Yahoo! Sports: AAC attempting to take all eight remaining Big 12 members

[watchoutforthelizard]

In general I’d say we are greatly under estimating the condition of the remaining 8 in 2-3 years. Every school in the big, sec (ou &texas…..),pac 12 have an advantage now. Transfer portal will kill the 8. Yes today we have an amazing position but for the foreseeable future if I’m talented enough to play for today’s Tcu/tech/osu etc I’m choosing something more stable if I dont have a family tie or likewise to those schools.

while we make the best cash sticking it to Texas, Ou and ESPN our brand will deteriorate every year we let our future look uncertain, and our talent will decline.[/

I would doubt there is any scenario minus an invitation to BIG10/PAC 12/ACC where TCU or any of the remaining 8 salvage their brand. Going to a dumpster fire kids table conference AAC would crush recruiting, sales, fundraising and brand. Why not wait it out and see what else might be out there as that way at least you get paid. Going to AAC does nothing but put final nail in coffin on remaining a legitimate program.

 

[Jared7]

Full disclosure: I'm a UH grad.
As for riding out the next 4 years with UT and OU in the conference, there is virtually no way that happens. Although it seems unlikely that the Big12 will splinter in the near term--because they have nowhere to go currently--surely UT and OU (maybe with the help of ESPN) will write checks (likely at a discount to the amounts owed) and move on. And I think that's why the AAC discussion is pertinent now.

You've been reading UT propaganda. The Big 12 by-laws provide that the Big 12 will begin to withhold conference distribution payments immediately from UT and OU - they're about $40 million per year, and for 4 years, that'll be about $160 million. Each. ESPN, Fox, the Sugar Bowl, the NCAA (for hoops credits) and others will be paying that money directly to the Big 12 and UT won't see any of that. Ever.

If UT wants out early, it'll be a lot more and they will cut additional checks made payable to the Big 12. (Of course, it's all subject to settlement negotiations, and if otherwise agreed, it could be an agreed amount). UT is under the delusion that the exit fee is $80 million, but they stupidly noticed 4 years early rather than the required 18-months - that is only beginning to dawn on them. Further, they have this delusional assumption that a "discount" is "always" applied - that is not accurate. TCU paid the full Big East exit fee ($5 million) and other schools have done so as well. Discounts apply when there are other mitigating factors (not present here) and the Withdrawing School hasn't blatantly breached a 99-year commitment, a 12-hour notice provision and a requirement that they immediately and firmly reject any offer from another conference.

if UT wants to leave early, the onus is now on them to make us an offer - and it better be well in excess of the $80 million they think they owe.

Until this is resolved, the Big 12 has no interest in pursuing expansion at this time. Moreover, the AAC notice window is 27 months - talk to us again in about 1 year and a half. It would be earlier if and only if UT settles for an agreed amount.

 

[asleep003]

All of the Big 12 schools will have their pick of whatever G5 conference. With the AAC being the best then that's where they'd likely end up if it came to that. Any other line of thinking is delusional because A) all of these 8 programs would bring added value to that league and B) if it comes to that then it won't be all 8 of the leftover schools. It will only be what's left of schools who didn't get the invite to other power conferences because C) if none of the Big 12 leftovers get invited to other power conferences then there's no reason for them to break up at all and will instead add however many teams they want from the G5 leagues.

As to Houston getting an invite. It sucks for you guys because you're absolutely deserving but the likelihood of the conference adding another Texas team is incredibly small unless they decide they want to go all the way up to 14 or 16 teams. At which point UH would almost have to be one of those programs. I have no insider knowledge but assuming they only add 2 (which seems most likely) or even 4 then they'll almost definitely be looking to new markets with schools like BYU, UCF, Cincy, Memphis, maybe even ECU or Col St.

Houston has one really big negative .... TV viewership is near the bottom of the most recent(88 teams) 'College Football TV Viewership Ranking' I could find... which was at #84. This is below several of the MAC schools, such as Toledo/ Buffalo/Bowling Green/and Ohio. Considering the rest of MAC league, they play, couldn't even make the 88 teams ranked for viewership, is quite embarrassing for UH. If another TX school were to get in a B12 scenario... it would be SMU.(Cincinnati at #80)

 

[BrewingFrog]

You've been reading UT propaganda. The Big 12 by-laws provide that the Big 12 will begin to withhold conference distribution payments immediately from UT and OU - they're about $40 million per year, and for 4 years, that'll be about $160 million. Each. ESPN, Fox, the Sugar Bowl, the NCAA (for hoops credits) and others will be paying that money directly to the Big 12 and UT won't see any of that. Ever.

If UT wants out early, it'll be a lot more and they will cut additional checks made payable to the Big 12. (Of course, it's all subject to settlement negotiations, and if otherwise agreed, it could be an agreed amount). UT is under the delusion that the exit fee is $80 million, but they stupidly noticed 4 years early rather than the required 18-months - that is only beginning to dawn on them. Further, they have this delusional assumption that a "discount" is "always" applied - that is not accurate. TCU paid the full Big East exit fee ($5 million) and other schools have done so as well. Discounts apply when there are other mitigating factors (not present here) and the Withdrawing School hasn't blatantly breached a 99-year commitment, a 12-hour notice provision and a requirement that they immediately and firmly reject any offer from another conference.

if UT wants to leave early, the onus is now on them to make us an offer - and it better be well in excess of the $80 million they think they owe.

