• The KillerFrogs

As expected #3 in Coaches Poll

Wexahu

Full Member
Only teams you can really make an argument for being over Oregon and Oregon state are Tulane, UNC, and maybe Texas and UTSA.

MY question is why is Oregon ranked over Oregon State?
Probably because Oregon is ahead in the conference standings. Head to head shouldn’t always trump other things.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
And since they don’t play a round robin, USC has wins over only two of them, UCLA and Oregon State. Lost to Utah, didn’t play Oregon or Washington.
They definitely got a break with the scheduling. Playing 9 games in a 12 team league, to have those two be the ones you don’t play is very fortunate.

A major reason why I don’t like 12+ team leagues, too much schedule imbalance. Think if the two teams you don’t play this year were Cal and Colorado and how different that would be relative to the other teams in the league.
 
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TCUdirtbag

Active Member
we HAVE to win out! If it comes down to a USC/TCU decision… with the Championship game being played in LA?
It's very unlikely going to "come down to a USC/TCU decision."

The scenarios are pretty straightforward today:
1. Status quo (UGA, UM, TCU, USC [if all win their CCGs]),
2. A "USC/tOSU decision" [TCU wins their CCG and is in, USC loses their CCG and is on the bubble],
3. A "TCU/tOSU" decision [USC wins their CCG and is in, TCU loses their CCG and is on the bubble], or
4. A "TCU/USC/tOSU ... and maybe even Alabama(?) free for all decision" if both TCU and USC lose their CCGs.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
It's very unlikely going to come down to a USC/TCU decision. The more likely result is status quo (UGA, UM, TCU, USC [if all win their CCGs]), or a "USC/tOSU decision" [TCU wins their CCG, USC loses their CCG], or a "TCU/tOSU" decision [USC wins their CCG, TCU loses their CCG]. If both TCU and USC lose their CCGs, it's a free for all and 3-way analysis of TCU/USC/tOSU..maybe even Alabama gets thrown in.
I don’t think USC has a prayer if they lose. If that happens OSU or Bama jump them. Probably OSU.

As for us, K-States high ranking and Notre Dame losing helps us. And the game at Texas really helps us when being compared to Alabama. I really think we are safe barring a BAD loss.
 

TCUdirtbag

Active Member
I don’t think USC has a prayer if they lose. If that happens OSU or Bama jump them. Probably OSU.

As for us, K-States high ranking and Notre Dame losing helps us. And the game at Texas really helps us when being compared to Alabama. I really think we are safe barring a BAD loss.
Agree on the first - but I do think those are the final two in such a scenario (USC/tOSU, with Ohio St getting the nod pretty quickly)
Mostly agree on the second - but I don't want to put my faith in the committee to not give in to big brand bias

Really interesting that K-State's AD is on the committee.

Looking at the CFPC Roster, it's littered with B1G (6 of 13) and other northern ties:
  • Michigan AD [B1G]
    • Former AD at UConn and Buffalo
    • 3x Michigan alum [B1G]
  • Kentucky AD [SEC]
    • Former Oregon State AD [PAC]
    • Former Tennessee administrator [SEC], Oregon administrator [PAC], and SDSU administrator [MW]
  • Colorado AD {PAC]
    • Former administrator at Vanderbilt [SEC] and Illinois [B1G]
    • Former Texas Rangers executive (?)
    • Illinois alum [B1G]
  • NC State AD [ACC], Chair
    • Former Army AD
    • Former administrator at Duke, Notre Dame, Navy, and Florida State
    • Notre Dame alum
  • K-State AD [Big 12]
    • Former Iowa Deputy AD [B1G]
    • Former NDSU AD [FCS]
    • Former Navy administrator [American]
    • Arizona State alum [PAC]
  • Wyoming AD [American]
  • Navy AD [American]
    • Former AD at Houston [American], Boston College [ACC], and Tulane [American]
    • BC alum [ACC]
  • Virginia Union AD [D2]
    • Former HC at Howard, VUU, Hampton, and FAMU
    • Western Illinois alum
  • Former HC at Wake Forest [ACC] and Ohio [MAC]
    • Former 1-year Baylor interim HC [Big 12]
    • UVA alum [ACC]
  • Former player at Nebraska [B1G]
  • Former player at Penn State [B1G]
  • Former player at Notre Dame
    • Also a 2x Tulane alum [American]
    • Former LSU Regent [SEC]
    • Former Sugar Bowl president
  • Rutgets Alum [B1G]
The Big 12 is barely represented here at all. The K-State AD is as close as it gets, and K-State is his only Big 12 tie (Iowa, NDSU, SMU, Arizona State). I don't count Jim Grobe's one year at Baylor as giving the otherwise long time-ACC man any Big 12 loyalty/respect.
 
