#45 Kansas St. (12-2, 2-0) @ #234 TCU (8-7, 0-3)
8:00 PM CST
Daniel-Meyer Coliseum, Fort Worth, TX
TV: ESPNU
Radio: 570 KLIF / 88.7 KTCU
Line: Kansas St. -11 / 112.5
TCU Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets.com/20122013/TCU.html
Kansas St. Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets.com/20122013/Kansas_St..html
Game Breakdown & Prediction Center Page: http://www.cbbsheets.com/20122013/20130116_Kansas_St._TCU.html
Team Statistical Breakdown
Player Stats
CompCompare
3 Most Similar Teams
TCU: #196 Rider, #142 Vanderbilt, #172 Fresno St.
Kansas St.: #70 Providence, #67 Middle Tennessee, #79 Rutgers
5 Most Similar Matchups
1. November 23, 2012 - #98 Northwestern 55, #234 TCU 31
2. December 18, 2012 - #102 Southern 57, #234 TCU 68
3. December 8, 2012 - #76 Purdue 44, #270 Eastern Michigan
4. January 9, 2013 - #34 San Diego St. 65, #172 Fresno St. 62
5. November 15, 2012 - #64 Southern Miss 62, #162 Georgia 60
Most Similar Matchup for Baylor and TCU
TCU: November 23, 2012 - #98 Northwestern 55, TCU 31
Kansas St.: Kansas St. 65, @ #126 George Washington 62
Final Projected Records(Computer):
TCU: 8-22 (0-18)
Kansas St.: 21-9 (11-7)
TCU Chance of Winless Conference Record: 15.7%
Breakdown: Despite being overmatched in size and strength against Baylor, the Frogs played a good game. The used the entire shot clock to wear down Baylor and exploit the Bears weakness in depth. However, the Frogs still could not get enough shots to fall, falling by 11 in a respectable 51-40 loss. The defensive intensity was there and the Frogs actually were able to match Baylor toe to toe rebounding the ball. Perhaps the big story was the emergence of Charles Hill Jr., who saw 38 minutes and led the way with 12 points. The Frogs may have found their answer at shooting guard. In comes Kansas State, who is 12-2 on the year with an impressive win over Florida. But for the most part, the Wildcats have feasted on teams at home in the octagon of doom, and have squeaked by in both of their road matchups, and both road wins were over unimpressive teams. The Wildcats may be 12-2, but they are no juggernaut.
Style: Kansas State is a slower team that doesn't overwhelm anyone with size. Jordan Henriquez and Adrian Diaz are tall, but don't see a lot of minutes. Kansas State is built similar to TCU in having forwards who aren't tall, but athletic. They are going to try to beat you with their guards and athleticism, rather than sheer size and brawn like Baylor. TCU, on the other hand, will be facing a team similar to itself tonight when it comes to personel. Though Kansas State is the better and a bit more fast paced version, TCU will not be at a disadvantage on size or length, meaning whoever executes better will win.
TCU Scouting Report: The Frogs may have found an answer at shooting guard with Charles Hill Jr. Not only did he lead the way with 12 points, but he also led the team in rebounds with 8 despite being only 6 feet tall and playing on the perimeter most of the game. Look for him to be more involved to take the pressure off of Kyan Anderson and Garlon Green when it comes to taking jump shots. Garlon Green will still play the main role on offense, though he had a forgetable game at Baylor. Kyan Anderson also continues to struggle offensively, but is hoping that Hill and Green can take some of the pressure off. Look for Devonta Abron and Adrick McKinney to have a bigger role tonight, since they won't be trying to shoot over 7 footers like they had to face the past 2 games. They really need to pick up production on the offensive end to take the load off of the guards. They continue to be strong rebounders, however.
Kansas St. scouting report: Led by new coach Bruce Weber, he inherited an experienced bunch. The star is Rodney McGruder. Once Jacob Pullen's wing man, he has become the main man on this Wildcat team. The 6-4 senior guard will take 31% of his team's shots when he is on the floor. He is also the team's leader in Wins Above Replacement with 2.14. McGruder could do a better job of getting to the line though. After McGruder, there really isn't anyone who is a primary scoring threat. The point distribution is even. However, an offensive threat is 6-7 sophomore forward Thomas Gipson. The Frogs will need to box this guy out, because he is 13th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, rebounding 17.73% of his team's missed shots. The entire team is good at offensive rebounding with 4 players ranking in the top 100 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and 3rd nationally as a team. The Frogs need to limit second chance points. Guard Will Spradling is a floor general. He doesn't put up fancy numbers scoring, but he is a great ball handler and distrubtor, plus a good defender. 5-11 guard Angel Rodriguez rounds out the back court. Like Spradling, Rodriguez isn't a scoring guard, but he is a distrubtor, ranking 18th in assist rate. The other starter at forward is 6-5 sophomore Nino Williams, who is a rebounding threat and a stronger scoring threat than Gipson. 7-0 and 6-10 centers Jordan Henriquez and Adrian Diaz come off the bench, and may see more minutes tonight due to the fact they won't have to run the floor as much. Lastly, 6-6 guard Shane Southwell is the X-Factor. He is efficienct shooting the ball, leading the team in effective field goal percentage.
