TCUdirtbag
Active Member
Important Big 12 Non-Conference/RPI Series:
FrogsMcGee is the RPI mastermind and will surely keep us up to speed when the season gets here, but here's a brief reminder of the baseball RPI formula:
RPI = (AWP x .25) + (OAWP x .50) + (OOAWP x .25)
AWP: Adjusted win percentage (home win = .7 wins; home loss = 1.3 losses; road win = 1.3 wins; road loss = 0.7 losses)
OAWP: Opponents' adjusted win percentage (same adjustments as AWP)
OOAWP: Opponents opponents' adjusted win percentage (same adjustments as AWP)
As an aside, the basketball RPI is the same, without the home/road adjustments. As a bit of history, the adjustments were added in because a bunch of schools (cough, LSU, cough) were refusing to go on the road and running up their RPI by playing a ton of home games and racking up wins with home field advantage. This particularly disadvantaged teams up North that had to travel South in the early season because of weather.
So here are some important Big 12 series:
TCU / Tech / Baylor vs LSU / A&M / Ole Miss at Minute Maid
I'm not sure how Baylor got invited over OSU and UT, but here we are
Neutral site games are a true 1.0 wins / 1.0 losses
TCU-LSU could be a top 2, 5 or 10 matchup; winning 2 of 3 would be a huge accomplishment
If the Big 12 teams can pull out a > .500 record at this tournament, that would be huge for the conference RPI, but I fully expect Baylor to go 0-3, though, meaning TCU and Tech would have to combine for 5-1 for the Big 12 to "win" this tournament.
TCU:
vs. Arizona State
I don't like saying any regular season series are "must wins," but TCU needs to win this early home OOC series to prop up RPI. ASU is going to be a good squad, though.
@ UC Irvine (3) + Long Beach State (1)
The Anteaters and Dirtbags (no relation) are good west coast teams. This road trip (Spring Break!) should be a great test as the Frogs prepare for Big 12 play. Winning 3 of 4 would be an outstanding result.
@ California
This odd OOC road series is the last week of the regular season thanks to really weird Big 12 scheduling (9 baseball teams means someone is always off). The Frogs can give the league and themselves a boost heading in to the Big 12 Tournament.
As always, pray that home ACU game is rained out and don't shed a tear if the UTRGV, at ACU or SFA games aren't played.
Texas Tech:
@ Mississippi State (2)
This is a weird 3-team tournament in Starkville where Tech plays MSU and Western Illinois twice each.
vs. Cal (4)
One of those weird things where we play both of these teams 3x on the road. In the end, I suppose we should pull for a 2-2 split (adjusted RPI would mean a 2.6-1.4 Cal adjusted "win," and we can get up to 3.9 "wins" at Cal in May). This series is early, and I expect Tech will at least split at home.
vs. Arizona (1), vs. UNLV (2), vs./@ UNM (1/2), @ tOSU (2)
These are all midweek games and super interesting. Ohio State may be decent and the others will be good RPI opportunities -- the home games are need-to-wins, and the @ UNM and late @ tOSU are nice RPI road opportunities
Hope their Texas Southern, UTSA and NMSU games aren't all played.
Oklahoma State:
Frisco College Baseball Classic vs. Nebraska, Arkansas and Arizona
Huge neutral site opportunity for OSU and the league. Nearly as good as the Houston tournament.
No other impressive OOC series, honestly. Grand Canyon may not be awful, but Lamar, South Dakota State and Texas State aren't good weekend series. I'm disappointed with this schedule. It's not a national-seed worthy schedule unless they run the table at that Frisco Tournament, win at ASU and win the Big 12.
Midweek @ Arizona St, @ Oral Roberts, vs. Oral Roberts, vs. UNM
These are some decent midweek matchups. comparable to our meh midweek slate (maybe better overall, though we more than make up for it on the weekends). Need to win @ ORU and @ ASU.
Texas:
vs. Rice (4)
Tough way to open the season. Zero shame in a 2-2 split here, though a 3-1 series win would be a nice league boost and lead to a "Texas is back" after the Notre Dame game-type hype.
