Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?

[jack the frog]

Pac 12 homers on the Twittersphere are claiming that the conference has all the time in the world (through 24) to negotiate and this is all a false imperative created by Big 12 homers. True or false? Thoughts?

As I see it, additional delays could affect recruiting, increase the risk of a PAC school opting for divorce over time and a crummier deal by way of a further decline in the economy.

 

[Palliative Care]

Jack your statement about time is true...for the conference. You are also correct in that time maybe running out for the individual schools.

 

[Limey Frog]

Pac 12 homers on the Twittersphere are claiming that the conference has all the time in the world (through 24) to negotiate and this is all a false imperative created by Big 12 homers. True or false? Thoughts?

As I see it, additional delays could affect recruiting, increase the risk of a PAC school opting for divorce over time and a crummier deal by way of a further decline in the economy.

This is false. Note how much the Pac talking points have shifted throughout this saga. First they were going to turn down chump change from ESPN and kill it on the open market. Then the Big 12 jumped the line and they laughed that we settled for penuts. Then things took a while and suddenly the Big 12 had undercut the market price but still the Pac was going to do at least that well money-wise. Then it was going to get done by Christmas, then January, then by the tournament, now by mid-April...

The Big 12 narrative has never changed, and no Big 12 claim has yet been proved wrong. What does that tell you? Again, the Pac might still pull this off in some way, but it hasn't gone well, it's not going well, and numerous schools are actively talking to the Big 12 right now in case it keeps going this badly for much longer.

 

[Limey Frog]

Confirming Dodd's report yesterday:

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Don’t believe everything you read on the internet. This thing has been dragging for months — they have been given numbers.

Common sense would say yes, but then I read things like this, and idk.

 

[Hemingway]

Confirming Dodd's report yesterday:

I absolutely believe the accusations that the Pac he hired media influencers to pester people on twitter and to put out fake stories. This is so lame

 

[Limey Frog]

Common sense would say yes, but then I read things like this, and idk.
View attachment 14005

Wilner's main sources seem to be the Pac head office, Bay Area schools and the 'desperate two' (Oregon State & Wazzu). He has others, certainly, but it seems a safe bet that his updates on the negotiation process reflect what Kliavkoff wants to put out there. That doesn't mean he's wrong, necessarily, but it does mean that the same information might be interpreted different ways. I can think of reasons why Kliavkoff wouldn't want to confirm that he's put numbers in front of people when he actually has. I can't think as easily why those presidents or ADs would leak that they have seen numbers when they haven't.

 

[East Coast]

Common sense would say yes, but then I read things like this, and idk.
View attachment 14005

The media contract is the lifeblood for the athletic departments. There is no way that at this point in time, after 9 months or so of negotiations, all the schools are not informed where they sit. If Kliavkoff and his negotiators had tried to hide it, it would have been demanded; and if they were still not forthcoming, they would be gone.

 

[Big Frog II]

The schools know the numbers. They are not satisfied. If things don't miraculously improve by 4/14, get ready for an implosion.

 

[Limey Frog]

From my POV, I believe the current contract offer is $25m.
The numbers are so bad, they actually cancelled the big President’s conference unifying meeting on Tuesday with no explanation. They finally ended up having a short 1 hour meeting yesterday with nothing scheduled again until mid April.

$25m is an immediate conference killer.
If the presidents were told $25m yesterday, after all this time, you would not be hearing crickets today. Especially after Pres. Robbins‘ went out on a limb in support of Kliavkoff with his comments on Monday.

The only explanations I have for the silence are (1) the Presidents haven’t been told the figure, or (2) Kliavkoff is lying about the figure and any potential improvements to buy time.

Or maybe the number is $30-35M but the details suck, like only Apple is willing to pay that for exclusive rights to all content. That might also be a conference killer, but from Kliavkoff's perspective he did deliver on his promise to match the Big 12's dollar amount. Hence the Pac office's claim to have made positive progress but no announcement of an agreement in principle and radio silence from the schools.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Or maybe the number is $30-35M but the details suck, like only Apple is willing to pay that for exclusive rights to all content. That might also be a conference killer, but from Kliavkoff's perspective he did deliver on his promise to match the Big 12's dollar amount. Hence the Pac office's claim to have made positive progress but no announcement of an agreement in principle and radio silence from the schools.

Streaming @ $30 to $35 less $7 for PACN production is worse than $25 with tier 1&2 linear.

If they had anything positive, they’d be on Twitter right now in an effort to calm the hugely negative publicity that’s damaging the conference. You are hearing silence, cause they got nothin’.

 

[Wexahu]

Streaming @ $30 to $35 less $7 for PACN production is worse than $25 with tier 1&2 linear.

If they had anything positive, they’d be on Twitter right now in an effort to calm the hugely negative publicity that’s damaging the conference. You are hearing silence, cause they got nothin’.

I'm not seeing much of this outside of the usual twitter pundits. If anything, I hear crickets on anything that isn't the SEC or Big 10.

Regardless, one could easily make the argument that a strong ACC that sticks together and a strong Pac 12 that sticks together is in the Big 12's best long-term interests.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

I'm not seeing much of this outside of the usual twitter pundits. If anything, I hear crickets on anything that isn't the SEC or Big 10.

