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Bubble Watch: Will TCU Make the Dance This Year?

Will TCU Men's Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

  • Total voters
    51
Ryann Zeller

Ryann Zeller

OWNER
Frog Nation Poll: Will TCU Make the Dance This Year?

With the late-season surge, TCU Men's basketball is firmly in the NCAA Tournament's bubble conversation. Vote in the poll and share your thoughts.
 
This Ain't Chopped Liver

This Ain't Chopped Liver

Active Member
The Frogs are going to be in and now it is time to hope for a bracket seed that gives the best chance to advance to the second weekend in the Sweet Sixteen, and that is probably not an 8 or 9 seed, then having to play a #1 seed to get there. Lunardi had the Frogs as a 10 seed, before last night’s win, which would pair the Frogs with a #2 seed in the second round.

Current #1 seeds are Duke, Michigan, Arizona and UConn and I don’t care to mess with them.

Current #2 seeds are Florida, Houston, Michigan State and Illinois which look more beatable to me.

Current #3 seeds are Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa State and Gonzaga.

I don’t want to lose to get an 11 seed, but I would prefer to be one of the two 11 seeds with a bye than being an 8 or 9 seed. An 11 seed plays #3 seed in the second round.
 
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JogginFrog

JogginFrog

Active Member
This Ain't Chopped Liver said:
The Frogs are going to be in and now it is time to worry about the seed. I want a bracket slot that gives the best chance to advance to the second weekend in the Sweet Sixteen, and that is probably not an 8 or 9 seed, then having to play a #1 seed to get there. Lunardi had the Frogs as a 10 seed before last night’s win.

Current #1 seeds are Duke, Michigan, Arizona and UConn and I don’t care to mess with them.

Current #2 seeds are Florida, Houston, Michigan State and Illinois which look more beatable to me.
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The Frogs may not be a team that others want to see as the 9 or 10 seed in their bracket. Given how many of the top teams TCU has played, the likely matchups are fairly narrow. Michigan State or Illinois are the most likely second-round opponents if TCU doesn't rise to a 9. Duke or UConn if the latter.

Seeing the second weekend would be good for the fans and for recruiting--but it would be cool to see the Frogs go up against a top seed, too. Lunardi currently has the Frogs as a 10 seed, matched with Villanova in Round 1, followed by Michigan State and then Duke/Gonzaga. Basketball royalty the whole way.
 
F

Frog Attack II

Active Member
It's the tourney .. gonna be a tough draw (for both parties) either way.... I say for now, just focus on beating Cincy and then win a game (or 2) in the Big 12 tourney.... I'm not sure that we have a team that's big enough to beat AZ but we have played everyone else really tough and could be a tough out.
 
bmoney214

bmoney214

Full Member
JogginFrog said:
The Frogs may not be a team that others want to see as the 9 or 10 seed in their bracket. Given how many of the top teams TCU has played, the likely matchups are fairly narrow. Michigan State or Illinois are the most likely second-round opponents if TCU doesn't rise to a 9. Duke or UConn if the latter.

Seeing the second weekend would be good for the fans and for recruiting--but it would be cool to see the Frogs go up against a top seed, too. Lunardi currently has the Frogs as a 10 seed, matched with Villanova in Round 1, followed by Michigan State and then Duke/Gonzaga. Basketball royalty the whole way.
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Oh yea Gonzaga, time to get a lil payback if we make it that far.
 
KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

Active Member
This Ain't Chopped Liver said:
The Frogs are going to be in and now it is time to hope for a bracket seed that gives the best chance to advance to the second weekend in the Sweet Sixteen, and that is probably not an 8 or 9 seed, then having to play a #1 seed to get there. Lunardi had the Frogs as a 10 seed, before last night’s win, which would pair the Frogs with a #2 seed in the second round.

Current #1 seeds are Duke, Michigan, Arizona and UConn and I don’t care to mess with them.

Current #2 seeds are Florida, Houston, Michigan State and Illinois which look more beatable to me.

Current #3 seeds are Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa State and Gonzaga.