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Wexahu

Full Member
Agree on the first - but I do think those are the final two in such a scenario (USC/tOSU, with Ohio St getting the nod pretty quickly)
Mostly agree on the second - but I don't want to put my faith in the committee to not give in to big brand bias

Really interesting that K-State's AD is on the committee.
Oh if we lose a close, competitive game I won’t be 100% confident, that’ll suck waiting that out. I just don’t see how they can then look at everything and move OSU or Bama ahead of us in that situation. I’ll eat crow and have major shade thrown my way if I’m wrong, I know that.

But if we go out and look bad and lose by 20+, at that point it’s kind of shame on us. And we could still maybe stay alive, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Just win. Please. As much as I’d like to prove all you naysayers wrong, I hope it doesn’t come to that. Lol.
 

Frog DJ

Active Member
I sincerely hope Wexahu is right, but deep down inside I still don’t trust the committee.

Ultimately, I think TCU needs to win out and remove all doubt, but a loss gives me pause.

From the beginning, the committee has shown it will shamelessly apply whatever formula it needs to justify its decisions.

However - again, I cling to the hope that Wexahu is correct and the Frogs are in.

Go Frogs!
 
It's very unlikely going to "come down to a USC/TCU decision."

The scenarios are pretty straightforward today:
1. Status quo (UGA, UM, TCU, USC [if all win their CCGs]),
2. A "USC/tOSU decision" [TCU wins their CCG and is in, USC loses their CCG and is on the bubble],
3. A "TCU/tOSU" decision [USC wins their CCG and is in, TCU loses their CCG and is on the bubble], or
4. A "TCU/USC/tOSU ... and maybe even Alabama(?) free for all decision" if both TCU and USC lose their CCGs.
5. Both TCU/USC lose their CCG… tOSU is back in the conversation, and likely gets in (they have been ranked #2 all season and think the committee will give them a bad game pass when voting) so the leaves us and USC
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I sincerely hope Wexahu is right, but deep down inside I still don’t trust the committee.

Ultimately, I think TCU needs to win out and remove all doubt, but a loss gives me pause.

From the beginning, the committee has shown it will shamelessly apply whatever formula it needs to justify its decisions.

However - again, I cling to the hope that Wexahu is correct and the Frogs are in.

Go Frogs!
Outright conference championship, 12-1 record vs 11-1 record and playing a tougher SOS is not "shamelessly" applying whatever formula they want. Those are actually very valid differences in resumes. Now, if this year we lose 28-20 and they say make something up like, well, blah blah blah, then yes, you'd have a valid point.

Imagine if Ohio State was sitting there at 11-1 and ranked #3 (and had not beaten a top 10 team) and idle this Saturday and we were 11-1 and then go out and beat Kansas State 59-0 to go 12-1 and claim a Big 12 championship. What would you be saying if they didn't move us ahead of OSU in that circumstance?
 

Wexahu

Full Member
10-2 Alabama who lost to and is ranked over 10-2 Tennessee
9-3 LSU who lost to and is ranked over 9-3 Florida State
9-3 Oregon lost to and is ranked over 9-3 Oregon State

It is almost that the games against one another don't matter...
Right. And Tennessee lost by a million to South Carolina. And Oregon is ahead of Oregon State in the Pac 12 standings....same division. Had Oregon State played at Georgia instead of at home against Boise State, they'd be 8-4. So I'm fine with it. Valid point I guess on LSU but let's see where the committee puts them.

You realize Baylor beat us in 2014, right? Same record. Nobody had a problem with us being ranked ahead of them for weeks. So it was Baylor that really got screwed. Ok, got it.
 
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