FWST: NCAA playing a shell game with college baseball seeds

[AggieFrog]

LeBreton sounds like he doesn't know much about college baseball - the polls have never meant much in regard to how regionals and national seeds are assigned. It's all about RPI and that's nothing new. It's why I didn't think the Frogs would get a national seed once it became obvious that things had to fall just right to even get into the top 15-20 - and it's why TCU ultimately missed out on one as noted.

TCU didn't get shafted - when you play in the 10th best baseball league you can't lose games against one the worst teams in that conference. You also have to win those mid-week Big XII matchups (the OU losses really hurt).

 

[Get Your Frogs Up]

QUOTE(monkeyfishfrog @ Jun 2 2010, 10:06 AM) [snapback]567123[/snapback]
I really don't think I'm alone in this...
I do say that I have no problem being matched up with Texas in the supers should we both advance. (And that's the important part... regionals are not a cakewalk and we have some traditional powers in our regional..) I relish the opportunity to play Texas (IF WE GET THERE). I wish we got to play Texas more, in every sport. This year, we've got a ridiculously strong team. We've had some great baseball teams, particularly recently, but not this good.

And personally, if we have to go through anyone on our way to Omaha... I want it to be Texas.



Agreed. I would be awesome to keep the team that mailed it in at their conference tournament because they only care about national championships from getting to the CWS and thus, according to their standards, stamp a huge fail on their season at their place.

 

[FrogsMcGee]

It's a Fort Worth article, so I would expect it to have a Texas-TCU slant, but it's not like TCU is the only team in this boat.

Arkansas is RPI #9 and is matched up with the #1 overall seed Arizona St.
Miami is RPI #8 and matched up with #3 seed Florida.
Fullerton is RPI #10 and ranked #8 but they are matched with RPI #6 UCLA.

When you get down to 16 teams, you are going to be playing a national power, or a team that upset a national power no matter what. Ultimately, I think we should be glad that as long as we win our fans will be able to travel to support our team. They could have shipped us to Virginia or something. Time to shut up and win.

 

[Houston Frog]

QUOTE(FrogsMcGee @ Jun 2 2010, 11:04 AM) [snapback]567151[/snapback]
It's a Fort Worth article, so I would expect it to have a Texas-TCU slant, but it's not like TCU is the only team in this boat.

Arkansas is RPI #9 and is matched up with the #1 overall seed Arizona St.
Miami is RPI #8 and matched up with #3 seed Florida.
Fullerton is RPI #10 and ranked #8 but they are matched with RPI #6 UCLA.

When you get down to 16 teams, you are going to be playing a national power, or a team that upset a national power no matter what. Ultimately, I think we should be glad that as long as we win our fans will be able to travel to support our team. They could have shipped us to Virginia or something. Time to shut up and win.

Agree completely

 

[Metropolis777]

QUOTE(Duquesne Frog @ Jun 2 2010, 09:58 AM) [snapback]567117[/snapback]
Well, I'm glad I didn't post my guess which was get a life-size cutout of Tim Weiser naked and then cover him with little pieces of sticky clothing and then pull one off after each win ...

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
BIG WINNER!

 

[InnerloopFrog]

They wanted to expand the interest in College baseball by "giving" UCONN a regional at the expense of others.

How about giving some of the new blood that is conming up a break and spread the Super Regionals to some new places rather than like Austin where I am guessing it has been the last 50 years in a row if you want to build more interest.

Either make it pure and seed all the way thru including the Super Regionals or spread it around. Don't try to stradle both sides.

I think citing AF as a barometer of how good this team is is a farce. Those were fluke games and no sign of the talent.

Now if you want to argue the losses to Rice, OU and Baylor as measuring sticks that makes more sense.

AF is simply an excuse or you can't dismiss an 0-3 finish and getting in the tournament as an at large bid and give a team the #2 National seed. The fact that UT blew out their conference isn't proof of their superiority. Last year's 1 and 7 Regional performance by the Big 12 is suggestive they aren't the confrence they were a few years back.

