#238 TCU (8-6, 0-2) @ #21 Baylor (10-4, 2-0)
5:00 PM CST
Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
TV: Big 12 Network
Radio: 570 KLIF / 88.7 KTCU
Line: Baylor -19 / 126
TCU Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...122013/TCU.html
Baylor Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...013/Baylor.html
Game Breakdown & Prediction Center Page: http://www.cbbsheets...TCU_Baylor.html
Team Statistical Breakdown
Player Stats
CompCompare
3 Most Similar Teams
TCU: #145 Fresno St., #213 Jacksonville St., #147 Rhode Island
Baylor: #34 Illinois, #33 Akron, #72 La Salle
5 Most Similar Matchups
1. November 13, 2012 - (277) Alcorn St. 54, (17) Missouri 91
2. November 24, 2012 - (168) College of Charleston 63, (21) Baylor 59
3. December 22, 2012 - (145) Fresno St. 78, (27) UCLA 91
4. November 10, 2012 - (233) Portland 52, (70) Ohio 81
5. November 24, 2012 - (254) Manhattan 58, (59) Dayton 66
Most Similar Matchup for Baylor and TCU
TCU: January 9, 2013: TCU 45, @ #22 Oklahoma St. 63
Baylor: November 24, 2012: #168 College of Charleston 63, @ Baylor 59
Final Projected Records(Computer):
TCU: 8-22 (0-18)
Baylor: 20-10 (12-6)
TCU Chance of Winless Conference Record: 18.3%
Breakdown: In Stillwater, TCU got absolutely dominated on the boards and fell 63-45 to Oklahoma State. It wasn't a complete rout, but TCU was never really in it. Despite forcing 21 turnovers, the Cowboys forced more, and Oklahoma State simply got more open looks. Garlon Green led the way with 22 points, but got almost no help from anyone else, especially from the post players. Devonta Abron had no points as he was constantly trying to shoot the ball over a 6'11'' guy. If TCU is going to beat Baylor today, they will need more than one guy to step up. And with Baylor's 2-3 zone, the outside shooters are going to have to have a good day to keep the game close.
Style: TCU did speed things up a tad in Stillwater, but that wa likely the result of having to play behind most of the game. TCU still wants to keep it as slow as possible. This should bode well against Baylor's zone, the more they move the ball around the more likely the zone will breakdown at some point and have an open look. But TCU will have to knock down the jump shots, something they have failed to do all year. Baylor does a great job of taking away the 3 point shot, only allowing 14.2 3 point attempts per game. Offensively, Baylor is pretty good, ranking 14th nationally in offensive efficiency. They are really strong at scoring inside. Devonta Abron and Adrick McKinney are going to have to have a good defensive game because Baylor's strength is points in the paint. And in case TCU tries to take away the middle, Baylor has some outside shooters too.
TCU Scouting Report: Last time out TCU got absolutely no help from its post players and forwards. Devonta Abron's offensive output was non existant, Adrick McKinney wasn't much better with only 7 points and 3 turnovers. Even more importantly the two had bad rebounding games. Connell Crossland also had a bad game, scoring only one point and turning the ball over 4 times. Forward play is going to be a factor in this game, they need to rebound the ball and challenge shots inside. On the outside, Garlon Green continues to be the lone bright spot for the Frogs. He now ranks in the Top 10 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, and has become the Frogs top scoring threat. Another 20 point game will likely be needed. His resurgence has been heating up from 3 - after making no 3s the first 9 games of the year, he has now made 13 in the last 6. Kyan Anderson has had back to back bad games. He did not score a point in the first half against Oklahoma State, and another slow start will not be good. He needs to pick it up. Lastly, a player that may be starting to emerge from the shadows is Freshman guard Charles Hill Jr. He played 24 minutes against Oklahoma State, by far his most of the year. Despite only scoring 5 points, he had major contributions on the defensive end. He seems to be a hustle player like Connell Crossland in guard form.
Baylor scouting report: It starts and ends with Pierre Jackson. The 5-10 senior guard has been everywhere this year, ranking in the Top 100 nationally in many categories, including the Top 35 in offensive efficiency, assist rate, game score, and usage. He is the team's main offensive threat from the guard position. Containing him is the key, I would not be suprised to see TCU take the box-and-one approach on him today. He has scored at least 14 points in each game, and he ranks 1st in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency. This will be the top player TCU has faced this year, even more so than Marcus Smart. The other guard to watch out for is senior A.J. Walton. While not the scorer Jackson is, he is still good at distributing the ball and defending. He will steal the ball if he gets the chance. Brady Heslip is the team's designated outside shooter. 72% of his shots are 3 pointers, and he makes about 2.75 three pointers per 60 possesions, good for Top 200 nationally. He pretty much exists to shoot threes. The two big men are junior 6-9 forward Cory Jefferson and freshman 7-1 center Isaiah Austin. A lot of attention has been paid to Austin this year, but I think Jefferson is the bigger threat. Jefferson makes his shots, ranking in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage and 2 point field goal percentage, and does not turn the ball over for a big man. Jefferson is the stronger offensive rebounder and shot blocker than Austin. Isaiah Austin is more of a space eater to change shots, and is better at getting defensive boards, and slightly better at scoring. Both men are formidable inside. Baylor does not really use their bench, ranking 318th nationally in bench minutes. Only 3 bench players get meaningful playing time, those being forward Rico Gathers, and guards Gary Franklin and Deuce Bello. Franklin is a 3 point shooting threat off the bench, while Bello is a guard that is in for defense and rebounding for that position.