@ Stanford (4)
I think this is one of the most important OOC series in the league. Texas is probably a postseason team and this is a great road test. Texas' schedule isn't as brutal this year as it was last, though still very solid. This series will be a good barometer for the new coach. Split would be great.
vs. UCLA (3)
Another solid series. The Big 12 has a lot of quality Pac-12 OOC series, and the more we can win the better. Last year's no-west-coast-regionals was helpful for Big 12 recruiting. And with the Pac-12 playing round robin with no conference tournament, there's a lot of opportunities to really assert the Big 12 over the Pac. This is one of them.
Midweek vs. A&M (1), H&H w/ Sam Houston St and vs. Louisiana Lafayette (in Sugar Land)
These are very solid midweek games - the ULL game in Sugar Land is weird.
West Virginia:
This schedule isn't going to blow you away. But WVU isn't TCU/Texas etc. They'll play a lot of early road games because it's cold in WV in February.
@ Coastal Carolina (2)
This is the big one. They're playing a 4-team tournament at CCU with 2 games vs. the host defending national champs. Just a huge, huge opportunity for the Mountaineers very early in the season. A chance to make noise early
@ Tulane (3)
A solid road series on the heels of the CCU tournament. Split the CCU series and win 2 of 3 in NOLA and WVU will be in the conversation.
Midweek @ Maryland (1)
The best midweek game on the schedule is against a very strong program, whose 2017 squad I know nothing about.
Baylor:
vs. South Alabama (3)
South Alabama won over 40 games last year. The Bears open with a home series vs. Niagara, then host South Alabama before going to the Houston classic. This series really isn't as bad as you might expect and gives the Bears a chance to build heading into the Houston gauntlet. And remember, the Bears won a series against us last year.
vs. Houston (3)
After the Houston classic, the Bears continue a tough schedule with this series. Sandwiched between the tournament and this series is a road game at SHSU. The Bears' schedule starts slow, but these are 10-11 really tough days. Houston will obviously field a very solid team. After this series, the Bears head to DBU for a Tuesday game. Again, another tough test. We'll know a lot about Baylor at this point in the season.
@ Washington (3)
Preseason #21 in CBN, the Huskies are a solid squad and Baylor is yet another Big 12 team with a chance to win a tough Pac-12 OOC series. Can really boost the league again here.
Oklahoma:
@ Long Beach St
This is an opening weekend series that OU is likely to lose. Pharm will know more about the 2017 OU squad than I do.
@ Michigan
Another well-scheduled series, but again--may be beyond this Sooners team's reach. Would be a great RPI boost for the Big 12, though, if they can win 2.
Midweek H&H w/ ORU, @ DBU, @ Georgia Tech
Good midweek games
They have some hot garbage OOC series: 2 vs. Grambling State, 4 vs. Central Connecticut State (seriously?), 4 vs. Buffalo and 3 vs. Kennesaw State. Not good for the league. They need to win and they need some to be cancelled.
Kansas:
Opening weekend tournament vs. Citadel, Liberty & Virginia
Liberty is decent and UVA is a solid opponent. Good early test for the Jayhawks.
@ Stanford
Tough series but another Big 12 opportunity vs. the Pac-12. Texas also plays at Stanford this year.
Midweek games vs. Missouri State, Creighton, and Oral Roberts
Decent here, depending on how these opponents' seasons go
Lots of hot garbage here, with weekend series vs. Northwestern State, Houston Baptist, Samford and Texas Southern. Not a good look for the league.
Kansas State:
Early season tournaments: away/neutral site vs. Ohio State (2), Liberty (2), Pitt (1) and South Carolina (1)
Not bad at all. Need to get some wins. Interesting measuring stick vs. SCAR - should be an interest gauge on the team early.
Otherwise their weekend OOC series are total garbage. Some good midweek games though-Nebraska, Arkansas, Creighton, Wichita St, and New Mexico. I guess the weekend series vs. Iowa isn't awful.
