QUOTE(FrogsFanatic @ May 4 2010, 07:48 PM) [snapback]555507[/snapback]
I believe 2 big time programs with 1-loss would get in over TCU, except for a BE team, TCU will get in above them
I generally agree, but it depends on two things: 1) Conferences with championship games are more likely to have their 1-loss champ go to the NC game and 2) it depends on the quality of the loss. The conference championship game gives a team that might have had a slip-up during the regular season to redeem themselves against what is generally also a higher rated program, somehow justifying in the minds of the voters.
In the quality of loss department, lets take Oregon as an example. So far preseason, they've been the unanimous decision to with the PAC-10. If they go through their schedule blowing out everyone, and then lose to USC, they'd more than likely go before TCU on principle that they're in a BCS conference and lost to a traditionally good program. However, if they just skim by a couple of their games with a win, and then lose to WSU, it'd be hard to justify them since their performance on the field wouldn't match the #1 or #2 ranking. This is what happened to Iowa last year. They barely pulled out wins on teams they should have been tearing apart if their ranking were correct, lost to Northwestern, and completely dropped out of contention for a NC game, even if they had beat OSU the next week.
I think last year was an anomaly, you don't see many seasons with 5 undefeated teams at the end of it all. This year gives us the best opportunity we've had in a long while to make a run for it, but all we can do is win the games given to us and hope for some shenanigans to happen to all the teams in front of us, the first being Boise losing to VT.