Oh hey friends!
Once every other year, myself and the Mustang Nation are forced to travel 40 minutes west to see how the other 99% lives. If you thought we were arrogant and insufferable before, well I'm not sure if you heard but we were just invited to a POWER THREE conference and now we really think our stuff don't stink. You guys share a conference with Houston and Tech? Gasp. We will be comingling with our academic peers (Duke, Stanford, UVA) as well as other football powerhouses who, like us, have won multiple national titles (FSU, Miami, Clemson). Yeah, we're hot, we know we're hot, and we know that you know that we're hot.
Fortunately or unfortunately, this will be one of the last Skillet meetings for the foreseeable future since TCU decided to kill off a 100+ year rivalry because they're scared of losing to SMU. I'm sure you're all excited for Arkansas State and whatever other body bag games you muster up in the years to come. I'm disappointed in all of you, but I will not belabor the point.
As for the game, as usual, we don't really know much about these teams in late September. SMU made short work of Louisiana Tech (38-14, 31-0 at half) and Prairie View (I don't even remember the final score it was so bad). Our one test so far was at Oklahoma. We outgained the Sooners but couldn't sustain drives; it was 14-11 OU in the fourth quarter and yours truly was talking smack in the stands before OU scored two late TDs to seal the game and win 28-11. Is Oklahoma any good this year? I don't know. Dillon Gabriel and their offense was not impressive. Their defense was; Brent Venables knows what he's doing on that side of the ball. I honestly have no idea who in college football is good this year through three weeks.
As for the Ponies...
Offensively, Tanner Mordecai is out (transferred to Wisconsin for a 13th year of eligibility) and former 4-star Preston Stone is in after waiting his turn for two years. He's managed the offense pretty well so far without doing too much. I thought Lashlee played it very safe with him at OU and I'll be interested to see if he opens up the offense more for him on Saturday. The running back group features two former 4-star RBs in Jaylan Knighton (Miami transfer) and LJ Johnson (A&M transfer) as well as former 5-star Camar Wheaton (Alabama transfer). It's been somewhat of running back by committee so far; Wheaton missed the first game due to suspension and Knighton missed the last game. Despite the pedigree this group really hasn't impressed me so far this year; I thought our OL would be more dominant run blocking given the competition we've faced so far and that there's three seniors and an experienced junior center starting. I would imagine that Knighton and Johnson will get the majority of the carries on Saturday. As for the receiving corps, we have a bunch of guys that look good on paper but we're still waiting for a dog to emerge. In recent years we've had a Courtland Sutton, James Proche or Rashee Rice that we can go to when we needed a big play; this year, no one has really emerged yet. That may have to do somewhat with Lashlee's conservative play calling to date but we need someone to step up sooner rather than later. Jordan Kerley (#1) would be the most obvious candidate.
On the other side of the ball, this is the best defense SMU has had since the death penalty. It was atrocious last year and we responded by bringing in thirteen defensive contributors in the portal. Standouts include Miami transfer DLs Jordan Miller and Elijah Roberts, Temple transfer LB Kobe Wilson and Stanford transfer DB Jonathan McGill. We held OU in check for 3.5 quarters despite a blocked punt and an extremely untimely turnover. I don't expect this to be a 40-30 something game like it's been in recent years.
Lashlee loves to use establish the run game to set up downfield shots and I would say that will be the key to this game for SMU. If we can run the ball effectively, sustain drives and keep our defense fresh, I like our chances. If you guys can bottle up our run game like OU did and we have to rely on Stone throwing the ball 40 times with TCU sitting back and not having to respect the run, then we're probably in for a long day.
I've gone back and forth on how I think this one ends but given how well TCU's defense has played the run this year I have a hard time picking the Ponies until I can see more consistency from our downfield passing game. I will say 31-27 TCU. Let's hope I'm wrong!