#242 TCU (8-5, 0-1) @ #20 Oklahoma State (10-3, 0-1)
7:00 PM CST
Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK
TV: Big 12 Network
Radio: 570 KLIF / 88.7 KTCU
Line: Oklahoma State -20 / 117
TCU Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...122013/TCU.html
Oklahoma State Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...lahoma_St..html
Game Breakdown & Prediction Center Page: http://www.cbbsheets...lahoma_St..html
Team Statistical Breakdown
Individual Stats Cheat Sheet
CompCompare™
3 Most Similar Teams
TCU: #280 Georgia Southern, #170 Fresno St., #220 Jacksonville St.
Oklahoma St.: #60 Marquette, #46 Oklahoma, #65 Connecticut
5 Most Similar Matchups
1. December 8, 2012: #210 Missouri St. 42, @ #20 Oklahoma St. 62
2. November 17, 2012: #294 Howard 50, @ #23 Wichita St. 69
3. December 1, 2012: #275 Northern Kentucky 43, @ #16 Ohio St. 70
4. November 25, 2012: #219 Portland 54, @ #58 New Mexico 69
5. November 15, 2012: #294 Howard 36, @ #47 Iowa 66
Most Similar Matchup for Oklahoma State and TCU
TCU: December 8, 2012: TCU 49, @ #162 Tulsa 50
Oklahoma St.: December 8, 2012: #210 Missouri St. 42, @ Oklahoma St. 62
Final Projected Records:
TCU: 8-22 (0-18)
Oklahoma St.: 24-6 (14-4)
TCU Chance of Winless Conference Record: 18.3%
Breakdown: After dropping the best chance for a Big 12 win this year, TCU will have to upset someone to get that win this season. They are not given greater than a 32.5% chance at another win this season, and are below 10% more often than not. Enter going to Oklahoma State. A team who has had somewhat of a resurgence this year, with big wins over Akron and North Carolina State. Still, this team has work to do to get Travis Ford off the hot seat. With the students at Oklahoma State still gone for winter break, the arena won't be rocking like it usually is.
Style: We all know what TCU brings to the table. Slow, slower, and slowest. They rank in the slowest 10 nationally in possessions per game, and in the slowest 15 nationally in time of possession. They really have no choice - with the limited offensive talent on the team, they won't win a track meet. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has slowed it down this year. Travis Ford is known for a faster pace, but Oklahoma State is known for its defense in the past. The slower pace has paid off, as the Cowboys rank 13th nationally in Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage and 16th in Defensive Efficiency. The best defensive team TCU has faced to date, they have their offensive work cut out for them.
TCU Scouting Report: Offensively the team is in a funk. Watching the team, they have trouble penetrating defenses and creating open shots. This is because there really is no player on the offense who commands respect on the wing or double teams in the post. Therefore teams can simply run man to man defenses without worrying about getting beat. Two players tie for the highest personal offensive efficiences, Garlon Green and Devonta Abron at 15.06. Both rank in the Top 600 nationally. Green is a shooter, but often the only one on the floor, so he always draws the best defender in a defensive matchup. Abron is a true post player, but is prone to foul trouble - drawing 6.01 fouls per 40 minutes, good for the bottom 250 nationally. Because of this, he draws double teams because there really isn't another player on the floor for TCU who can make him pay. Abron also ranks 60th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. The other post player is Adrick McKinney, who also ranks in the top 100 nationally in defensive and total rebounding percentage. Kyan Anderson is the point guard, but Chris Zurcher has been seeing more and more minutes lately. This is for defensive reasons though, as Trent Johnson is trying to keep Kyan fresh on the offensive end. Zurcher really doesn't take many shots. The X-Factor is Connell Crossland. Last year simply a hustle player and defender, the 6-7 forward has improved his offensive game this year with a personal offensive efficiency of 9.86 while ranking in the Top 500 nationally in every rebounding percentage category.
Oklahoma State scouting report: Marcus Smart is the best player on the floor and is easily the best player TCU has seen this year. He takes 23.2% of Oklahoma State's shots, which ranks 27th nationally. A true point guard, he averages 5.46 assists per 60 possessions while also putting up 16.13 points per 60 possessions he is out on the floor. He is prone to turnovers though, with a turnover rate of 3.65. He also is a great defender, with a steal rate of 3.03 which ranks 32nd. Lastly, he gets to the line, shooting 6.48 free throws per 60 possessions. TCU will have their hands full with him. While the national media has focused on Marcus Smart, his fellow guard Markel Brown is having a good year too. Putting up 15.39 points per 60 possessions, he is a scoring threat, but he is not an assist threat or a foul drawing machine. Simply a shooting guard in its purest form, though he doesn't take that many 3s. The main 3 point shooting threat on the team is freshman guard Phil Forte, who makes about 3.03 3 pointers per 60 possessions. The Cowboys don't have a true center, with Le'Bryan Nash and Kamari Murphy getting the most minutes at 6-7 and 6-8 respectively. 6-11 Phillip Jurick plays, but only plays about 48.6% of his team's minutes and is extremely prone to foul trouble. Nash is purely an offensive forward - his defensive statistics are nearly non existant. He doesn't rebound or block. But he does put up good offensive numbers. Murphy and Jurick are their defensive oriented big men - Jurick ranks in the Top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and total rebounding percentage. Oklahoma State in general is a young team. Among their top 5 players in minutes, 3 are freshman, 1 is a sophomore and 1 is a junior. Jurick is the only senior who gets significant playing time.