Parity stinks for the old guard and it would be interesting to see the playing filed leveled some more.

Go Frogs!

 

[West Coast Johnny]

Why does Florida State as a #1 seed have to play in the Conneticut region? Because NCAA baseball wants to have a presence in the North Eastern market. One more example of how athletic quality gets screwed over in the name of media markets. Hello Rutgers! Your seat at the big-10 table is ready!

 

[Dogfrog]

QUOTE(AggieFrog @ Jun 2 2010, 10:42 AM) [snapback]567144[/snapback]
LeBreton sounds like he doesn't know much about college baseball - the polls have never meant much in regard to how regionals and national seeds are assigned. It's all about RPI and that's nothing new. It's why I didn't think the Frogs would get a national seed once it became obvious that things had to fall just right to even get into the top 15-20 - and it's why TCU ultimately missed out on one as noted.

TCU didn't get shafted - when you play in the 10th best baseball league you can't lose games against one the worst teams in that conference. You also have to win those mid-week Big XII matchups (the OU losses really hurt).


Don't think you read very carefully. He knows it's all about RPI. He's just saying it shouldn't be.

 

[TopFrog]

QUOTE(Dogfrog @ Jun 2 2010, 11:36 AM) [snapback]567174[/snapback]
Don't think you read very carefully. He knows it's all about RPI. He's just saying it shouldn't be.


That was how I read it as well.

 

[Spike]

QUOTE(West Coast Johnny @ Jun 2 2010, 04:25 PM) [snapback]567166[/snapback]
Why does Florida State as a #1 seed have to play in the Conneticut region? Because NCAA baseball wants to have a presence in the North Eastern market. One more example of how athletic quality gets screwed over in the name of media markets. Hello Rutgers! Your seat at the big-10 table is ready!


This is the most baffling part to me. I was under the impression that a #2 host was for cases where the team deserving a #1 seed lacked facilities to host. FSU does not have that problem.

 

[PurpleBlood87]

QUOTE(Metropolis777 @ Jun 2 2010, 09:35 AM) [snapback]567098[/snapback]
Sums it all up.

So I guess there's only one thing left to do.........

"Win the whole bleeping thing."

 

[PurpleBlood87]

QUOTE(AggieFrog @ Jun 2 2010, 10:42 AM) [snapback]567144[/snapback]
LeBreton sounds like he doesn't know much about college baseball - the polls have never meant much in regard to how regionals and national seeds are assigned. It's all about RPI and that's nothing new. It's why I didn't think the Frogs would get a national seed once it became obvious that things had to fall just right to even get into the top 15-20 - and it's why TCU ultimately missed out on one as noted.

TCU didn't get shafted - when you play in the 10th best baseball league you can't lose games against one the worst teams in that conference. You also have to win those mid-week Big XII matchups (the OU losses really hurt).

Says the guy who thought A&M would be a No. 1 seed in UConn.

You need to drop the Frog from your name. Sorry you are an Aggie above all.

Gil's point was that maybe RPI isn't the only thing to judge a team on.

 

[PurpleBlood87]

QUOTE(InnerloopFrog @ Jun 2 2010, 11:25 AM) [snapback]567164[/snapback]
I think citing AF as a barometer of how good this team is is a farce. Those were fluke games and no sign of the talent.

One loss to Air Force might have been good enough to still get the Frogs a National Bid. But two losses, that is a different story.

 

[TCUFrogs]

Great article!

