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FWST: Good news (maybe) for TCU football: Isn't the BYU point spread suspiciously low?

TopFrog

TopFrog

Lifelong Frog

Good news (maybe) for TCU football: Isn't the BYU point spread suspiciously low?​

By Jim Barnes

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Why isn’t BYU a bigger favorite over TCU football on Saturday?

After living in Las Vegas for 12 years, with a fair amount of time spent betting on sports and covering gambling as a journalist, sometimes my radar goes up about a point spread that “just doesn’t look right.”

BYU -3.5 at home against the Horned Frogs just doesn’t look right.

The Cougars (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) are ranked No. 12 in the country and should be focused after suffering their first loss of the season last week, 29-7 at Texas Tech.

Paywall link: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/article312907226.html

Full article link: https://www.newsbreak.com/fort-wort...l-isn-t-the-byu-point-spread-suspiciously-low
 
An-Cap Frog

An-Cap Frog

Member
Frognosticator said:
BYU looked quite mortal against Tech. They couldn’t do anything on offense. I think that’s the reason the spread is so narrow
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Going from memory here, but I think Tech is #1 in EPA against the run and TCU is ~3. BYU is predominately a running team.

On edit: Parker Fleming says TCU is #13.
 
An-Cap Frog

An-Cap Frog

Member
Also, interesting with the stats...

TCU's defensive run game is #2 in YAC allowed and #4 in missed tackle rate. BYU's rushing attack is 20th in YAC and 113 in missed tackle rate. Meaning BYU isn't going to avoid getting tackled but is very good at moving the pile. It will be interesting if that plays out in short yardage situations.

BYU has a horrible scramble EPA (sack EPA is good) in the passing game, so in clear passing downs, if TCU gets pressure, they may be able to get off the field.
 
82 Frog Fever

82 Frog Fever

Active Member
An-Cap Frog said:
Also, interesting with the stats...

TCU's defensive run game is #2 in YAC allowed and #4 in missed tackle rate. BYU's rushing attack is 20th in YAC and 113 in missed tackle rate. Meaning BYU isn't going to avoid getting tackled but is very good at moving the pile. It will be interesting if that plays out in short yardage situations.

BYU has a horrible scramble EPA (sack EPA is good) in the passing game, so in clear passing downs, if TCU gets pressure, they may be able to get off the field.
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It will be a real test of TCUs defense.
BYU is the toughest rushing team we’ll face this year, ranked 11th in Power 4 team rushing. In order to slow down a now healthy LJ Martin (220 Lb RB / 4.4 sec 40 yds.) running behind a 312 lb. avg. upperclassman OL that rushes 40 times/game, means TCU will really have to load the box.
We‘re gonna need Markis Deal, KE-O, & Namdi to show up big tonite. If we can slow them down to 165 rushing, and Hoover has great night, we might have a chance.
 
NewFrogFan

NewFrogFan

Full Member
82 Frog Fever said:
It will be a real test of TCUs defense.
BYU is the toughest rushing team we’ll face this year, ranked 11th in Power 4 team rushing. In order to slow down a now healthy LJ Martin (220 Lb RB / 4.4 sec 40 yds.) running behind a 312 lb. avg. upperclassman OL that rushes 40 times/game, means TCU will really have to load the box.
We‘re gonna need Markis Deal, KE-O, & Namdi to show up big tonite. If we can slow them down to 165 rushing, and Hoover has great night, we might have a chance.
Click to expand...
They did as you expected, TCU did nothing.
 

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