Regardless, one could easily make the argument that a strong ACC that sticks together and a strong Pac 12 that sticks together is in the Big 12's best long-term interests.

I see the P12 in a Kobayashi Maru.
The members have vastly differing views on direction and they will never be able to balance Money vs. Linear TV vs. Streaming

- You can’t get to B12 money without Apple streaming and you can’t get Apple without their control of nearly all Tier 1 & 2 games
- If Apple has control of Tier 1 & 2 games, ESPN is out. They may be out already.
- Az says 50%+ linear is a requirement.
- Wash / Or. don’t want their games streamed at all, and they’re most of the Tier 1 games.
- Wash & Or wants much more than equal shares. Approx. $40m

I doubt the P12 will ever get all 10 of their teams to sign a GOR.

The ACC is next up in the crosshairs

 

[Wexahu]

I see the P12 in a Kobayashi Maru.
The members have vastly differing views on direction and they will never be able to balance Money vs. Linear TV vs. Streaming

- You can’t get to B12 money without Apple streaming and you can’t get Apple without their control of nearly all Tier 1 & 2 games
- If Apple has control of Tier 1 & 2 games, ESPN is out. They may be out already.
- Az says 50%+ linear is a requirement.
- Wash / Or. don’t want their games streamed at all, and they’re most of the Tier 1 games.
- Wash & Or wants much more than equal shares. Approx. $40m

I doubt the P12 will ever get all 10 of their teams to sign a GOR.

The ACC is next up in the crosshairs

The Big 12 is going to make about 20-30M/yr/program less than the SEC and Big 10. I don't think it's the end of the world for the PAC if they make $5M/yr less than Big 12 teams.

 

[Big Frog II]

The Big 12 is going to make about 20-30M/yr/program less than the SEC and Big 10. I don't think it's the end of the world for the PAC if they make $5M/yr less than Big 12 teams.

Maybe not. However, if all my TV deal was Apple streaming. I would leave.

 

[East Coast]

I see the P12 in a Kobayashi Maru.
The members have vastly differing views on direction and they will never be able to balance Money vs. Linear TV vs. Streaming

- You can’t get to B12 money without Apple streaming and you can’t get Apple without their control of nearly all Tier 1 & 2 games
- If Apple has control of Tier 1 & 2 games, ESPN is out. They may be out already.
- Az says 50%+ linear is a requirement.
- Wash / Or. don’t want their games streamed at all, and they’re most of the Tier 1 games.
- Wash & Or wants much more than equal shares. Approx. $40m

I doubt the P12 will ever get all 10 of their teams to sign a GOR.

The ACC is next up in the crosshairs

If the PAC can't work out the internal issues, there will be no TV contract. Best case in that scenario is renegotiating year to year (basically a 1 year GOR).

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Maybe not. However, if all my TV deal was Apple streaming. I would leave.

There are 2 Pac12 podcasts reporting that the ESPN offer is $90m per season for 5 seasons for 2 games per week. 1 on TV and 1 on ESPN+.
If that’s true, approx. 2/3 of any media proposal would have to be streaming.

 

[East Coast]

There are 2 Pac12 podcasts reporting that the ESPN offer is $90m per season for 5 seasons for 2 games per week. 1 on TV and 1 on ESPN+.
If that’s true, approx. 2/3 of any media proposal would have to be streaming.

If that number is true, and the rest of the package is worth the same, that is less than $25 million per team with 80% streaming (ESPN+ is effectively streaming) and at least 2 additional subscriptions needed to get all the games. That would be a disaster; even Oregon and Washington might sign onto a Big12 GOR rather than go for that.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

If that number is true, and the rest of the package is worth the same, that is less than $25 million per team with 80% streaming (ESPN+ is effectively streaming) and at least 2 additional subscriptions needed to get all the games. That would be a disaster; even Oregon and Washington might sign onto a Big12 GOR rather than go for that.

I believe there is 75 PAC10 fb games, so 26 to ESPN & 49 streaming
I could see where they might get $210m per season for streaming to get to $300m, but then those pesky production costs must be figured in.

So even if production was only $5m per school per year (30% cheaper than 2021), they’d still be back at $250m net. …and they’d be stuck with 2/3 streaming content.

That’s probably why we didn’t hear anything from the Pac Pres. meeting

 

[Eight]

I see the P12 in a Kobayashi Maru.
The members have vastly differing views on direction and they will never be able to balance Money vs. Linear TV vs. Streaming

- You can’t get to B12 money without Apple streaming and you can’t get Apple without their control of nearly all Tier 1 & 2 games
- If Apple has control of Tier 1 & 2 games, ESPN is out. They may be out already.
- Az says 50%+ linear is a requirement.
- Wash / Or. don’t want their games streamed at all, and they’re most of the Tier 1 games.
- Wash & Or wants much more than equal shares. Approx. $40m

I doubt the P12 will ever get all 10 of their teams to sign a GOR.

The ACC is next up in the crosshairs

wasn't kobayashi maru kaiser soze's attorney in the usual suspects?