Gameday Thread, Sun Bowl Rematch: TCU vs USC

[QuilterFrawg]

He can rewrite history all he wants, but he posted that during the 4th quarter of the game at a point in the broadcast when they were talking about our comebacks and discussing Bram's story.

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So he was saying that no one cared about Bram's story? Could he really be such a heartless [ "illegitimate Baylor boy" ]?

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

Vegas lines have -0- to do with which team may be stronger.
The lines are only a reflection of which team has the greatest amount of bets placed in their favor.
No one should be surprised that a 9-3 USC Big10 team with over 500k living alums would have a greater amount of favored bets than TCU & its 100k living alums.

Nope. Lines move to even out the amount of money on each side, not the number of bets. Lines absolutely reflect relative strength of the teams. not perfectly, but pretty close. If they didn’t, the money would be lopsided and professional gamblers would crush them. Vegas didn’t get those tall buildings by losing money.

 

[tetonfrog]

So he was saying that no one cared about Bram's story? Could he really be such a heartless [ "illegitimate Baylor boy" ]?

Yes.

Have you ever watched the 30 for 30 on USC when Leinert was there? He was the smuggiest dude on that show. It is why he failed in the NFL, too.

Why isn't he explaining his post? Because he knows his bosses at Fox TV will call him out over it. Total Brilesbag.

 

[Wexahu]

Nope. Lines move to even out the amount of money on each side, not the number of bets. Lines absolutely reflect relative strength of the teams. not perfectly, but pretty close. If they didn’t, the money would be lopsided and professional gamblers would crush them. Vegas didn’t get those tall buildings by losing money.

Yep. People don’t like hearing it, but the best way to gauge a team’s strength is by looking at point spreads. The best team doesn’t always win of course, but if Vegas didn’t set lines based on the true quality of the teams playing, they’d lose. And they aren’t gonna lose in the long run.

 

[TxFrog1999]

 

[NewFrogFan]

So you agree with the press; that TCU with veteran Seals is a lesser team than USC without 12 starters (whatever the number was)? If so, then maybe not a good reflection on where TCU football is now. And the TCU QB next year will be starting from scratch.

From my observation 15 rows from the field, yes.

 

[TxFrog1999]

So he was saying that no one cared about Bram's story? Could he really be such a heartless [ "illegitimate Baylor boy" ]?

Unsure because the tweet wasn't a reply or a quote tweet so it lacks all context, but since many of his defenders are trying to claim the tweet wasn't made during the game (it was) and was about something else (no context) I thought it best to point out the actual timing of his tweet.

 

[NewFrogFan]

Yes.

Have you ever watched the 30 for 30 on USC when Leinert was there? He was the smuggiest dude on that show. It is why he failed in the NFL, too.

Why isn't he explaining his post? Because he knows his bosses at Fox TV will call him out over it. Total Brilesbag.

Funny, when I want to really get a story about college football, I never see Matt Leinart as a source.

 

[Froggy Style]

We actually ran less and threw more in this game than our average for the season. 56.3% passing plays last night. 51.3% passing plays during the regular season.

Because we were winning in most of the other games which allows you to run out the clock.

Apples and oranges comparison.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

Because we were winning in most of the other games which allows you to run out the clock.

Apples and oranges comparison.

So you think passing more often made our offense look more balanced the other night? Interesting opinion. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Ryann Zeller]

TCU has a long history with the Alamo Bowl, and this one followed a familiar script rooted in resilience and program DNA.

Midnite Madness and Another Alamo Bowl, Another Fairytale Ending

Forget the Alamo? Are you kidding? How could any Horned Frog ever forget the Alamo? Much less San Antonio, the Alamodome or the Alamo Bowl? In fact, after TCU’

www.si.com

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Nope. Lines move to even out the amount of money on each side, not the number of bets. Lines absolutely reflect relative strength of the teams. not perfectly, but pretty close. If they didn’t, the money would be lopsided and professional gamblers would crush them. Vegas didn’t get those tall buildings by losing money.

Lines absolutely do NOT show the strength of either team. They only reflect the public’s behavior as to where the greatest amounts of money are bet.
Sportsbooks are trying to price the bet, so that public behavior spreads wagers evenly. The ideal scenario for a sportsbook is roughly equal money wagered on each team, and that is why a betting line is applied. It allows the book to collect the normal 10% vig commission with minimal risk.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

Lines absolutely do NOT show the strength of either team. They only reflect the public’s behavior as to where the greatest amounts of money are bet.
Sportsbooks are trying to price the bet, so that public behavior spreads wagers evenly. The ideal scenario for a sportsbook is roughly equal money wagered on each team, and that is why a betting line is applied. It allows the book to collect the 10% vig commission with minimal risk.

First line is wrong. The rest is correct. The purpose of the line is to even the money out, not show team strength, but in practice, the only way to do that is for the line to represent relative team strength. It’s a very simple concept.

 

[TopFrog]

Tempting

TCU Horned Frogs Football: The Game is Over Shirt - TCU x BreakingT

Wear the Moment® when the refs had to double check what TCU already knew in San Antonio: the game was over. Officially licensed by TCU Super-soft, durable tees and hoodies Designed and printed in the USA Free returns and exchanges

breakingt.com

 

[TopFrog]

 

[TopFrog]

 

[82 Frog Fever]

First line is wrong. The rest is correct.

So you think public/fan betting behavior is a determiner of a team’s strength?
Casual betting fans have very little information about any team’s strengths or weaknesses beyond what coaches & journalists have said, which is also just superficial.
Sportsbooks also limit betting knowledge by setting maximum betting limits and individual betting limits to prevent large bettors with greater inside knowledge from betting large amounts & raising risk.
Therefore the actual knowledge behind most bets is quite limited.
Just like journalist know very little when they pick who is going to win the B12, the vast majority of bettors know very little, especially in the 1st half of the season.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

So you think public/fan betting behavior is a determiner of a team’s strength?
Casual betting fans have very little information about any team’s strengths or weaknesses beyond what coaches & journalists have said, which is also just superficial.
Sportsbooks also limit betting knowledge by setting maximum betting limits and individual betting limits to prevent large bettors with greater inside knowledge from betting large amounts & raising risk.
Therefore the actual knowledge behind most bets is quite limited.
Just like journalist know very little when they pick who is going to win the B12, the vast majority of bettors know very little, especially in the 1st half of the season.

I agree that most bettors know little, but the pros bet more and will hammer a line that gets too far afield of relative team strength.

 

[Wexahu]

So you think public/fan betting behavior is a determiner of a team’s strength?
Casual betting fans have very little information about any team’s strengths or weaknesses beyond what coaches & journalists have said, which is also just superficial.
Sportsbooks also limit betting knowledge by setting maximum betting limits and individual betting limits to prevent large bettors with greater inside knowledge from betting large amounts & raising risk.
Therefore the actual knowledge behind most bets is quite limited.
Just like journalist know very little when they pick who is going to win the B12, the vast majority of bettors know very little, especially in the 1st half of the season.

It’s not perfect, but it’s the best determiner. If you or anyone else thinks you know know more than the oddsmakers about how good teams are, you should be able to make a living gambling on games. Good luck.

 

[ShadowFrog]

So he was saying that no one cared about Bram's story? Could he really be such a heartless [ "illegitimate Baylor boy" ]?

Sure he could.