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    EECU the card that wins TCU championships

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Wexahu

Full Member
The missed headline is how few road games they have played - an average of four per year!

Arky, Georgia, Florida, and LSU are among the teams with a small number of road games compared to other schools.

Maybe that's how the SEC has looked good and stayed highly rated...
Yeah, that's it.

Has nothing to do with being large, flagship state schools with huge budgets smack dab in the middle of the best recruiting area of the country, more NFL draft picks (by a wide margin) than any other league for the last 30 years, and fans that are crazy about college football that fill 70,000-100,000 seat stadiums every Saturday.
 

froginmn

Fan Club
Yeah, that's it.

Has nothing to do with being large, flagship state schools with huge budgets smack dab in the middle of the best recruiting area of the country, more NFL draft picks (by a wide margin) than any other league for the last 30 years, and fans that are crazy about college football that fill 70,000-100,000 seat stadiums every Saturday.
Of course they have several very good teams and everything plays into it, but when you set up your schedule with only home non conference and many of those games are the kind of opponents even our fans scoff at (New Mexico, Prairie View, Sam Houston St, App St, Massachusetts, ULM, ACU, McNeese, New Mex State) you don't risk a loss that would drop your rating.

BTW those teams I mentioned were all on the Aggie schedule from 21-24 so they played 2-3 of those games each year. They added decent H&H against Miami (which was barely .500, though) and now ND, so at least they have improved the schedule.

If they are so loaded with talent, though, they shouldn't be afraid to go on the road and play good nonconference teams. Only a few SEC schools have done that; many have played four home games including two puppies.
 

SW toad

Active Member
Man I hope we have patience with Craig. His bona fides are there- I think he just needs some more time to build that chemistry with his receivers. Luckily the schedule sets up well to give him that. I personally think Schobel should get no more than a few series against the Sisters of the poor, and only if the game is out of reach in the 4th quarter vs UNC.
While I agree with you on most of your input, i disagree with this one. Schobel needs more than a few series against Ark ST & Grambling. Like I said, at least a half for both inferior opponents.

I like the background on Craig. Kiper and a couple other outlets said he was/is NFL talent. Talented coaches should be able to vet out in the 1st 3 games how bon fide Craig is.

Here is the short list of 5-star QBs that coaches almost were fired for having too much patience.

Michael Hawkins OU now West Virginia.

Malachi Nelson USC, Boise Utep Syracuse

Jackson Arnold QB OU, Auburn UNLV

There are a dozen others.....

The key is to find the balance. Easier said than done and that's why they pay the coaches 300k to 10 mil to figure out the balance.
 

McFroggin

Active Member
We’ll be fine its just different styles.
TCU under Sammis is switching to a pro-style offense prioritizing balance, passing efficiency, and a physical run game.
Under Briles it was a high tempo spread emphasizing speed, spacing, and creating big plays.
It’s likely there will be fewer big plays, fewer turnovers, & an improved run game.
Right now the major problem is receivers dropping passes.

You are focusing on how the coaches describe their style, but there is almost no difference in on-field results.

Sammis and Briles yards/attempt is minuscule with QB difference - Sammis higher ypa in 2025. That doesn’t support Briles with bigger play offense. Briles, pre-TCU with better O-line, averages more rushing, better ypc, and physical running backs.

You are comparing coach-speak and how they describe their offensive philosophy, but the statistics describe more of the opposite of what you typed.
 

Potlicker

Active Member
No doubt there will be a noticeable drop. Craig clearly is having issues with deep throws. Can’t imagine that will get better in games. One upside with him is that he can and will run the ball.

Honestly, I’m fine if we’re a bit boring this year on offense. As long as we’re efficient and don’t turn the ball over.
I think the offensive approach of Sammis is sound, The days of being short on discipline in our offensive scheme and gun slinging are in the rear view mirror. Craig obviously has some talent and smarts (GPA fluctuated between 3.5 and 4 at Harvard). By conference, we should know really what we have and if we can make a run,
 

ShreveFrog

Full Member
I imagine Craig gets the entire 3rd quarters vs. Grambling and ASU. Sounds like he needs more game reps to get in sync with receivers, especially on routes deeper than 15 yards. Let him make some halftime adjustments. I think you do that with most QB's early in the season. Schoebel will get at least a couple of possessions in both those games. Maybe see Daulton, too.
 

