• The KillerFrogs

Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?

82 Frog Fever

Active Member
wild arse thought starting with the idea that the pac goes to a complete streaming deal with apple

how does anyone think that might impact a big 12, big 10, sec, or acc team from playing a pac school in a nonconference game if you know that instead of being on espn, abc, nbc,cbs etc.....you are on apple tv?

you play those games partly for the exposure or am i thinking too much on this....
Wow, interesting thought.
Is the media coverage determined by whose home field it is? If so, teams will think twice before inking a home and away series with the PAC.
 

82 Frog Fever

Active Member
A little flavor...

- I said a few weeks back I thought the PAC was moving to try and close a deal... That was based on some rumblings from industry lawyers I know. That clearly didn't happen or work out. My guess is the PAC tried to close with ESPN, but they didn't get it done.

- Everybody in the industry believes PAC is working on an Apple deal, likely exclusive. They MAY get some licensed content on ESPN or elsewhere, but that'll be it. They are going to leverage all the fixed-cost investment in the PAC Network to make this work. Don't be surprised to see a big number announced eventually if this happens, but you'll have to keep in mind the PAC will need to fund all production costs.

- If this is the answer, expansion seems unlikely, other than maybe a Gonzaga side deal.
I dont think I understand your last sentence.
I do believe the exclusive Apple deal is in play, as I hear they haven’t had negotiations with ESPN in over a month.
Even if they got $35m from Apple, they‘d still have $7m (2021 cost) of PACN production costs (probably more of it’s 100% streaming) net $28m.
That’s probably the minimum needed to hold teams in place, and even if they get it, there are several teams that have objected to signing off on any high percentage streaming deal.
 

Hemingway

Active Member
A little flavor...

- I said a few weeks back I thought the PAC was moving to try and close a deal... That was based on some rumblings from industry lawyers I know. That clearly didn't happen or work out. My guess is the PAC tried to close with ESPN, but they didn't get it done.

- Everybody in the industry believes PAC is working on an Apple deal, likely exclusive. They MAY get some licensed content on ESPN or elsewhere, but that'll be it. They are going to leverage all the fixed-cost investment in the PAC Network to make this work. Don't be surprised to see a big number announced eventually if this happens, but you'll have to keep in mind the PAC will need to fund all production costs.

- If this is the answer, expansion seems unlikely, other than maybe a Gonzaga side deal.
So when Arizona says nothing more than 50% streaming, that’s not a problem?
 

BrewingFrog

Was I supposed to type something here?
I cannot imagine a Conference going all-Streaming. As noted before, the money would have to be crazy good to essentially take yourself out of the regular viewership arena, and go running off to a place that most Sports Fans know nothing of, for which they must pay to view.

To me, this is PAC Football signing off. No one will watch them. It will be like they left the planet and moved off into space...
 
I dont think I understand your last sentence.
I do believe the exclusive Apple deal is in play, as I hear they haven’t had negotiations with ESPN in over a month.
Even if they got $35m from Apple, they‘d still have $7m (2021 cost) of PACN production costs (probably more of it’s 100% streaming) net $28m.
That’s probably the minimum needed to hold teams in place, and even if they get it, there are several teams that have objected to signing off on any high percentage streaming deal.
I don’t believe Apple would incentivize adding more schools, the core 10 works for them.
 
So when Arizona says nothing more than 50% streaming, that’s not a problem?
Lots of things get said and then retracted. I bet, if they announce a deal that sounds like 5 year $2bn, Arizona will be staying put. In addition, it won’t be exclusively streaming, I bet some games will land on ESPN too similar to the MLS model with FOX.
 

Eight

Member
another random thought about streaming games on a platform that isn't on a distribution source such as youtube tv, direct tv, cable, etc...

maybe i am the only one that does this, but i don't always stay with a game. i will bounce over to another game if the frogs are on fox and it is the same 6 commercials every 3 minutes or at half time

you can't do that as simply on apple or prime or netflix and so i find myself set on watching one show, movie, series etc..... but that isn't how i normally consume college football and when i watch the nfl

realize that a streaming service just to meet the preferences of 8 isn't happening, but in talking with my son he has similar feelings and he is even more adhd than i am with the remote
 
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Hemingway

Active Member
Lots of things get said and then retracted. I bet, if they announce a deal that sounds like 5 year $2bn, Arizona will be staying put. In addition, it won’t be exclusively streaming, I bet some games will land on ESPN too similar to the MLS model with FOX.
40 million a year? Well I hadn’t thought about the stupid money thing. I figured espn would have an accurate valuation on the Pac, but if $ is no object to apple then so be it.
 

TCUdirtbag

Active Member
40 million a year? Well I hadn’t thought about the stupid money thing. I figured espn would have an accurate valuation on the Pac, but if $ is no object to apple then so be it.
Apple sits on giant mountain ranges of cash.

But even $40/school/yr is pre-production costs and when you net that out just roughly matches the Big 12.

All streaming is a huge risk. Even with sub-licensing of a few big games. Will all the 4 corners take it…if it exists?
 

Wexahu

Full Member
Apple sits on giant mountain ranges of cash.

But even $40/school/yr is pre-production costs and when you net that out just roughly matches the Big 12.

All streaming is a huge risk. Even with sub-licensing of a few big games. Will all the 4 corners take it…if it exists?
So production costs for the entire season would be about $100M. So roughly just under $2M per game figuring about 50-60 total games. Is that right?