TCU keys to victory: Move the ball on offense and wait for an open look. Attacking a zone requires patience, team work, and smart ball movement. If a player wants to throw up a contested look with 25 seconds on the shot clock or care about their own numbers today, they don't need to suit up. Teamwork is the key today. On defense, they need to rebound the ball. Giving this team a second chance is a death spell with as well as they shoot the ball. Can't lose the boards 40-17 like they did on Wednesday. Lastly, believe they can win. College of Charleston came in and beat Baylor and Charleston has just as bad of an offense as TCU does. It can be done.
Baylor keys to victory: Use their size and length to suffocate TCU on both ends of the floor. On defense, use it to force turnovers when TCU is passing and keep TCU's forwards from getting the ball inside. On offense, simply muscle their way over the undersized Frogs. Rebound the ball and get 2nd chances, and Baylor can have this game put away by halftime.
Trends: TCU is 0-3 when facing a team with a better defensive efficiency. TCU is 6-0 when they are facing a team that doesn't draw as many fouls. Baylor is 6-0 when they have a better defensive rebounding percentage than their opponent. They are also 6-0 when they have a better defensive effective field goal percentage.
What will happen: This will be a lot similar to the Oklahoma State game. TCU just doesn't have the size to rebound the ball. While TCU's effort will keep it from being a complete rout, the 2nd chance points will be too much for the Frogs today. The Frogs just don't have the jump shooters to exploit the 2-3 zone Baylor employs.
Prediction: Baylor 69, TCU 53
Prediction Center
GAMBLERS CORNER
The line is similar to the Oklahoma State game. Once again, I see value in taking TCU +19 and the under(126). This game won't be pretty for either team, and like Oklahoma State, Baylor will take their foot off the gas when the game is in the bag. TCU covered against Oklahoma State and cashed the under, and I see the same thing happening today.
All statistics and predictions provided by www.cbbsheets.com
5:00 PM CST
Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
TV: Big 12 Network
Radio: 570 KLIF / 88.7 KTCU
Line: Baylor -19 / 126
TCU Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...122013/TCU.html
Baylor Team Page: http://www.cbbsheets...013/Baylor.html
Game Breakdown & Prediction Center Page: http://www.cbbsheets...TCU_Baylor.html
Team Statistical Breakdown
Player Stats
CompCompare
3 Most Similar Teams
TCU: #145 Fresno St., #213 Jacksonville St., #147 Rhode Island
Baylor: #34 Illinois, #33 Akron, #72 La Salle
5 Most Similar Matchups
1. November 13, 2012 - (277) Alcorn St. 54, (17) Missouri 91
2. November 24, 2012 - (168) College of Charleston 63, (21) Baylor 59
3. December 22, 2012 - (145) Fresno St. 78, (27) UCLA 91
4. November 10, 2012 - (233) Portland 52, (70) Ohio 81
5. November 24, 2012 - (254) Manhattan 58, (59) Dayton 66
Most Similar Matchup for Baylor and TCU
TCU: January 9, 2013: TCU 45, @ #22 Oklahoma St. 63
Baylor: November 24, 2012: #168 College of Charleston 63, @ Baylor 59
Final Projected Records(Computer):
TCU: 8-22 (0-18)
Baylor: 20-10 (12-6)
TCU Chance of Winless Conference Record: 18.3%
Breakdown: In Stillwater, TCU got absolutely dominated on the boards and fell 63-45 to Oklahoma State. It wasn't a complete rout, but TCU was never really in it. Despite forcing 21 turnovers, the Cowboys forced more, and Oklahoma State simply got more open looks. Garlon Green led the way with 22 points, but got almost no help from anyone else, especially from the post players. Devonta Abron had no points as he was constantly trying to shoot the ball over a 6'11'' guy. If TCU is going to beat Baylor today, they will need more than one guy to step up. And with Baylor's 2-3 zone, the outside shooters are going to have to have a good day to keep the game close.
Style: TCU did speed things up a tad in Stillwater, but that wa likely the result of having to play behind most of the game. TCU still wants to keep it as slow as possible. This should bode well against Baylor's zone, the more they move the ball around the more likely the zone will breakdown at some point and have an open look. But TCU will have to knock down the jump shots, something they have failed to do all year. Baylor does a great job of taking away the 3 point shot, only allowing 14.2 3 point attempts per game. Offensively, Baylor is pretty good, ranking 14th nationally in offensive efficiency. They are really strong at scoring inside. Devonta Abron and Adrick McKinney are going to have to have a good defensive game because Baylor's strength is points in the paint. And in case TCU tries to take away the middle, Baylor has some outside shooters too.