Tim Weiser is a snake oil salesmen par excellence. POS

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

I think RPI has been exposed as regionally biased in college baseball more than any other sport (see below). You look at Boyd's ISRs or Nolan's NPIs and we are commensurate with our poll rankings. I think they need to officially ditch the RPIs as a guide. It just doesn't work as well in baseball as basketball.


http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/faq.html

QUOTE
Although things are improving, there's still a very limited amount of inter-regional play in college baseball. This means that in sections of the country with fewer Division I baseball schools, such as the West, the pool of available opponents tends to be smaller, which tends to pull winning percentages towards .500. As a result of the RPI only considering two levels of interconnectedness, teams from these regions tend to be underranked by the RPI's.

 

[Houston Frog]

QUOTE(KillerFrog InD KitchenSink @ Jun 2 2010, 01:32 PM) [snapback]567246[/snapback]
I think RPI has been exposed as regionally biased in college baseball more than any other sport (see below). You look at Boyd's ISRs or Nolan's NPIs and we are commensurate with our poll rankings. I think they need to officially ditch the RPIs as a guide. It just doesn't work as well in baseball as basketball.


http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/faq.html

The way I understand it is that RPI does not take into account margin of victory, while ISR and NPI do. It only takes into account your win/loss record and the win/loss record of the teams you play (and the teams they play). This puts teams who don't play in a tough conference at a distinct disadvantage. We are able to make up for our mediocre strength of schedule in the ISR by beating the crap out of everyone, but aren't able to do that in the RPI.

If you look at our average margin of defeat, it is very low.... when teams beat us, they barely beat us (I think I read we only lost two or three games by 3+ runs). But when you look at our average margin of victory, it is very high.... when we beat teams, we generally kick the crap out of them. We don't get any credit for that in the RPI, and I believe we should.

Of course, I could be wrong about how all of those are calculated, so feel free to correct me if I am misinformed (I'm talking to you FrogsMcGee).

 

[FrogsMcGee]

You are correct. It's all about you and your opponents win/loss percentage. It gives no consideration to home or away games, which is the real flaw in the system (other than tiny bonuses for road wins over non-conference top 25/50/75 RPI teams).

There is no incentive for a team like LSU (who didn't play a single non-conference road game this year) or Arizona (who didn't leave their home stadium until 2 months into the season) to challenge themselves with road games. It's all about winning percentage, so you might as well stay at home and give yourself a better chance to win.

The reward that a TCU gets for going on the road and winning 2/3 against Cal St Fullerton is not nearly what it should be.

edit: LSU did play one "away" game "at" Tulane. Missed that.

Also, although the formula itself doesn't penalize a team for not travelling, we all saw what happened to LSU and Arizona in the 2nd half of the season when they had to hit the road. Both teams were at risk of not even making the postseason with a week to play, despite high RPI's.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

I think it should just be thrown out as even a guide. It's flawed regionally, it's flawed for home/away, and is basically used as a rationalization for screwing certain teams not in the conference that the RPI is biased toward.

FWIW, ISRs don't include MOV. Not sure about NPIs. I think the committee shold admit the RPI is flawed and search for a better alternative (be it ISRs or whatever). To use a system everyone basically admits is flawed, even as a minor factor, is kinda silly.

 

[FROGDADDY]

[quote name='satis1103' date='Jun 2 2010, 09:03 AM' post='567079'

In my opinion, had it not been the losses to Air Force they would have found some other reason to put us just outside the top 8 seeds, such as the MWC's pathetic conference ranking or an RPI just outside the first 8.
[/quote]


I don't see any reason why they would have done this. They've awarded Rice multiple super regionals in the past and they had the same issues you just mentioned. Ditto for Fullerton and Long Beach. We lost TWICE to AFA. FREAKING TWICE. The right to complain went out the window right there.

 

[FrogsMcGee]

I think they should use a computer composite like the BCS uses, and eliminate the highest and lowest scores. Problem is selecting which computer rankings to use and auditing them to be sure they don't use any sketchy variables. There aren't as many computer nerds following college baseball as there are for football, so getting 6 good rankings might be difficult. Plus, it takes a better system and more dedicated person to track 200+ teams playing 56+ games each than only 120 teams playing 12 games each.