Just curious more than anything. That seems high to me.
 

BrewingFrog

Was I supposed to type something here?
Keep in mind that the PAC Network, an entity formed by the PAC themselves to broadcast their 3rd tier content, was an absolute failure and left a great deal of bitterness in it's wake. It was pitched as moving into new territory, and keeping their rights to themselves. It wound up being available only to people who subscribed directly to it, and gathered a pitiful number of viewers.

No doubt there are enough long-memories amongst the PAC brain trust to beat that idea to death with whatever isn't nailed down.
 

82 Frog Fever

Active Member
So production costs for the entire season would be about $100M. So roughly just under $2M per game figuring about 50-60 total games. Is that right?

Just curious more than anything. That seems high to me.
$40m - $8.3m = $31.7m to match B12.

In 2021 the PACN production costs were $75m and that was nowhere near 100% of the games. They did just save $5m moving out of their SF offices.
Given those ‘21 figures, $83m (or even $100m) for 100% of the games doesn’t sound that high for next year.

It‘s the $40m/team that sounds high.
Why would Apple pay $40m when nobody else is willing to pay $30m??
They’re not going to pay a 1/3 premium for non-linear coverage when there really isn’t another competitor.
In addition Apple is going thru extensive cost cutting programs to avoid thousands of layoffs right now.
 

hometown frog

Active Member
It‘s the $40m/team that sounds high.
Why would Apple pay $40m when nobody else is willing to pay $30m??
They’re not going to pay a 1/3 premium for non-linear coverage when there really isn’t another competitor.
In addition Apple is going thru extensive cost cutting programs to avoid thousands of layoffs right now.
bingo. that $40M per team is a figment of the PACs imagination that they hope they can get Apple to. Everything I’ve seen out there says it’s 33M-36M gross across all outlets at most and more likely closer to $28M-$30M per team gross. THEN you get into production costs, possible uneven revenue distributions and previous penalty payments for Comcast and previous overpayments and then this gets back into the $22M per team range and teams are bouncing.

i also don’t get this talk that adding any team increases the offer by $20M. Not sure that value proposition is there for the PAC to lean into partial share offers to help offset the low per team amount.
 
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Frozen Frog

Active Member
Let’s say it’s 100% streaming now. I don’t know if that is all bad. If Apple keeps buying content they may be able to start a channel or something similar to YouTube. I hate Apple TV. There really isn’t much content worth watching. I have a few subscriptions that include Apple TV so I could see something working.

Could Apple buy Bally and make it profitable? There have been some thoughts that teams could manage their own subscribers and sell unique packages. Basically a season ticket package to watch games on tv.

I think the Big Ten and the SEC are playing a game of chicken. Everyone is focused on Oregon and another West Coast school, but is there someone else in the mix?
 

Creeperfrog

Active Member
I'll say this. During football season I watch through youtubetv, just bc i like their streaming service better than others. During baseball time I cancel YT and go to fubo which carries the astros.

That said, I bet a lot of pacific teams who subscribe to Apple just for football will leave after the 4 month football season is over to a better platform
 

TCUdirtbag

Active Member
So production costs for the entire season would be about $100M. So roughly just under $2M per game figuring about 50-60 total games. Is that right?

Just curious more than anything. That seems high to me.
That would be very high. The media deal is not for football only, it’s for all sports. Men’s basketball, women’s basketball, baseball, softball, Olympic, sports, coaches shows, and so on. Talking over 1000 productions per year. And when we look at productions with costs that are picked up by network partners in the other P5 leagues, it’s nearly all football, MBB, and WBB, and championships, and some BSB and SB.
 
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TCUdirtbag

Active Member
$40m - $8.3m = $31.7m to match B12.

In 2021 the PACN production costs were $75m and that was nowhere near 100% of the games. They did just save $5m moving out of their SF offices.
Given those ‘21 figures, $83m (or even $100m) for 100% of the games doesn’t sound that high for next year.

It‘s the $40m/team that sounds high.
Why would Apple pay $40m when nobody else is willing to pay $30m??
They’re not going to pay a 1/3 premium for non-linear coverage when there really isn’t another competitor.
In addition Apple is going thru extensive cost cutting programs to avoid thousands of layoffs right now.
Eh, apples and oranges comparison. ESPN/ABC/FOX paying Big 12 an average of $31.7 M/yr is cash in the bank per school. The hypothetical Apple deal for $40 M/yr/school is pre-conference distribution (PAC bylaws give league a full share, so divide by 11, not 10), and doesn’t account for production and promotion costs. Big 12 media partners cover production costs for all the big events, they promote events and the Big 12 across their platforms, etc. The Big 12’s media partners spend a lot more than the per-school payout. So the rumored $40M may be about on par or even low once you net all that out.
 

82 Frog Fever

Active Member
Eh, apples and oranges comparison. ESPN/ABC/FOX paying Big 12 an average of $31.7 M/yr is cash in the bank per school. The hypothetical Apple deal for $40 M/yr/school is pre-conference distribution (PAC bylaws give league a full share, so divide by 11, not 10), and doesn’t account for production and promotion costs. Big 12 media partners cover production costs for all the big events, they promote events and the Big 12 across their platforms, etc. The Big 12’s media partners spend a lot more than the per-school payout. So the rumored $40M may be about on par or even low once you net all that out.
Excellent, I believe we’ve nailed the contract value.
It’s definitely between $20 & $40m, give or take $10m.
 
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