I don’t want to lose to get an 11 seed, but I would prefer to be one of the two 11 seeds with a bye than being an 8 or 9 seed. An 11 seed plays #3 seed in the second round.
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11 seed with a bye is arguably the positioned seed in the 8-11 range for a run. Obviously the 8/9 is basically a toss up so better chance of a win in first round, but 1s are just such a hard second round draw. Here is all time record for each round for each seed:

1772743023332.png

For the sweet 16 11 seed has the 8th best % of any seed, for the elite 8 the 7th best (tied) and for the final 4 the 6th best (also tied). Obviously if you have to half those with a play in game, doesn't have the same probability, but the 11 seed with a bye is the best spot for a Cinderella run. The 1 seed in the second round is such a wall for the 8/9 matchup. The 11 seeds actually make it to the sweet sixteen more often than those teams combined.

BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?

March Madness: What are the odds? A tool for bracketologists.
bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu
 
This Ain't Chopped Liver

This Ain't Chopped Liver

Active Member
It is good to see the numbers, Sink @KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

Yep, that 8/9 is a death trap; most probably silently groan when slotted there. I will take my chances with an 11 seed bye and its 12% lesser chance in the first round to have that flip to a 17% chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen versus only 7.5% at 8/9. The numbers flipping like that show the brick wall of the second round as an 8/9 seed.

And more credit to Dixon - his 2022 team almost pulled it off as a 9 seed versus 1 seed Arizona - losing in OT after a missed foul at the end of regulation which would have put Miles at the line for the likely win. The ref was out of position and couldn’t see the contact - the ref was suppose to move with the ball and be at the half-court line where the contact was, but instead he stood halfway down the half-court, his view then blocked by the Arizona defender.
 
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KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

Active Member
This Ain't Chopped Liver said:
It is good to see the numbers, Sink @KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

Yep, that 8/9 is a death trap; most probably silently groan when slotted there. I will take my chances with an 11 seed bye and its 12% lesser chance in the first round to have that flip to a 17% chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen versus only 7.5% at 8/9. The numbers flipping like that show the brick wall of the second round as an 8/9 seed.

And more credit to Dixon - his 2022 team almost pulled it off as a 9 seed versus 1 seed Arizona - losing in OT after a missed foul at the end of regulation which would have put Miles at the line for the likely win. The ref was out of position and couldn’t see the contact - the ref was suppose to move with the ball and be at the half-court line where the contact was, but instead he stood halfway down the half-court, his view then blocked by the Arizona defender.
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Because of the risk of either the bubble being burst completely or having to play (and lose) in the first four, I'd rather be forecast "safe" in the 8/9/10 range, but the 11 seed with a bye is a "Sweet" spot in the lower seedings.
 
This Ain't Chopped Liver

This Ain't Chopped Liver

Active Member
KillerFrog InD KitchenSink said:
Because of the risk of either the bubble being burst completely or having to play (and lose) in the first four, I'd rather be forecast "safe" in the 8/9/10 range, but the 11 seed with a bye is a "Sweet" spot in the lower seedings.
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Lunardi in his update this morning has the Frogs seeded 10, so no seed bump up with that Tech win. I will hope the Frogs stick at that 10 seed because I think they can beat those 2 seeds, that is as they are today (Illinois, Michigan State, Florida, Houston). Or, have the Frogs defeat Cinci and win two games in the conference tourney to maybe jump up to a 7 seed.
 
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C

CardFrog

Active Member
I think the Frogs can give any 1st round team problems. Height will eventually be our issue but TCU's D has been really solid and creating turnovers. Once you are in the dance anything can happen. Well almost anything.
 
R

Rose Bowl

Active Member
Let’s whip Cincy down and then go from there. I think I might want to be a 10 seed more than a 8-9. I’m not sure a higher seed is all that important to this team. The better the team the better we play so any matchup we have will be someone good.
 
HToady

HToady

Full Member
Not having watched the Frogs much the early part of the season, I watched them against Tech and saw they were only one win record wise behind lots of ranked teams and thought man, were pretty good and flying beneath the radar. I think maybe, the best team CJD has had at TCU. Maybe.
 

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