TCU keys to victory: Throw the first punch. This is something TCU has not done in conference play yet. Though they led at Baylor in the 2nd half, they fell behind early. TCU's patience on offense works a lot better when it is done from ahead. Wisconsin last night against Indiana did this, getting ahead and frustrating the Hooisers by using a lot of shot clock. This is only Kansas State's 3rd road game, so if TCU can jump out ahead, they can run out the clock to victory. Kansas State will not overwhelm them with size, so whoever executes better will win. It's a lot easier to execute a motion offense with a lead because nothing is forced on the offensive end.
Kansas State keys to victory: Get a double digit lead. TCU is not a team built to come back. The best way for Kansas State to get that double digit lead is to do what they do best, and that is rebound their missed shots to get 2nd chance points. Nothing kills a slow paced team like TCU more than points scored off an offensive rebound. Force TCU to get behind and start forcing shots on offense and it will be an easy win.
Trends: TCU is 0-3 when facing a team with a better defensive efficiency. Kansas State is 10-0 when facing a team with a worse offensive efficiency. They are also undefeated when having better total rebounding percentages than their opponent.
What will happen: Give me the Frogs tonight. I think the Baylor game, while a loss, gave TCU some confidence. They will come home tonight and play a team that has not played well on the road this year, and won't overwhelm or intimidate the Frogs when it comes to size. With Charles Hill Jr. hopefully providing a spark on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor, the Frogs now have another scoring threat to help take the pressure of the main guys. TCU will finally get to run their patient motion offense from ahead, which will frustrate Kansas State.
Prediction: TCU 55, Kansas State 51
GAMBLERS CORNER
I have said take TCU and the Under the past 2 games, and I have not been wrong yet. The oddsmakers are continuing to set the totals for TCU games lower and lower. Yet, I think that this game will still be under the total of 112.5. Take TCU +11 all day, with the under, and even sprinkle a bit on the TCU money line. I do think they can win this.
All statistics and predictions provided by www.cbbsheets.com
8:00 PM CST
Daniel-Meyer Coliseum, Fort Worth, TX
TV: ESPNU
Radio: 570 KLIF / 88.7 KTCU
Line: Kansas St. -11 / 112.5
TCU Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets.com/20122013/TCU.html
Kansas St. Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets.com/20122013/Kansas_St..html
Game Breakdown & Prediction Center Page: http://www.cbbsheets.com/20122013/20130116_Kansas_St._TCU.html
Team Statistical Breakdown
Player Stats
CompCompare
3 Most Similar Teams
TCU: #196 Rider, #142 Vanderbilt, #172 Fresno St.
Kansas St.: #70 Providence, #67 Middle Tennessee, #79 Rutgers
5 Most Similar Matchups
1. November 23, 2012 - #98 Northwestern 55, #234 TCU 31
2. December 18, 2012 - #102 Southern 57, #234 TCU 68
3. December 8, 2012 - #76 Purdue 44, #270 Eastern Michigan
4. January 9, 2013 - #34 San Diego St. 65, #172 Fresno St. 62
5. November 15, 2012 - #64 Southern Miss 62, #162 Georgia 60
Most Similar Matchup for Baylor and TCU
TCU: November 23, 2012 - #98 Northwestern 55, TCU 31
Kansas St.: Kansas St. 65, @ #126 George Washington 62
Final Projected Records(Computer):
TCU: 8-22 (0-18)
Kansas St.: 21-9 (11-7)
TCU Chance of Winless Conference Record: 15.7%
Breakdown: Despite being overmatched in size and strength against Baylor, the Frogs played a good game. The used the entire shot clock to wear down Baylor and exploit the Bears weakness in depth. However, the Frogs still could not get enough shots to fall, falling by 11 in a respectable 51-40 loss. The defensive intensity was there and the Frogs actually were able to match Baylor toe to toe rebounding the ball. Perhaps the big story was the emergence of Charles Hill Jr., who saw 38 minutes and led the way with 12 points. The Frogs may have found their answer at shooting guard. In comes Kansas State, who is 12-2 on the year with an impressive win over Florida. But for the most part, the Wildcats have feasted on teams at home in the octagon of doom, and have squeaked by in both of their road matchups, and both road wins were over unimpressive teams. The Wildcats may be 12-2, but they are no juggernaut.