TCU keys to victory: The key to victory will be to get ahead and sit on a lead for as long as possible. With their being less energy in the arena due to it still being winter break, the Frogs could catch Oklahoma State in a bit of a funk and slow start. TCU has to take the fight from the tip and get an early lead. While TCU will try to grind this game out defensively and use the shot clock, Oklahoma State wouldn't mind that style either. Oklahoma State can do both. So the key is to put all the pressure on the Cowboys and make them play from behind. The longer TCU can do that, the better chances they have of winning. Grinding out a defensive struggle and using 30 seconds of shot clock per possession is useless when you are down by 10 points with no offensive weapons.
Oklahoma State keys to victory: Jump out of the gate and put this game away in the 1st half. TCU does not have the offense to keep up in a scoring affair or to rally from a double digit deficit. Oklahoma State needs to take TCU out of the game early and ruin their confidence. With a team that struggles offensively like TCU, nothing shreds their confidence and puts pressure on their offensive game like getting an early lead.
Trends: All 5 of TCU's losses this year have come when their opponent has a better rebounding percentage and effective field goal percentage. Oklahoma State is only 2-2 when their opponent has a better fouls drawn rate.
What will happen: Oklahoma State might start slow, but they are too good defensively. TCU has struggled against bad defenses this year, and this defense is on another level. Oklahoma State will get their points, and grind out a double digit win. It won't be pretty for the Cowboys, but in the end it will be a double digit win and you really can't complain.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 58, TCU 44
Team and Individual Projections:
GAMBLERS CORNER
I am suprised to see TCU getting 20 points yet the total being only 117. The oddsmakers must see a low scoring game on both ends, and that is what is going to happen. But in such a low scoring game, those 20 points are worth a lot more. Therefore I see a lot of value in taking TCU and the 20 points. Oklahoma State has nothing to prove in this game, so as soon as they have the game in the bag they will pack up their bags and empty the bench. Take TCU and the 20 points and play the under.
All stats and info provided by www.cbbsheets.com
7:00 PM CST
Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK
TV: Big 12 Network
Radio: 570 KLIF / 88.7 KTCU
Line: Oklahoma State -20 / 117
TCU Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...122013/TCU.html
Oklahoma State Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...lahoma_St..html
Game Breakdown & Prediction Center Page: http://www.cbbsheets...lahoma_St..html
Team Statistical Breakdown
Individual Stats Cheat Sheet
CompCompare™
3 Most Similar Teams
TCU: #280 Georgia Southern, #170 Fresno St., #220 Jacksonville St.
Oklahoma St.: #60 Marquette, #46 Oklahoma, #65 Connecticut
5 Most Similar Matchups
1. December 8, 2012: #210 Missouri St. 42, @ #20 Oklahoma St. 62
2. November 17, 2012: #294 Howard 50, @ #23 Wichita St. 69
3. December 1, 2012: #275 Northern Kentucky 43, @ #16 Ohio St. 70
4. November 25, 2012: #219 Portland 54, @ #58 New Mexico 69
5. November 15, 2012: #294 Howard 36, @ #47 Iowa 66
Most Similar Matchup for Oklahoma State and TCU
TCU: December 8, 2012: TCU 49, @ #162 Tulsa 50
Oklahoma St.: December 8, 2012: #210 Missouri St. 42, @ Oklahoma St. 62
Final Projected Records:
TCU: 8-22 (0-18)
Oklahoma St.: 24-6 (14-4)
TCU Chance of Winless Conference Record: 18.3%
Breakdown: After dropping the best chance for a Big 12 win this year, TCU will have to upset someone to get that win this season. They are not given greater than a 32.5% chance at another win this season, and are below 10% more often than not. Enter going to Oklahoma State. A team who has had somewhat of a resurgence this year, with big wins over Akron and North Carolina State. Still, this team has work to do to get Travis Ford off the hot seat. With the students at Oklahoma State still gone for winter break, the arena won't be rocking like it usually is.
Style: We all know what TCU brings to the table. Slow, slower, and slowest. They rank in the slowest 10 nationally in possessions per game, and in the slowest 15 nationally in time of possession. They really have no choice - with the limited offensive talent on the team, they won't win a track meet. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has slowed it down this year. Travis Ford is known for a faster pace, but Oklahoma State is known for its defense in the past. The slower pace has paid off, as the Cowboys rank 13th nationally in Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage and 16th in Defensive Efficiency. The best defensive team TCU has faced to date, they have their offensive work cut out for them.