FrogsMcGee is the RPI mastermind and will surely keep us up to speed when the season gets here, but here's a brief reminder of the baseball RPI formula:
RPI = (AWP x .25) + (OAWP x .50) + (OOAWP x .25)
AWP: Adjusted win percentage (home win = .7 wins; home loss = 1.3 losses; road win = 1.3 wins; road loss = 0.7 losses)
OAWP: Opponents' adjusted win percentage (same adjustments as AWP)
OOAWP: Opponents opponents' adjusted win percentage (same adjustments as AWP)
As an aside, the basketball RPI is the same, without the home/road adjustments. As a bit of history, the adjustments were added in because a bunch of schools (cough, LSU, cough) were refusing to go on the road and running up their RPI by playing a ton of home games and racking up wins with home field advantage. This particularly disadvantaged teams up North that had to travel South in the early season because of weather.
So here are some important Big 12 series:
TCU / Tech / Baylor vs LSU / A&M / Ole Miss at Minute Maid
I'm not sure how Baylor got invited over OSU and UT, but here we are
Neutral site games are a true 1.0 wins / 1.0 losses
TCU-LSU could be a top 2, 5 or 10 matchup; winning 2 of 3 would be a huge accomplishment
If the Big 12 teams can pull out a > .500 record at this tournament, that would be huge for the conference RPI, but I fully expect Baylor to go 0-3, though, meaning TCU and Tech would have to combine for 5-1 for the Big 12 to "win" this tournament.
TCU:
vs. Arizona State
I don't like saying any regular season series are "must wins," but TCU needs to win this early home OOC series to prop up RPI. ASU is going to be a good squad, though.
@ UC Irvine (3) + Long Beach State (1)
The Anteaters and Dirtbags (no relation) are good west coast teams. This road trip (Spring Break!) should be a great test as the Frogs prepare for Big 12 play. Winning 3 of 4 would be an outstanding result.
@ California
This odd OOC road series is the last week of the regular season thanks to really weird Big 12 scheduling (9 baseball teams means someone is always off). The Frogs can give the league and themselves a boost heading in to the Big 12 Tournament.
As always, pray that home ACU game is rained out and don't shed a tear if the UTRGV, at ACU or SFA games aren't played.
Texas Tech:
@ Mississippi State (2)
This is a weird 3-team tournament in Starkville where Tech plays MSU and Western Illinois twice each.
vs. Cal (4)
One of those weird things where we play both of these teams 3x on the road. In the end, I suppose we should pull for a 2-2 split (adjusted RPI would mean a 2.6-1.4 Cal adjusted "win," and we can get up to 3.9 "wins" at Cal in May). This series is early, and I expect Tech will at least split at home.
vs. Arizona (1), vs. UNLV (2), vs./@ UNM (1/2), @ tOSU (2)
These are all midweek games and super interesting. Ohio State may be decent and the others will be good RPI opportunities -- the home games are need-to-wins, and the @ UNM and late @ tOSU are nice RPI road opportunities
Hope their Texas Southern, UTSA and NMSU games aren't all played.
Oklahoma State:
Frisco College Baseball Classic vs. Nebraska, Arkansas and Arizona
Huge neutral site opportunity for OSU and the league. Nearly as good as the Houston tournament.
No other impressive OOC series, honestly. Grand Canyon may not be awful, but Lamar, South Dakota State and Texas State aren't good weekend series. I'm disappointed with this schedule. It's not a national-seed worthy schedule unless they run the table at that Frisco Tournament, win at ASU and win the Big 12.
Midweek @ Arizona St, @ Oral Roberts, vs. Oral Roberts, vs. UNM
These are some decent midweek matchups. comparable to our meh midweek slate (maybe better overall, though we more than make up for it on the weekends). Need to win @ ORU and @ ASU.
Texas:
vs. Rice (4)
Tough way to open the season. Zero shame in a 2-2 split here, though a 3-1 series win would be a nice league boost and lead to a "Texas is back" after the Notre Dame game-type hype.