82 Frog Fever

Active Member
You are focusing on how the coaches describe their style, but there is almost no difference in on-field results.

Sammis and Briles yards/attempt is minuscule with QB difference - Sammis higher ypa in 2025. That doesn’t support Briles with bigger play offense. Briles, pre-TCU with better O-line, averages more rushing, better ypc, and physical running backs.

You are comparing coach-speak and how they describe their offensive philosophy, but the statistics describe more of the opposite of what you typed.
There are minuscule differences only when Sammis has a 7th year senior QB like Joe Fagnano to throw the ball. Sammis coaches to his strengths, and last year that was Fagnano. A 69% passer, who only threw 1 Int.
Go back to 2024, Sammis’ offense was completely different. In 2024 Sammis Rushed the ball 57% of the time and had more yards Rushing than Passing.
Jaden Craig is not Fagnano. He’s not a 69% passer, and he can’t throw 450 passes without double digit interceptions. Craig had 7 interceptions with only 330 passes on the FCS level in 2025.

We will see much more balanced production. A 50/50 offense with efficient short & intermediate range passes & a physical run game.
 
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Wexahu

Full Member
Of course they have several very good teams and everything plays into it, but when you set up your schedule with only home non conference and many of those games are the kind of opponents even our fans scoff at (New Mexico, Prairie View, Sam Houston St, App St, Massachusetts, ULM, ACU, McNeese, New Mex State) you don't risk a loss that would drop your rating.

BTW those teams I mentioned were all on the Aggie schedule from 21-24 so they played 2-3 of those games each year. They added decent H&H against Miami (which was barely .500, though) and now ND, so at least they have improved the schedule.

If they are so loaded with talent, though, they shouldn't be afraid to go on the road and play good nonconference teams. Only a few SEC schools have done that; many have played four home games including two puppies.
I don't agree with their scheduling strategy, I absolutely hate the FCS crap, but it's not much different than other leagues. Maybe one game. When you've got a 90,000 seat stadium I suppose that makes a difference too in how you approach scheduling as for the willingness to play road games, just from a financial standpoint.

I just think it's ignorant to think that the SEC's success is tied to their scheduling or some other bias in the media or whatever. They get the best players because they are right in the backyard of so many good recruits and they fill huge stadiums every weekend, they pay their coaches the most money so presumably they have the best staffs, they have the largest budgets, football is easily the number one sport in the region, etc etc etc. Of course it's going to be the best league, how could they not? And it's honestly not all that close. The top half of the Big 10 is certainly on par but the bottom half is a good ways behind the bottom half of the SEC. Do they win all their games? Of course not. Do they have some teams that end up just not being very good? Yes.

LSU, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas went 6-18 in the SEC last year. Those are 3 programs with some pretty damn good history and resources, all of which have won national championships in recent history. Mississippi State isn't a terrible team and is 2-22 in the past three years. Even Arkansas, they start the year with two blowouts over cupcakes, lose by less than a FG at Ole Miss, then lose at 8-4 Memphis by a point, and end up 0-8 in the SEC. If you slip up a little in that league, you are dead.
 

CryptoMiner

Full Member
While I agree with you on most of your input, i disagree with this one. Schobel needs more than a few series against Ark ST & Grambling. Like I said, at least a half for both inferior opponents.

I like the background on Craig. Kiper and a couple other outlets said he was/is NFL talent. Talented coaches should be able to vet out in the 1st 3 games how bon fide Craig is.

Here is the short list of 5-star QBs that coaches almost were fired for having too much patience.

Michael Hawkins OU now West Virginia.

Malachi Nelson USC, Boise Utep Syracuse

Jackson Arnold QB OU, Auburn UNLV

There are a dozen others.....

The key is to find the balance. Easier said than done and that's why they pay the coaches 300k to 10 mil to figure out the balance.

Maybe the patience was justified as you can see by how many teams they played on, but also:

Michael Hawkins wasn't a 5 star QB, has thrown 147 passes for 950 yds 3 TDs and 2 Ints in 3 seasons

Malachi Nelson in 3 seasons thrown 110 passes for 1,291 yds 8 TDs and 9 Ints

Jackson Arnold in 3 seasons 3,293 yds 20 TDs and 8 ints and sacked an incredible 67 times
 

froginmn

Fan Club
I don't agree with their scheduling strategy, I absolutely hate the FCS crap, but it's not much different than other leagues. Maybe one game. When you've got a 90,000 seat stadium I suppose that makes a difference too in how you approach scheduling as for the willingness to play road games, just from a financial standpoint.