TCU Scouting Report: Offensively the team is in a funk. Watching the team, they have trouble penetrating defenses and creating open shots. This is because there really is no player on the offense who commands respect on the wing or double teams in the post. Therefore teams can simply run man to man defenses without worrying about getting beat. Two players tie for the highest personal offensive efficiences, Garlon Green and Devonta Abron at 15.06. Both rank in the Top 600 nationally. Green is a shooter, but often the only one on the floor, so he always draws the best defender in a defensive matchup. Abron is a true post player, but is prone to foul trouble - drawing 6.01 fouls per 40 minutes, good for the bottom 250 nationally. Because of this, he draws double teams because there really isn't another player on the floor for TCU who can make him pay. Abron also ranks 60th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. The other post player is Adrick McKinney, who also ranks in the top 100 nationally in defensive and total rebounding percentage. Kyan Anderson is the point guard, but Chris Zurcher has been seeing more and more minutes lately. This is for defensive reasons though, as Trent Johnson is trying to keep Kyan fresh on the offensive end. Zurcher really doesn't take many shots. The X-Factor is Connell Crossland. Last year simply a hustle player and defender, the 6-7 forward has improved his offensive game this year with a personal offensive efficiency of 9.86 while ranking in the Top 500 nationally in every rebounding percentage category.
Oklahoma State scouting report: Marcus Smart is the best player on the floor and is easily the best player TCU has seen this year. He takes 23.2% of Oklahoma State's shots, which ranks 27th nationally. A true point guard, he averages 5.46 assists per 60 possessions while also putting up 16.13 points per 60 possessions he is out on the floor. He is prone to turnovers though, with a turnover rate of 3.65. He also is a great defender, with a steal rate of 3.03 which ranks 32nd. Lastly, he gets to the line, shooting 6.48 free throws per 60 possessions. TCU will have their hands full with him. While the national media has focused on Marcus Smart, his fellow guard Markel Brown is having a good year too. Putting up 15.39 points per 60 possessions, he is a scoring threat, but he is not an assist threat or a foul drawing machine. Simply a shooting guard in its purest form, though he doesn't take that many 3s. The main 3 point shooting threat on the team is freshman guard Phil Forte, who makes about 3.03 3 pointers per 60 possessions. The Cowboys don't have a true center, with Le'Bryan Nash and Kamari Murphy getting the most minutes at 6-7 and 6-8 respectively. 6-11 Phillip Jurick plays, but only plays about 48.6% of his team's minutes and is extremely prone to foul trouble. Nash is purely an offensive forward - his defensive statistics are nearly non existant. He doesn't rebound or block. But he does put up good offensive numbers. Murphy and Jurick are their defensive oriented big men - Jurick ranks in the Top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and total rebounding percentage. Oklahoma State in general is a young team. Among their top 5 players in minutes, 3 are freshman, 1 is a sophomore and 1 is a junior. Jurick is the only senior who gets significant playing time.
TCU keys to victory: The key to victory will be to get ahead and sit on a lead for as long as possible. With their being less energy in the arena due to it still being winter break, the Frogs could catch Oklahoma State in a bit of a funk and slow start. TCU has to take the fight from the tip and get an early lead. While TCU will try to grind this game out defensively and use the shot clock, Oklahoma State wouldn't mind that style either. Oklahoma State can do both. So the key is to put all the pressure on the Cowboys and make them play from behind. The longer TCU can do that, the better chances they have of winning. Grinding out a defensive struggle and using 30 seconds of shot clock per possession is useless when you are down by 10 points with no offensive weapons.
Oklahoma State keys to victory: Jump out of the gate and put this game away in the 1st half. TCU does not have the offense to keep up in a scoring affair or to rally from a double digit deficit. Oklahoma State needs to take TCU out of the game early and ruin their confidence. With a team that struggles offensively like TCU, nothing shreds their confidence and puts pressure on their offensive game like getting an early lead.
Trends: All 5 of TCU's losses this year have come when their opponent has a better rebounding percentage and effective field goal percentage. Oklahoma State is only 2-2 when their opponent has a better fouls drawn rate.
What will happen: Oklahoma State might start slow, but they are too good defensively. TCU has struggled against bad defenses this year, and this defense is on another level. Oklahoma State will get their points, and grind out a double digit win. It won't be pretty for the Cowboys, but in the end it will be a double digit win and you really can't complain.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 58, TCU 44
Team and Individual Projections:
GAMBLERS CORNER
I am suprised to see TCU getting 20 points yet the total being only 117. The oddsmakers must see a low scoring game on both ends, and that is what is going to happen. But in such a low scoring game, those 20 points are worth a lot more. Therefore I see a lot of value in taking TCU and the 20 points. Oklahoma State has nothing to prove in this game, so as soon as they have the game in the bag they will pack up their bags and empty the bench. Take TCU and the 20 points and play the under.
All stats and info provided by www.cbbsheets.com