@ Stanford (4)
I think this is one of the most important OOC series in the league. Texas is probably a postseason team and this is a great road test. Texas' schedule isn't as brutal this year as it was last, though still very solid. This series will be a good barometer for the new coach. Split would be great.
vs. UCLA (3)
Another solid series. The Big 12 has a lot of quality Pac-12 OOC series, and the more we can win the better. Last year's no-west-coast-regionals was helpful for Big 12 recruiting. And with the Pac-12 playing round robin with no conference tournament, there's a lot of opportunities to really assert the Big 12 over the Pac. This is one of them.
Midweek vs. A&M (1), H&H w/ Sam Houston St and vs. Louisiana Lafayette (in Sugar Land)
These are very solid midweek games - the ULL game in Sugar Land is weird.
West Virginia:
This schedule isn't going to blow you away. But WVU isn't TCU/Texas etc. They'll play a lot of early road games because it's cold in WV in February.
@ Coastal Carolina (2)
This is the big one. They're playing a 4-team tournament at CCU with 2 games vs. the host defending national champs. Just a huge, huge opportunity for the Mountaineers very early in the season. A chance to make noise early
@ Tulane (3)
A solid road series on the heels of the CCU tournament. Split the CCU series and win 2 of 3 in NOLA and WVU will be in the conversation.
Midweek @ Maryland (1)
The best midweek game on the schedule is against a very strong program, whose 2017 squad I know nothing about.
Baylor:
vs. South Alabama (3)
South Alabama won over 40 games last year. The Bears open with a home series vs. Niagara, then host South Alabama before going to the Houston classic. This series really isn't as bad as you might expect and gives the Bears a chance to build heading into the Houston gauntlet. And remember, the Bears won a series against us last year.
vs. Houston (3)
After the Houston classic, the Bears continue a tough schedule with this series. Sandwiched between the tournament and this series is a road game at SHSU. The Bears' schedule starts slow, but these are 10-11 really tough days. Houston will obviously field a very solid team. After this series, the Bears head to DBU for a Tuesday game. Again, another tough test. We'll know a lot about Baylor at this point in the season.
@ Washington (3)
Preseason #21 in CBN, the Huskies are a solid squad and Baylor is yet another Big 12 team with a chance to win a tough Pac-12 OOC series. Can really boost the league again here.
Oklahoma:
@ Long Beach St
This is an opening weekend series that OU is likely to lose. Pharm will know more about the 2017 OU squad than I do.
@ Michigan
Another well-scheduled series, but again--may be beyond this Sooners team's reach. Would be a great RPI boost for the Big 12, though, if they can win 2.
Midweek H&H w/ ORU, @ DBU, @ Georgia Tech
Good midweek games
They have some hot garbage OOC series: 2 vs. Grambling State, 4 vs. Central Connecticut State (seriously?), 4 vs. Buffalo and 3 vs. Kennesaw State. Not good for the league. They need to win and they need some to be cancelled.
Kansas:
Opening weekend tournament vs. Citadel, Liberty & Virginia
Liberty is decent and UVA is a solid opponent. Good early test for the Jayhawks.
@ Stanford
Tough series but another Big 12 opportunity vs. the Pac-12. Texas also plays at Stanford this year.
Midweek games vs. Missouri State, Creighton, and Oral Roberts
Decent here, depending on how these opponents' seasons go
Lots of hot garbage here, with weekend series vs. Northwestern State, Houston Baptist, Samford and Texas Southern. Not a good look for the league.
Kansas State:
Early season tournaments: away/neutral site vs. Ohio State (2), Liberty (2), Pitt (1) and South Carolina (1)
Not bad at all. Need to get some wins. Interesting measuring stick vs. SCAR - should be an interest gauge on the team early.
Otherwise their weekend OOC series are total garbage. Some good midweek games though-Nebraska, Arkansas, Creighton, Wichita St, and New Mexico. I guess the weekend series vs. Iowa isn't awful.