Style: Kansas State is a slower team that doesn't overwhelm anyone with size. Jordan Henriquez and Adrian Diaz are tall, but don't see a lot of minutes. Kansas State is built similar to TCU in having forwards who aren't tall, but athletic. They are going to try to beat you with their guards and athleticism, rather than sheer size and brawn like Baylor. TCU, on the other hand, will be facing a team similar to itself tonight when it comes to personel. Though Kansas State is the better and a bit more fast paced version, TCU will not be at a disadvantage on size or length, meaning whoever executes better will win.
TCU Scouting Report: The Frogs may have found an answer at shooting guard with Charles Hill Jr. Not only did he lead the way with 12 points, but he also led the team in rebounds with 8 despite being only 6 feet tall and playing on the perimeter most of the game. Look for him to be more involved to take the pressure off of Kyan Anderson and Garlon Green when it comes to taking jump shots. Garlon Green will still play the main role on offense, though he had a forgetable game at Baylor. Kyan Anderson also continues to struggle offensively, but is hoping that Hill and Green can take some of the pressure off. Look for Devonta Abron and Adrick McKinney to have a bigger role tonight, since they won't be trying to shoot over 7 footers like they had to face the past 2 games. They really need to pick up production on the offensive end to take the load off of the guards. They continue to be strong rebounders, however.
Kansas St. scouting report: Led by new coach Bruce Weber, he inherited an experienced bunch. The star is Rodney McGruder. Once Jacob Pullen's wing man, he has become the main man on this Wildcat team. The 6-4 senior guard will take 31% of his team's shots when he is on the floor. He is also the team's leader in Wins Above Replacement with 2.14. McGruder could do a better job of getting to the line though. After McGruder, there really isn't anyone who is a primary scoring threat. The point distribution is even. However, an offensive threat is 6-7 sophomore forward Thomas Gipson. The Frogs will need to box this guy out, because he is 13th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, rebounding 17.73% of his team's missed shots. The entire team is good at offensive rebounding with 4 players ranking in the top 100 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and 3rd nationally as a team. The Frogs need to limit second chance points. Guard Will Spradling is a floor general. He doesn't put up fancy numbers scoring, but he is a great ball handler and distrubtor, plus a good defender. 5-11 guard Angel Rodriguez rounds out the back court. Like Spradling, Rodriguez isn't a scoring guard, but he is a distrubtor, ranking 18th in assist rate. The other starter at forward is 6-5 sophomore Nino Williams, who is a rebounding threat and a stronger scoring threat than Gipson. 7-0 and 6-10 centers Jordan Henriquez and Adrian Diaz come off the bench, and may see more minutes tonight due to the fact they won't have to run the floor as much. Lastly, 6-6 guard Shane Southwell is the X-Factor. He is efficienct shooting the ball, leading the team in effective field goal percentage.
TCU keys to victory: Throw the first punch. This is something TCU has not done in conference play yet. Though they led at Baylor in the 2nd half, they fell behind early. TCU's patience on offense works a lot better when it is done from ahead. Wisconsin last night against Indiana did this, getting ahead and frustrating the Hooisers by using a lot of shot clock. This is only Kansas State's 3rd road game, so if TCU can jump out ahead, they can run out the clock to victory. Kansas State will not overwhelm them with size, so whoever executes better will win. It's a lot easier to execute a motion offense with a lead because nothing is forced on the offensive end.
Kansas State keys to victory: Get a double digit lead. TCU is not a team built to come back. The best way for Kansas State to get that double digit lead is to do what they do best, and that is rebound their missed shots to get 2nd chance points. Nothing kills a slow paced team like TCU more than points scored off an offensive rebound. Force TCU to get behind and start forcing shots on offense and it will be an easy win.
Trends: TCU is 0-3 when facing a team with a better defensive efficiency. Kansas State is 10-0 when facing a team with a worse offensive efficiency. They are also undefeated when having better total rebounding percentages than their opponent.
What will happen: Give me the Frogs tonight. I think the Baylor game, while a loss, gave TCU some confidence. They will come home tonight and play a team that has not played well on the road this year, and won't overwhelm or intimidate the Frogs when it comes to size. With Charles Hill Jr. hopefully providing a spark on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor, the Frogs now have another scoring threat to help take the pressure of the main guys. TCU will finally get to run their patient motion offense from ahead, which will frustrate Kansas State.
Prediction: TCU 55, Kansas State 51
GAMBLERS CORNER
I have said take TCU and the Under the past 2 games, and I have not been wrong yet. The oddsmakers are continuing to set the totals for TCU games lower and lower. Yet, I think that this game will still be under the total of 112.5. Take TCU +11 all day, with the under, and even sprinkle a bit on the TCU money line. I do think they can win this.
All statistics and predictions provided by www.cbbsheets.com
