• The KillerFrogs

2018 TCU BASEBALL SEASON THREAD

Purp

Purp

Active Member
Sebastian S said:
Feltman is questionable to play.

Not sure why, coach did not talk about it too much.
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Weird. He seemed highly confident Sunday that he'd be ready for this weekend. I suppose questionable is much different than out, though. Maybe a little postseason hockey gamesmanship with the injury report?
 
TCUdirtbag

TCUdirtbag

Active Member
With an RPI still down at 66, I’m not sure a 7-0 run here even gets our RPI where it needs to be. Pretty close to big 12 tourney or bust.
 
S

Sebastian S

Active Member
TCUdirtbag said:
With an RPI still down at 66, I’m not sure a 7-0 run here even gets our RPI where it needs to be. Pretty close to big 12 tourney or bust.
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Coach is a little optimistic and thinks if we can end well(win out?), we may not need to win the tournament.

He also said he will think about cancelling the SFA game depending on where we sit at that point, he said this team needs playing time and also the seniors want to play all the games they can.

I think if he is sure we would need to win the tournament to get in- meaning we lose even 1 this weekend?, might as well play SFA for practice.

He was really pushing for DBU to play us instead of SFA but DBU declined.
 
S

Sebastian S

Active Member
Not a lot of baseball left but I think there is enough to give us an outside chance, even if we don't win the tournament.

We sweep WVU, coach cancels the SFA game and then we sweep Texas.
 
Pharm Frog

Pharm Frog

Full Member
TCUdirtbag said:
With an RPI still down at 66, I’m not sure a 7-0 run here even gets our RPI where it needs to be. Pretty close to big 12 tourney or bust.
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Agree. I was looking at teams above us up to #46. Things have not broken well for us in the past week relative to other teams' performance and there are teams above us that could be poised to pass us as well. Some team's remaining schedule are such that they probably won't fall much even with mediocre or poor closing series. And others are playing each other which means that we'd have to hope for a bevy of sweeps to send teams downstream. I think you are right and nothing happened this weekend to make me have any more confidence (although there's way too much in opponents' W/L for me to feel good about the projected calcs). And, for an at-large, we'd also need almost all conf tourney champs to be the highest ranked team in each conference. Any bubble busters may be fatal even with a 7-0 plus 3 win tournament. I think we need to become the bubble buster or off-season begins early.

Used #45 as a low end proxy for at-large.
 
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Pharm Frog

Pharm Frog

Full Member
Sebastian S said:
Coach is a little optimistic and thinks if we can end well(win out?), we may not need to win the tournament.

He also said he will think about cancelling the SFA game depending on where we sit at that point, he said this team needs playing time and also the seniors want to play all the games they can.

I think if he is sure we would need to win the tournament to get in- meaning we lose even 1 this weekend?, might as well play SFA for practice.

He was really pushing for DBU to play us instead of SFA but DBU declined.
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No win situation for DBU. They already beat Tech on the road and are sitting pretty with a closing series against Missouri State and Bradley on the road. Bradley is #73 so not much difference than our RPI AND they get them on the road.
 
Pharm Frog

Pharm Frog

Full Member
Interesting stats...

Last season the Frogs batted .268 and finished 47th in run scoring in D1 at 6.6.
This season to date the Frogs are batting .267 and are 122nd in run scoring at 5.8.

Staff ERA for 2017 was 3.91
Staff ERA to date for 2018 is 3.41

Scoring being down by a almost a run per game proving costly as Frogs won 70% of 1-2 run games last year and were 6-0 in extras. Currently winning 56% of 1-2 run games and are 1-3 in extras. Also, last season we were a positive .005 in fielding percentage v opposition. This season we are a negative .007. The margin between being pretty darn good and sitting where we are is small but meaningful.
 
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flyfishingfrog

Active Member
Pharm Frog said:
Interesting stats...

Last season the Frogs batted .268 and finished 47th in run scoring in D1 at 6.6.
This season to date the Frogs are batting .267 and are 122nd in run scoring at 5.8.