I just think it's ignorant to think that the SEC's success is tied to their scheduling or some other bias in the media or whatever. They get the best players because they are right in the backyard of so many good recruits and they fill huge stadiums every weekend, they pay their coaches the most money so presumably they have the best staffs, they have the largest budgets, football is easily the number one sport in the region, etc etc etc. Of course it's going to be the best league, how could they not? And it's honestly not all that close. The top half of the Big 10 is certainly on par but the bottom half is a good ways behind the bottom half of the SEC. Do they win all their games? Of course not. Do they have some teams that end up just not being very good? Yes.

LSU, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas went 6-18 in the SEC last year. Those are 3 programs with some pretty damn good history and resources, all of which have won national championships in recent history. Mississippi State isn't a terrible team and is 2-22 in the past three years. Even Arkansas, they start the year with two blowouts over cupcakes, lose by less than a FG at Ole Miss, then lose at 8-4 Memphis by a point, and end up 0-8 in the SEC. If you slip up a little in that league, you are dead.
I don't generally disagree and maybe my comment sounded stronger than I intended it to.

But the difference of one game or two can be significant. 4 home non con games, many against cupcakes, means that you start out with a 4-0 record (and "validate" your preseason ranking). If these teams were playing road games against decent teams, any losses would drop their individual rankings, their collective rankings, and their strength of schedule. Wins would affirm them.

Those teams that went 3-18 did that because they weren't as good as their history might indicate. Florida lost (at home) to UCF.

With bowl games now being questioned as real tests because of opt outs, it's more important than ever for early non con matchups to happen.

Seeing that graphic with the low number of road games by multiple SEC teams was a bit surprising.
 

Mean Purple

Active Member
I don't generally disagree and maybe my comment sounded stronger than I intended it to.

But the difference of one game or two can be significant. 4 home non con games, many against cupcakes, means that you start out with a 4-0 record (and "validate" your preseason ranking). If these teams were playing road games against decent teams, any losses would drop their individual rankings, their collective rankings, and their strength of schedule. Wins would affirm them.

Those teams that went 3-18 did that because they weren't as good as their history might indicate. Florida lost (at home) to UCF.

With bowl games now being questioned as real tests because of opt outs, it's more important than ever for early non con matchups to happen.

Seeing that graphic with the low number of road games by multiple SEC teams was a bit surprising.
Yup.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I don't generally disagree and maybe my comment sounded stronger than I intended it to.

But the difference of one game or two can be significant. 4 home non con games, many against cupcakes, means that you start out with a 4-0 record (and "validate" your preseason ranking). If these teams were playing road games against decent teams, any losses would drop their individual rankings, their collective rankings, and their strength of schedule. Wins would affirm them.

Those teams that went 3-18 did that because they weren't as good as their history might indicate. Florida lost (at home) to UCF.

With bowl games now being questioned as real tests because of opt outs, it's more important than ever for early non con matchups to happen.

Seeing that graphic with the low number of road games by multiple SEC teams was a bit surprising.
4-0 vs 3-0. For really good teams it makes little difference because they'd probably win the extra game anyway.

The Big 12 as a conference plays four OOC P4 road games this year.....ASU @ A&M, Colorado @ Ga Tech, ISU @ Iowa and UCF @ Pitt. That's it. The SEC has seven OOC P4 road games.

I get it that historically most (not all) of the SEC has historically played an extra cream puff game but the impact that has gets overstated. Some of those teams have also consistently played big time opponents. As a whole they still play the toughest schedules in the country. Because the fallacy is thinking that just because an SEC team goes 6-6, and 2-6 in the conference that they are bad team.
 

froginmn

Fan Club
4-0 vs 3-0. For really good teams it makes little difference because they'd probably win the extra game anyway.

I've never liked the "this team would probably win" game; I think it's more interesting for the teams to play so we can see it.

The Big 12 as a conference plays four OOC P4 road games this year.....ASU @ A&M, Colorado @ Ga Tech, ISU @ Iowa and UCF @ Pitt. That's it. The SEC has seven OOC P4 road games.

I didn't mention the Big 12 at all; I was commenting on the graphic that shows how many games the SEC played during that time.

I get it that historically most (not all) of the SEC has historically played an extra cream puff game but the impact that has gets overstated.
So strength of schedule is overstated.

