Big 12 Expansion

[Limey Frog]

If Oregon and Washington don't leave right away, the PAC may stabilize by adding 2 schools. Now let's say a year passes and next summer the PAC finally gets their new deal nearly finalized but a new player, lets say CBS, says we want to compete with FOX and ESPN so we will pay a large amount if you get in the Central Time Zone. Boom, now the PAC has leverage over the Big 12 members and grabs Tech, UH, Ok St and Kansas.

The point being power can shift back to the PAC like it was last summer. We do not know what will happen in the next 12 months.

If the Big 12 can get the 4 corners schools to commit now while there is massive uncertainty (lawyers may find a way to break the ACC GoR giving the Big 12 eastern options, or a media partner may say that those 4 will not add enough value anymore with the B1Gs western presence, or some other unknown) and by getting them to commit now, we remove the possibility of the power shifting back to the west and build what can be a solid #3 conference. Sell them on the urgency of the unknown future.

This is exactly right. Other people's sense of panic is our biggest asset right now. Last year it was the Big 12 panicking, but we survived. We can't leave any scenario in play that might result in our league being destroyed.

As far as mouths to feed and TV deals go, if the Big 12 could go to 16 the next step seems obvious: negotiate for the immediate release of OU and Texas in exchange for an annual scheduling arrangement with the SEC of 16 non-conference games. That would be ambitious, but if you can get something close to that you've got some pretty valuable football games to sell.

 

[East Coast]

I'm pretty sure the Big12 membership is meeting today, but whether the 4 corner schools are actually invited is pure conjecture.

 

[Purp]

I'll go along.

I believe it is more likely this is academic since the PAC10 will go forward with the remaining 10 for 2024-25 so the B12 won't have the option to get 2-4 PAC teams at this point.

If I'm wrong and the PAC10 doesn't hang together in the short term, it will be because the insiders know that there's another shoe dropping before 6/30/23 and 2-4 additional schools will be "in the B1G money." In this scenario, the leftover pool of B12 candidates will be everyone but OreSt and WashSt.

Maybe the B12's goal should be to bring in two of the MountainTZ four. I say: Colorado & Arizona.
Why bring in more mouths to feed by taking all four? (AzSt and Utah - we'd have those that states covered with AzU and BYU.)

1) it lessens the PAC 10 down to 8 and further weakens them so the newPAC is marginally viable.
2) a side benefit would be so they later won't have the strength to "take" any B12 teams.
3) this economy of choices maximizes the B12 future options in other areas of the country down the line (with the goal of being Conference #3 after the SEC/B1G.)

I think taking the 4 corners schools now applies pressure to the B1G, U Dub and Oregon, as well as ND. By taking the 4 now you firmly seal the fate of the PAC. Then U Dub and Oregon have their hands forced. It appears as though ND wants to slow play its decision and the B1G doesn't want to take anybody else until ND makes its move. If U Dub and Oregon get tired of waiting then we land them in the B12 also and all the uncertainty ends quickly.

ND is in a position that they can posture since the B1G will never say no to them. But if they're worried about losing important properties to the B12 the B1G may accelerate moves against the ACC. In that scenario it forces the hands of ND a little more with their scheduling alliance to a dead conference and we finish this round of realignment in short order. The B12 takes what's left that it wants and maybe the SEC takes a couple too.

I see a lot more potential downside to waiting on the 4 corners than I do to taking them quickly.

 

[TCUdirtbag]

I agree with Purp’s sentiment, and that shared by many here. Good to get our ducks in a row.

Practically, though, I think everyone is waiting on the B1G to move. I don’t think the four corners schools move to the Big 12 until UO and UW go B1G. Still a possibility they don’t and other forces shift the Big 12/Pac 12 balance of power back west.

Who knows. Going to be a wild week.

 

[Limey Frog]

I agree with Purp’s sentiment, and that shared by many here. Good to get our ducks in a row.

Practically, though, I think everyone is waiting on the B1G to move. I don’t think the four corners schools move to the Big 12 until UO and UW go B1G. Still a possibility they don’t and other forces shift the Big 12/Pac 12 balance of power back west.

Who knows. Going to be a wild week.