Staff ERA for 2017 was 3.91
Staff ERA to date for 2018 is 3.41

Scoring being down by a almost a run per game proving costly as Frogs won 70% of 1-2 run games last year and were 6-0 in extras. Currently winning 56% of 1-2 run games and are 1-3 in extras. Also, last season we were a positive .005 in fielding percentage v opposition. This season we are a negative .007. The margin between being pretty darn good and sitting where we are is small but meaningful.
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so basically we are getting more meaningless hits this year...which seems about right. Earlier this year, we had a good run where we were putting together 2 out rallies like we did last year a lot - but definitely feels like we have gotten a lot more hits this year where we couldn't get the runner around.

wonder what our LOB is this year vs last?
 
Purp

Purp

Active Member
flyfishingfrog said:
so basically we are getting more meaningless hits this year...which seems about right. Earlier this year, we had a good run where we were putting together 2 out rallies like we did last year a lot - but definitely feels like we have gotten a lot more hits this year where we couldn't get the runner around.

wonder what our LOB is this year vs last?
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I bet our LOB stats are pretty close to last year. We left guys on every inning last year also. It's been an epidemic for a while now. I think the key difference between the offense this year versus last is BA with RISP. I think more of our hits this year are coming with nobody on base than last year.

Last year we also seemed to come from behind every other night. Our run scoring in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings last year was silly and made every game stressful. Guys like Skoug, Wade, Barz, Merrill, and Cam seemed to get us a lot of clutch hits. We haven't had as many of those guys this season. I can think of Lando, Watson, Hump, and Luken/Rizer/Balta (when healthy) getting us similar clutch hits this year, but not quite at the same clip last year. I think think this stat may be the single biggest difference between this year's struggle and last year's success.
 
Purp

Purp

Active Member
yurintroubl said:
Unlike the football powers-that-be I trust the baseball powers-that-be. We see teams get in every year that are going on name recognition alone. I think we've earned that. Especially streaking at the end of the season
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The troubl for me is that I trust the baseball powers-that-be b/c they're far more consistent and formulaic in their evaluations than the football clown show (Wex and Todd have been triggered). As a result, I will not be surprised to see us excluded even if we finish strong. We need everything to go right for us from here on out and then we may still need some help.
 
K

kidkarr

Full Member
So if we drop one this weekend, why not let the young arms pitch the bulk of the innings and set ourselves up for a well rested tournament run
 
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FrogsMcGee

Active Member
Haven’t been running my typical RPI model this year but will try to put it together and calc some scenarios that include / exclude SFA so we can see if it benefits or hurts. Although they are low RPI it may still help due to being a road game. Will take a look and let you know.
 
Pharm Frog

Pharm Frog

Full Member
FrogsMcGee said:
Haven’t been running my typical RPI model this year but will try to put it together and calc some scenarios that include / exclude SFA so we can see if it benefits or hurts. Although they are low RPI it may still help due to being a road game. Will take a look and let you know.
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I think you’ll find that it won’t make much of a difference unless we were to lose it. I’ve been wanting to look up the average RPI of the #45 team over several years and close of regular season, calibrate it for this season, and run projections to see what it would take to get there. Intuitively I’m just not seeing that happen even with a perfect slate through the UT series but other teams would have a say on that too.
 
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FrogsMcGee

Active Member
45th last year was .5523, .5503 in 2016, and .5537 in 2015. As of today, 45th is .5567, but things always continue to migrate downward as the season progresses so I would expect it to settle a bit lower than it is now. TCU is currently .5417.
 
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FrogsMcGee

Active Member
First, potential impacts of the WVU series this weekend, all else equal:
3-0 = +.0059 = .5476 = 59th
2-1 = -.0002 = .5415 = 67th
1-2 = -.0060 = .5356 = 80th
0-3 = -.0118 = .5299 = 85th

Let's ignore the possibilities this weekend and isolate only the @SFA game vs our current resume.
Win = +.0013 = .5430 = 64th
Lose = -.0045 = .5372 = 77th

If we play and win all of the WVU + SFA games (all else equal), then we would be +.0071 = .5488 = 59th heading into the weekend at Texas. Scenarios from that point @ Texas:
3-0: +.0119 = .5607 = 40th
2-1: +.0070 = .5557 = 48th
1-2: +.0019 = .5506 = 57th
0-3: -.0033 = .5454 = 61st

This are very tightly bunched between .54-.56 from 40th to 70th, so the projected rankings shown could be very fluid. The raw scores should be close, although every game played impacts things.
 
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