As a whole they still play the toughest schedules in the country.
Oh wait, there's the opposite argument.

Hell, the SEC conference disagrees with you about non con schedules.

Because the fallacy is thinking that just because an SEC team goes 6-6, and 2-6 in the conference that they are bad team.
That is a silly brainwashed statement that perpetuates the fallacy that all SEC teams are good.

Look, the overall numbers from that graphic show that on average, this many road games were played by conference over those five years:

Big 12 27.2
ACC 26.2
Big 10 25.1
SEC 22.75

Home field advantage is a big thing, especially in the SEC as you point out. So they shouldn't have the advantage of playing so few non con road games.

The SEC has mandated that schools need to play better nonconference games, so they seem to think that matters even if you don't. We need more comparison points as we're trying to figure out who belongs in the playoffs (and who should get home games).

The difference between the Big 10 and SEC isn't massive, and both the ACC and Big 12 have teams at the top (playoff caliber) who also aren't far off.

The SEC hasn't won the last two playoffs and didn't have a good year last year (one win against another conference and that was Tulane).
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I've never liked the "this team would probably win" game; I think it's more interesting for the teams to play so we can see it.



I didn't mention the Big 12 at all; I was commenting on the graphic that shows how many games the SEC played during that time.


So strength of schedule is overstated.


Oh wait, there's the opposite argument.

Hell, the SEC conference disagrees with you about non con schedules.


That is a silly brainwashed statement that perpetuates the fallacy that all SEC teams are good.

Look, the overall numbers from that graphic show that on average, this many road games were played by conference over those five years:

Big 12 27.2
ACC 26.2
Big 10 25.1
SEC 22.75

Home field advantage is a big thing, especially in the SEC as you point out. So they shouldn't have the advantage of playing so few non con road games.

The SEC has mandated that schools need to play better nonconference games, so they seem to think that matters even if you don't. We need more comparison points as we're trying to figure out who belongs in the playoffs (and who should get home games).

The difference between the Big 10 and SEC isn't massive, and both the ACC and Big 12 have teams at the top (playoff caliber) who also aren't far off.

The SEC hasn't won the last two playoffs and didn't have a good year last year (one win against another conference and that was Tulane).
If you don't like the "this team would probably win" thing, why are you doing it? You pretend that SEC teams are automatically 4-0 in OCC by virtue of their scheduling and everyone else is trying to scratch and claw their way to 3-0. The difference in scheduling just isn't that much, and they make up for it with what they go through in conference (heck, Florida played LSU, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee in conference and then threw in Miami, FSU and USF in OCC). Laughably hard compared to any non-SEC slate.

The difference in leagues is subjective, but IMO it's pretty substantial. Drop BYU into the SEC and I don't think there's any talk of them being a contender, that's for sure. Same for Tech although they seem intent on buying their way into the mix. Let's be real, who else in the Big 12 would be competitive in the SEC? Yeah, the SEC hasn't won the last two playoffs. So what, they aren't going to win every year, and the Big 10 has some really strong (and now very well paid) teams at the top too.
 

LisaLT

Active Member
I've never liked the "this team would probably win" game; I think it's more interesting for the teams to play so we can see it.



I didn't mention the Big 12 at all; I was commenting on the graphic that shows how many games the SEC played during that time.


So strength of schedule is overstated.


Oh wait, there's the opposite argument.

Hell, the SEC conference disagrees with you about non con schedules.


That is a silly brainwashed statement that perpetuates the fallacy that all SEC teams are good.

Look, the overall numbers from that graphic show that on average, this many road games were played by conference over those five years:

Big 12 27.2
ACC 26.2
Big 10 25.1
SEC 22.75

Home field advantage is a big thing, especially in the SEC as you point out. So they shouldn't have the advantage of playing so few non con road games.

The SEC has mandated that schools need to play better nonconference games, so they seem to think that matters even if you don't. We need more comparison points as we're trying to figure out who belongs in the playoffs (and who should get home games).

The difference between the Big 10 and SEC isn't massive, and both the ACC and Big 12 have teams at the top (playoff caliber) who also aren't far off.

The SEC hasn't won the last two playoffs and didn't have a good year last year (one win against another conference and that was Tulane).
Texas only has 4 ROAD games this year. How is that even possible? Same with Georgia. Same with Ole Miss.
 
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