I think if these schools agree to the Big XII it's because they know off the record that Oregon isn't going to stick with the Pac one way or another. Oregon may not know exactly what their plan is yet, but I'm sure they've already made up their mind not to be left out. They'll approach the SEC and leverage those talks into moving on the Big Ten. My best guess is that the Big Ten takes Oregon and Stanford fairly soon, because Oregon is very desirable and Stanford increases pressure on ND more than UW (plus allows the hypocrites to keep lying about how important academics are in all this). I don't think there's any scenario in which Oregon even pretends to be considering the Big XII; the Big Ten isn't going to moved by that because they know they can get any school out of the Big XII whenever they want with one phone call. Right now, our best asset is that those calls aren't ever coming and we all know it.

[When all this is over its going to be interesting, tragic, and depressing to see who gets left out. TCU is still in very real danger of that being us; 1994 all over again, this time forever. Right now I suspect Cal and UW will be the most historically significant programs to fall down a level. That's disgraceful if it does happen. Darn the rascals in L.A., Indianapolis, and Columbus who made that happen.]

 

[Eight]

aren't these conference moves dependent on the networks giving some indication if they are good with the move or not?

fox was the driver behind the big 10 move of usc and ucla and they would be all in on adding notre dame, but would the big 12 get a positive response if they extended welcomes to the 2 az schools, utah, and colorado?

 

[Wexahu]

I think if these schools agree to the Big XII it's because they know off the record that Oregon isn't going to stick with the Pac one way or another. Oregon may not know exactly what their plan is yet, but I'm sure they've already made up their mind not to be left out. They'll approach the SEC and leverage those talks into moving on the Big Ten. My best guess is that the Big Ten takes Oregon and Stanford fairly soon, because Oregon is very desirable and Stanford increases pressure on ND more than UW (plus allows the hypocrites to keep lying about how important academics are in all this). I don't think there's any scenario in which Oregon even pretends to be considering the Big XII; the Big Ten isn't going to moved by that because they know they can get any school out of the Big XII whenever they want with one phone call. Right now, our best asset is that those calls aren't ever coming and we all know it.

[When all this is over its going to be interesting, tragic, and depressing to see who gets left out. TCU is still in very real danger of that being us; 1994 all over again, this time forever. Right now I suspect Cal and UW will be the most historically significant programs to fall down a level. That's disgraceful if it does happen. Darn the rascals in L.A., Indianapolis, and Columbus who made that happen.]

Columbus? I assume you meant Bristol.

 

[Gary's Shirtless Revenge]

I agree with Purp’s sentiment, and that shared by many here. Good to get our ducks in a row.

Practically, though, I think everyone is waiting on the B1G to move. I don’t think the four corners schools move to the Big 12 until UO and UW go B1G. Still a possibility they don’t and other forces shift the Big 12/Pac 12 balance of power back west.

Who knows. Going to be a wild week.

Put it this way... If the BIG pauses now or after ND,and UO and UW are still in the PAC, and you presume the PAC is "dead," the Big 12 would 1000% be interested and would absolutely push to get both in the new Big 12. Those two are far ahead of any of the other four we are discussing.

 

[Tony Lema]

How big of a player will Amazon be in all of this?

 

[Limey Frog]

How big of a player will Amazon be in all of this?

I think Amazon and Apple tv are the Big XII's best bet to land a rights deal that surprises people. Also NBC/Peacock if ND becomes a Fox property in the Big Ten.

 

[geezer]

"If new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is grounded in honesty and reality, the first piece of art in his office will read: “It’s not for the fans. It’s not for the players. It’s for money.”

Guerin-teed it was quite a week: Mike Gundy nails conference realignment: 'It's not for the fans. It's not for the players. It's for money'

Why did USC and UCLA leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten? Oklahoma State's football coach could have told you in March.

tulsaworld.com

 

[Hoosierfrog]

I'm pretty sure the Big12 membership is meeting today, but whether the 4 corner schools are actually invited is pure conjecture.

4 Corners? Surely no one is considering New Mexico in any of this mess…

 

[Wexahu]

Put it this way... If the BIG pauses now or after ND,and UO and UW are still in the PAC, and you presume the PAC is "dead," the Big 12 would 1000% be interested and would absolutely push to get both in the new Big 12. Those two are far ahead of any of the other four we are discussing.

