• The KillerFrogs

Bowl projection

S

SW toad

Active Member
Cougar/Frog said:
Neither should be in. SOR 13 and 14. Both played soft ACC schedules.
Meanwhile BYU SOR 7 Bama SOR 9 OU SOR Texas Tech SOR 10 Vandy SOR 11 Texas SOR 12

Both ND and Miami should be below all those.
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Finally!!! I've been waiting for this for days. THe main reason talking heads keep talking ND OR Miami is because fan eyeballs. I think most CFP committee members probably have not seen ND/Miami play more than 2 full games. BYU probably less.
It is OK to go forward and think it will be fine to not have ND with its pedestrian defensive front and Miami with its questionable coaching and Offensive line in the CFP.
BYU is better in the trenches along with much better LB play.
 
Cougar/Frog

Cougar/Frog

Active Member
Wexahu said:
I'm hyper focusing on it because the main source you are using to support your opinion is the SOR.

Portland St., East Carolina and Stanford is materially tougher than Arkansas PB, Kent State, and Oregon State? Those are 6 layups, it's irrelevant. Tougher conference schedule? I guess maybe, but barely, maybe by one opponent? And they actually played each other, and it wasn't close. And easily the next best team they played, those outcomes weren't close either.
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ECU 8 win team in the AAC, only one home loss (to BYU). Stanford beat mighty FSU, who defeated Bama.
SOR is objective something you can never be.
 
M

Mean Purple

Active Member
SW toad said:
Finally!!! I've been waiting for this for days. THe main reason talking heads keep talking ND OR Miami is because fan eyeballs. I think most CFP committee members probably have not seen ND/Miami play more than 2 full games. BYU probably less.
It is OK to go forward and think it will be fine to not have ND with its pedestrian defensive front and Miami with its questionable coaching and Offensive line in the CFP.
BYU is better in the trenches along with much better LB play.
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I think BYU should be in even with a close loss this week. But that is conf homerism.
 
LisaLT

LisaLT

Active Member
NovaScotiaFrog said:
Oregon and Ohio State both had better records than TCU and Baylor though.
So we are back to records NOT mattering?
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Actually, they did not have better regular season records than TCU or Baylor. Their losses were to teams that were unranked as well. Ohio State lost 35-21 to VT. That's a pretty good beating IMO. It's clear that there is definitely a bias to "big brands". They both, however, had a conference championship game, which gave them an extra win. You can't erase the losses with the extra win, nor should TCU or Baylor have been penalized for the Big12 not having a 13th game to play. Apparently, it doesn't or hasn't affected Notre Dame.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
Cougar/Frog said:
Sure, that is it, Mr. Ohio St lover. I control ESPN SOR and KFord SOR, and dictate how they grade teams.
Oh, I don't. Objective standards show ND and Miami don't belong. Miami should be ahead of ND, but neither belong before many other schools.
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You didn't answer my question. Does the Cougar in your name refer to BYU?

BYU is #11 in the Massey, which is a composite of all the computer rankings. Why not refer to that? Why is that not objective?
 
M

Mean Purple

Active Member
LisaLT said:
Actually, they did not have better regular season records than TCU or Baylor. Their losses were to teams that were unranked as well. Ohio State lost 35-21 to VT. That's a pretty good beating IMO. It's clear that there is definitely a bias to "big brands". They both, however, had a conference championship game, which gave them an extra win. You can't erase the losses with the extra win, nor should TCU or Baylor have been penalized for the Big12 not having a 13th game to play. Apparently, it doesn't or hasn't affected Notre Dame.
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Didn’t affect OU in 2015 either.
The whole brand thing is why they went to this CFP model.

Did anybody think a group of people and ESPN money were going to be void if the whole ratings influence?

It’s not a playoff. It’s an invitational.
 
M

Mean Purple

Active Member
Wexahu said:
You didn't answer my question. Does the Cougar in your name refer to BYU?

BYU is #11 in the Massey, which is a composite of all the computer rankings. Why not refer to that? Why is that not objective?
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Depends how that composite is built.
If those models were so dang reliable, we wouldn’t be in this mess.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
LisaLT said:
Actually, they did not have better regular season records than TCU or Baylor. Their losses were to teams that were unranked as well. Ohio State lost 35-21 to VT. That's a pretty good beating IMO. It's clear that there is definitely a bias to "big brands". They both, however, had a conference championship game, which gave them an extra win. You can't erase the losses with the extra win, nor should TCU or Baylor have been penalized for the Big12 not having a 13th game to play. Apparently, it doesn't or hasn't affected Notre Dame.
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Hard to say. In 2011 ND went 11-1 and didn't make it. Ohio State did the same in 2015.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
Mean Purple said:
Depends how that composite is built.
If those models were so dang reliable, we wouldn’t be in this mess.
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They are as reliable as anything anyone can come up with. I know that ESPN SOR isn't reliable just because of what it spit out regarding Tech and BYU. That alone should disqualify it.
 
Prince of Purpoole II

Prince of Purpoole II

Reigning Smartarse
This thread right now
Tired Britney Spears GIF
 
Cougar/Frog

Cougar/Frog

Active Member
Wexahu said:
You didn't answer my question. Does the Cougar in your name refer to BYU?

BYU is #11 in the Massey, which is a composite of all the computer rankings. Why not refer to that? Why is that not objective?
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Always has been. Again, what does that matter.
Massey includes "power ranking" systems, all of which include an aspect of recruit ranking systems. And we know how flawed those are given that Clemson, FSU, Auburn, LSU, Penn St, etc all had high power rankings to start the season, and many still do.
Sagarin Predictor is the worst of these, which is why it is so wrong all the time. ND is #2 (highest ranking on Massey composite), Miami is #5 (also its highest ranking), Penn St is #10 (also itshighest), Auburn is #22, also its highest, Florida is #31, highest.
And Sagarin Predictor has BYU at #25, its lowest out of the 50 or so different systems.
Outlier "power" rankings ignore game outcomes and focus on player rankings. Games matter more than what some kid did playing 7x7 in 8th grade and any system that puts bad teams like Penn St at #10 have zero credibility.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
Cougar/Frog said:
Always has been. Again, what does that matter.
Massey includes "power ranking" systems, all of which include an aspect of recruit ranking systems. And we know how flawed those are given that Clemson, FSU, Auburn, LSU, Penn St, etc all had high power rankings to start the season, and many still do.
Sagarin Predictor is the worst of these, which is why it is so wrong all the time. ND is #2 (highest ranking on Massey composite), Miami is #5 (also its highest ranking), Penn St is #10 (also itshighest), Auburn is #22, also its highest, Florida is #31, highest.
And Sagarin Predictor has BYU at #25, its lowest out of the 50 or so different systems.
Outlier "power" rankings ignore game outcomes and focus on player rankings. Games matter more than what some kid did playing 7x7 in 8th grade and any system that puts bad teams like Penn St at #10 have zero credibility.
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But a system that puts BYU #6 and Tech #10 does? I think the posts you are making here and the fact that you are a BYU fan is pretty relevant.

Penn State is #22 in the Massey. Definitely seems high, but probably a boost because they played 3 teams currently in the Top 5, and two of those came down to the last play. But I agree, that's an odd ranking. LSU is #23. Auburn is #35, Clemson is #38 and FSU is #59. Not sure I have a huge issue with any of those.

Yes, games matter, of course. That's why you guys are in the position you are in. But schedules matter too. Had you had Auburn's schedule for instance, I highly doubt you'd be in the position you are today.
 

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