1. The KillerFrogs

"Beto" O'Rourke vs Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate

Discussion in 'Killingsworth Court, Formerly The General Forum' started by Nick Danger, Mar 1, 2018.

  1. Beto isn't going to win in Texas, it's a nice pipe dream, but there isn't a blue wave coming and if the economy continues to improve and Trump actually gets something done in North Korea over the next few months the Democrats' enthusiasm will be matched by the right in the midterms. Furthermore you're not going to win in this state on the platform he's running on: in favor of transgendered individuals using opposite sex bathrooms and locker rooms, increased EPA regulation, repealing DOMA, gerrymandering for me but not for thee, expanding Obamacare, supporting the DREAM act, unfettered access to abortion, and gun control.
  2. I'll consider voting for Beto if he owns his true background and runs as Francis.
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  3. Beto v. Cruel Cruz?

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  4. My reaction when Nick does his best Peter Parker expression and tells us that they are going to turn Texas blue:

  5. "If you are not a liberal at 20 you are heartless, but if you are not a conservative by 40 you are brainless"
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  6. Then why vote for Rafael Cruz?
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  7. Two polls in the last two days, but both were of registered voters, one showed a 5% lead for Cruz, the other a 10% lead. Five months to go, and given the lead among likely voters is probably close to double what these polls found (10-20%) it's going to interesting to see how much money the national Democratic Party begins to sink into this race given their failure with Davis. If the national money begins to dry up this one might be over before the end of August.
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  8. With Justice Kennedy now retiring and the Democrats gearing up to make the mid-terms about his replacement as well as "saving abortion" (which isn't accurate) I'm calling the race for Texas Senator over. Cruz will now win this by a country mile. The Democrats have no idea how energized the Republican base will be if they campaign on those two points, especially in red states they were hoping to turn blue. In fact, this just might backfire on them in a big way.

    I'm buying stock in popcorn.
  9. Democrats have no power to make it about the nominee, because they can't stop the nominee from being confirmed before the election. Short of nominating a far right ideologue that can't get someone like Murkowski or Collins' support, they only need 49 votes (with Pence being the tiebreaker). Really, there are a few Dem Senators in heavily red states that are going to feel pressure as well (looking at Manchin here, among others). The GOP has all the cards and can seat more or less whoever they want. That will almost surely be done before the election.
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  10. Perhaps I'm involved in too many venues with Democrats, because everyone from work to family and friends online appear to be losing their minds over Kennedy's retirement and calling it the end of America if it isn't stopped. I honestly haven't seen a group of people more worked up since the debate over Obamacare; but again, that might just be my experience. And when I see TV personalities like the entire lineup of MSNBC to nearly every left-leaning guest on CNN (and a few on FOX) mirroring the same emotional response, and in some cases calling on the public to ratchet up the outrage and push back, you can understand why I might not subscribe to the idea that a nearly split Senate will be a breeze for Trump's nominee. Furthermore, this issue will galvanize both bases, and I expect the Democrats will want to delay the nominee as long as possible to use this as an issue for the upcoming elections (actually, I don't have to guess at that last one, they're already saying as much). The problem is, if they do that it becomes THE issue in the campaign, and the right will have a higher turnout, but if they lose and Trump's nominee gets confirmed before the election--and they continue to make this THE issue--it will have the reverse chilling effect on the left in terms of voter turnout.

    The only winning hand I see is if the Democrats let this issue go, so as to not stir up the right's base… but, we all know that isn't going to happen.
  11. Oh yeah, I'm sure the Democrats want it to be an issue and want to stop it....but realistically they have no play here. They just don't have the numbers. Remember, there is no filibuster anymore. Democrats set the stage by going Nuclear for all-but Supreme Court judicial appointments back in 2010 or so, and then McConnell followed suit by going Nuclear with Gorsuch's appointment. It's just a simple majority now, there are 51 GOP Senators. Realistically, that's 50 with McCain out, but again there are some Democrat Senators in red states that will feel the pressure too. So they'll have to find someone that can get everyone together, but if they are able to nominate someone that can get all Republican Senators on board, the Democrats are largely powerless to do anything about it.
  12. Touche. Because I like my coffee black and my government small, or something to that effect.
  13. [​IMG]
  14. The "Abolish ICE" platform isn't going to help them either.
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  15. Many I've spoken with are afraid this is true, but a lot of my younger colleagues (20-30's) are caught up in this "movement", which is where this party seems to be trending lately.
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  16. Who names their kid "Beto"?
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  17. #37 ftwfrog, Jul 16, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2018
    The Democratic Party has had absolute garbage for candidates and that’s why I think Beto now has a chance. Small chance, but a chance. He’s young, smart, charismatic and has actually campaigned and talked to voters. He’s visited all 254 counties in Texas to get his name out there. He’s raised over $10 million (taking zero from PACs). I think if he plays the more moderate card, which again dems have had trouble doing, then he might steal some of the Cruz votes for folks who are fed up with the Trump train. And yes, there are a lot of them that realize what a god damned clown we have in the White House, and folks that are sucking the trump teet may need to distance.

    Cruz will play to the fear-mongerers, telling voters that Beto will knock on doors to take your guns, try to kill your babies and raise taxes the first week he is in office and a lot of the sheep will follow, but voters will hopefully inform themselves.

    All this coming from someone who has voted Republican, Democrat & more.
  18. #38 Nick Danger, Jul 26, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2018
    Here's Beto's first campaign video . . .

  19. Apparently, he hasn't signed on to the "Abolish ICE" platform as you suggest.
    ICE: Fix it don't nix it!
  20. #40 Nick Danger, Jul 26, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2018
    Doesn't look like the money is drying up before the election either and "the end of August" is rapidly approaching . . . in fact his fundraising is going so well, he's decided to run some ads (See above), instead of spending it all on GOTV!
    O'Rourke outraises Cruz again!

    And one more point, it was highlighted in another article the other day that 70% of Beto's contributions come from Texas . . . not "Hollywood" or even "nationally", while Cruz' contributions are basically split down the middle with 50% coming from Texas and the other 50% from out-of-state, both from national PAC's (3 of them to be exact) and individuals (probably from the same folks that will fund his Presidential campaign redo in 2024). So, any criticism of an "astroturf" base as opposed to a organic grassroots base should be directed at Cruz, not Beto. Cruz is bringing in significantly less money than Beto and only half of that is coming from his Texas supporters. ;)

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