• The KillerFrogs

Fall camp thread

Purp

Active Member
...it is less likely then ever that a RS Sr chooses to play that 5th year at the same school.
I see little evidence of this as a general rule. The only RS seniors going the grad xfer route are ones who aren't going to start in their final year of eligibility. In the scenario you're playing out Max would red shirt this year and start the next 3 years. As a 3 year starter I can't conceive of another kid supplanting him in his final year as the starter unless his first 3 years are mediocre. The kid's you're seeing transfer are not the ones who have started for 3 years.
 

Purp

Active Member
In general, I think this debate is ignoring a lot of factors. Sure, it's probably not a good idea to red shirt a kid who is a 100% lock to leave early for the draft, but when have we ever recruited one of those? Even Blacklock and Reagor weren't 5* sure fire 1st rounders as incoming freshmen and they may be the two best players we've ever had. Since you can't know that critiquing a decision to red shirt is Monday morning quarterbacking.

When Blacklock red shirted the 4 game rule didn't exist, which I think would have totally changed the decision on him. We all know now that he was already better than any DT on the roster his freshman year, but it's also not like him playing that year would have gotten us a conference title or playoff berth.

All that said, I think there's little doubt a kid is going to be better in his 5th year than he will in his 1st. Given that, and given you can't assume a kid is going to leave early for the draft when he's only a freshman, you want to preserve red shirts as often as possible.

Exceptions to this general rule are when it's obvious these freshmen are already better than your more experienced starters in years where you think they can help you win a lot more games or you have serious depth issues like we did last year due to all the injuries.
 

Froggish

Active Member
I see little evidence of this as a general rule. The only RS seniors going the grad xfer route are ones who aren't going to start in their final year of eligibility. In the scenario you're playing out Max would red shirt this year and start the next 3 years. As a 3 year starter I can't conceive of another kid supplanting him in his final year as the starter unless his first 3 years are mediocre. The kid's you're seeing transfer are not the ones who have started for 3 years.

I probably should have stated that differently. In my opinion it’s more likely then ever that a player transfers to greener pastures. That could happen anytime in his development, not necessarily at the time of graduation. You are right that if a kid is an incumbent starter then it’s far less likely that he would choose to move on via transfer. Close to zero. However for anyone to state that the amount of kids transferring is the same as ever is naive. It is absolutely true and it’s the reason the portal exists.
 

Purp

Active Member
I probably should have stated that differently. In my opinion it’s more likely then ever that a player transfers to greener pastures. That could happen anytime in his development, not necessarily at the time of graduation. You are right that if a kid is an incumbent starter then it’s far less likely that he would choose to move on via transfer. Close to zero. However for anyone to state that the amount of kids transferring is the same as ever is naive. It is absolutely true and it’s the reason the portal exists.
Grad xfers were moving a lot before the portal if they knew they weren't going to start in their final year of eligibility. The portal may be making it easier, but I'm not sure it's become a lot more common. Maybe I'm wrong. What is far more common due to the portal is the underclassman xfer.
 

Ron Swanson

Full Member
I probably should have stated that differently. In my opinion it’s more likely then ever that a player transfers to greener pastures. That could happen anytime in his development, not necessarily at the time of graduation. You are right that if a kid is an incumbent starter then it’s far less likely that he would choose to move on via transfer. Close to zero. However for anyone to state that the amount of kids transferring is the same as ever is naive. It is absolutely true and it’s the reason the portal exists.
It does happen though. Think about Russell Wilson transferring to Wisconsin from NC St. NC St sucked and he wanted to go somewhere else to try and win (and/or help his draft stock).

That being said, you don’t necessarily plan to suck so bad as a program in 3-4 years that elite players want to leave your school to go somewhere else for a chance to win. If that’s the case, you got a whole other problem.
 

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