TCU Scouting Report: Last time out TCU got absolutely no help from its post players and forwards. Devonta Abron's offensive output was non existant, Adrick McKinney wasn't much better with only 7 points and 3 turnovers. Even more importantly the two had bad rebounding games. Connell Crossland also had a bad game, scoring only one point and turning the ball over 4 times. Forward play is going to be a factor in this game, they need to rebound the ball and challenge shots inside. On the outside, Garlon Green continues to be the lone bright spot for the Frogs. He now ranks in the Top 10 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, and has become the Frogs top scoring threat. Another 20 point game will likely be needed. His resurgence has been heating up from 3 - after making no 3s the first 9 games of the year, he has now made 13 in the last 6. Kyan Anderson has had back to back bad games. He did not score a point in the first half against Oklahoma State, and another slow start will not be good. He needs to pick it up. Lastly, a player that may be starting to emerge from the shadows is Freshman guard Charles Hill Jr. He played 24 minutes against Oklahoma State, by far his most of the year. Despite only scoring 5 points, he had major contributions on the defensive end. He seems to be a hustle player like Connell Crossland in guard form.
Baylor scouting report: It starts and ends with Pierre Jackson. The 5-10 senior guard has been everywhere this year, ranking in the Top 100 nationally in many categories, including the Top 35 in offensive efficiency, assist rate, game score, and usage. He is the team's main offensive threat from the guard position. Containing him is the key, I would not be suprised to see TCU take the box-and-one approach on him today. He has scored at least 14 points in each game, and he ranks 1st in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency. This will be the top player TCU has faced this year, even more so than Marcus Smart. The other guard to watch out for is senior A.J. Walton. While not the scorer Jackson is, he is still good at distributing the ball and defending. He will steal the ball if he gets the chance. Brady Heslip is the team's designated outside shooter. 72% of his shots are 3 pointers, and he makes about 2.75 three pointers per 60 possesions, good for Top 200 nationally. He pretty much exists to shoot threes. The two big men are junior 6-9 forward Cory Jefferson and freshman 7-1 center Isaiah Austin. A lot of attention has been paid to Austin this year, but I think Jefferson is the bigger threat. Jefferson makes his shots, ranking in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage and 2 point field goal percentage, and does not turn the ball over for a big man. Jefferson is the stronger offensive rebounder and shot blocker than Austin. Isaiah Austin is more of a space eater to change shots, and is better at getting defensive boards, and slightly better at scoring. Both men are formidable inside. Baylor does not really use their bench, ranking 318th nationally in bench minutes. Only 3 bench players get meaningful playing time, those being forward Rico Gathers, and guards Gary Franklin and Deuce Bello. Franklin is a 3 point shooting threat off the bench, while Bello is a guard that is in for defense and rebounding for that position.
TCU keys to victory: Move the ball on offense and wait for an open look. Attacking a zone requires patience, team work, and smart ball movement. If a player wants to throw up a contested look with 25 seconds on the shot clock or care about their own numbers today, they don't need to suit up. Teamwork is the key today. On defense, they need to rebound the ball. Giving this team a second chance is a death spell with as well as they shoot the ball. Can't lose the boards 40-17 like they did on Wednesday. Lastly, believe they can win. College of Charleston came in and beat Baylor and Charleston has just as bad of an offense as TCU does. It can be done.
Baylor keys to victory: Use their size and length to suffocate TCU on both ends of the floor. On defense, use it to force turnovers when TCU is passing and keep TCU's forwards from getting the ball inside. On offense, simply muscle their way over the undersized Frogs. Rebound the ball and get 2nd chances, and Baylor can have this game put away by halftime.
Trends: TCU is 0-3 when facing a team with a better defensive efficiency. TCU is 6-0 when they are facing a team that doesn't draw as many fouls. Baylor is 6-0 when they have a better defensive rebounding percentage than their opponent. They are also 6-0 when they have a better defensive effective field goal percentage.
What will happen: This will be a lot similar to the Oklahoma State game. TCU just doesn't have the size to rebound the ball. While TCU's effort will keep it from being a complete rout, the 2nd chance points will be too much for the Frogs today. The Frogs just don't have the jump shooters to exploit the 2-3 zone Baylor employs.
Prediction: Baylor 69, TCU 53
Prediction Center
GAMBLERS CORNER
The line is similar to the Oklahoma State game. Once again, I see value in taking TCU +19 and the under(126). This game won't be pretty for either team, and like Oklahoma State, Baylor will take their foot off the gas when the game is in the bag. TCU covered against Oklahoma State and cashed the under, and I see the same thing happening today.
All statistics and predictions provided by www.cbbsheets.com