What makes UW and Oregon so attractive relative to, say, ASU and Colorado? Or really any of the other PAC schools?

Their remoteness of those schools would seem to counter many of the positives they bring. And they aren't exactly in a college sports crazy part of the country. Do they really bring in the eyeballs that much?

 

[Purp]

aren't these conference moves dependent on the networks giving some indication if they are good with the move or not?

fox was the driver behind the big 10 move of usc and ucla and they would be all in on adding notre dame, but would the big 12 get a positive response if they extended welcomes to the 2 az schools, utah, and colorado?

A thought I had earlier and left out of my last post is the network angle to all this. Part of my thought on moving for the AZ/CO/UT schools promptly is to kill the PAC. That's a Fox property that would be worthless to them, which would add significant urgency to them in negotiations. I think it would force a very quick response. Honestly, I suspect that may have been the hope all along so that SC and UCLA could move even sooner than 2024 with no fees. I'm speculating on that one, but it doesn't seem unrealistic that Fox and the PAC schools going to the B1G are interested in getting out from under their low rent deals for bigger ones as quickly as possible.

The flip side of this is what it does to ESPN. That network owns the SEC, ACC, and B12. We've heard the ACC deal is VERY favorable for ESPN so it's keenly interested in preserving that and not blowing it up just yet. Big the B12 gets infinitely more interesting by taking on the AZ/CO/UT schools quickly. Moreover, ESPN may see an opportunity to take Oregon and U Dub from Fox. If the PAC is allowed to languish long enough to get triage for its severe wounds I think the remaining PAC schools, the B12, Fox, and ESPN all lose.

 

[BrewingFrog]

How big of a player will Amazon be in all of this?

They are a complete wild card. They have the riches of Croesus, but they also have no real idea of what to do with live sports. They are dabbling with the NFL, but they do not share the same concerns with advertising, ratings, or carriage issues as the Regular Media does. Their goals are shrouded within their own calculus, and we can only guess at them.

I would hope the New Guy In The Barrel over at BIGXII HQ is working that angle. Hard. Having Amazon as a "Broadcast Partner" should terrify the Regular Media, because they are like invading aliens from the far stars to them: Using new technology and unconstrained by the normal shackles.

Of course, all that being said, I'm confident we'll make the wrong decision. C'est la vie.

 

[Zubaz]

4 Corners? Surely no one is considering New Mexico in any of this mess…

Nobody wants to travel internationally for games I guess...

 

[vicarfrog]

They are a complete wild card. They have the riches of Croesus, but they also have no real idea of what to do with live sports. They are dabbling with the NFL, but they do not share the same concerns with advertising, ratings, or carriage issues as the Regular Media does. Their goals are shrouded within their own calculus, and we can only guess at them.

I would hope the New Guy In The Barrel over at BIGXII HQ is working that angle. Hard. Having Amazon as a "Broadcast Partner" should terrify the Regular Media, because they are like invading aliens from the far stars to them: Using new technology and unconstrained by the normal shackles.

Of course, all that being said, I'm confident we'll make the wrong decision. C'est la vie.

Amazon will get there, that part is inevitable. But I will say at the moment, I don't enjoy watching sports on Amazon yet.

I feel like there is a delay.

 

[BrewingFrog]

Amazon will get there, that part is inevitable. But I will say at the moment, I don't enjoy watching sports on Amazon yet.

I feel like there is a delay.

I will admit to never having watched a game on Amazon. Yeah, I have all the ability to do so, but I just haven't had the level of interest necessary to remember that there is a game on.

Is there a difference in how it is presented? By this, I mean same basic set up, same camera angles, same kind of announcer structure? The Network game presentation is all pretty much interchangeable, and since they hired Network people to do these jobs, I make the assumption that it is largely the same. How bad are commercials?

 

[tcudoc]

IIRC, the other power 5 conferences formed an "alliance" that excluded the Big 12 conference. We see how well that worked out. So, I think the Big 12 must act quickly to seal the fate of the PAC. The PAC has shown in the recent past that it was in favor of trying to seal the fate of the BIg 12. Time to return the favor.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Nobody wants to travel internationally for games I guess...

Joey?