Until this is resolved, the Big 12 has no interest in pursuing expansion at this time. Moreover, the AAC notice window is 27 months - talk to us again in about 1 year and a half. It would be earlier if and only if UT settles for an agreed amount.

I don't think Bowlsby is playing around. As you point out, the BIGXII has a lot going for it based simply on the contracts binding the parties. ESPN is probably going to get sued, and UT will get dragged right into it with them.

 

[HG73]

Jared gon' get dat money mofo.

 

[flyfishingfrog]

Houston has one really big negative .... TV viewership is near the bottom of the most recent(88 teams) 'College Football TV Viewership Ranking' I could find... which was at #84. This is below several of the MAC schools, such as Toledo/ Buffalo/Bowling Green/and Ohio. Considering the rest of MAC league, they play, couldn't even make the 88 teams ranked for viewership, is quite embarrassing for UH. If another TX school were to get in a B12 scenario... it would be SMU.(Cincinnati at #80)

UH’s biggest problem is Fertitta is bleeding cash left and right at the moment

man he has ruined Del Friscos - worst thing ever that he bought it

 

[asleep003]

I don't think Bowlsby is playing around. As you point out, the BIGXII has a lot going for it based simply on the contracts binding the parties. ESPN is probably going to get sued, and UT will get dragged right into it with them.

Seems like a law suit would be very very hard to win...

 

[HG73]

I don't think Bowlsby is playing around. As you point out, the BIGXII has a lot going for it based simply on the contracts binding the parties. ESPN is probably going to get sued, and UT will get dragged right into it with them.

Is there any doubt that this didn't unfold just exactly like the cease and desist said? And wouldn't there be plenty of witnesses?
The mouse isn't going to do us any favors whether we sue them or not. They are trying to break up (what's left of) the Big12 and move us to the AAC.
That cease and desist letter is exactly what needed to be done. Mouse now knows that we know what they did and can file suit any time. Before we had no leverage and now at least we have some.

 

[Eight]

UH’s biggest problem is Fertitta is bleeding cash left and right at the moment

man he has ruined Del Friscos - worst thing ever that he bought it

will not eat at any of his restaurants

biggest issue to me with uh or smu is the big 12 sans texas still has three texas schools in it and a texas heavy conference repeatedly has drawn lesser interest from the networks

 

[Spike]

Semi pro….. So the SEC?

Way back in the day I tried out for a team called the Tarrant County Raiders. One of my best buds followed up and played a season. Uniforms were the same as the real raiders. Games were at Pennington Field. Was a bunch of bubbas and ex cons and occasionally a name you might recognize as 3rd or 4th string at a D1 school.

A few years I played for the Panthers, the police team. We played one of those teams and were beaten pretty soundly.

 

[Frognosticator]

You've been reading UT propaganda. The Big 12 by-laws provide that the Big 12 will begin to withhold conference distribution payments immediately from UT and OU - they're about $40 million per year, and for 4 years, that'll be about $160 million. Each. ESPN, Fox, the Sugar Bowl, the NCAA (for hoops credits) and others will be paying that money directly to the Big 12 and UT won't see any of that. Ever.

If UT wants out early, it'll be a lot more and they will cut additional checks made payable to the Big 12. (Of course, it's all subject to settlement negotiations, and if otherwise agreed, it could be an agreed amount). UT is under the delusion that the exit fee is $80 million, but they stupidly noticed 4 years early rather than the required 18-months - that is only beginning to dawn on them. Further, they have this delusional assumption that a "discount" is "always" applied - that is not accurate. TCU paid the full Big East exit fee ($5 million) and other schools have done so as well. Discounts apply when there are other mitigating factors (not present here) and the Withdrawing School hasn't blatantly breached a 99-year commitment, a 12-hour notice provision and a requirement that they immediately and firmly reject any offer from another conference.

if UT wants to leave early, the onus is now on them to make us an offer - and it better be well in excess of the $80 million they think they owe.

Until this is resolved, the Big 12 has no interest in pursuing expansion at this time. Moreover, the AAC notice window is 27 months - talk to us again in about 1 year and a half. It would be earlier if and only if UT settles for an agreed amount.

So what you are basically saying is that the aggies really screwed UT over by leaking the info two weeks ago.

 

[Moose Stuff]

You've been reading UT propaganda. The Big 12 by-laws provide that the Big 12 will begin to withhold conference distribution payments immediately from UT and OU - they're about $40 million per year, and for 4 years, that'll be about $160 million. Each. ESPN, Fox, the Sugar Bowl, the NCAA (for hoops credits) and others will be paying that money directly to the Big 12 and UT won't see any of that. Ever.

If UT wants out early, it'll be a lot more and they will cut additional checks made payable to the Big 12. (Of course, it's all subject to settlement negotiations, and if otherwise agreed, it could be an agreed amount). UT is under the delusion that the exit fee is $80 million, but they stupidly noticed 4 years early rather than the required 18-months - that is only beginning to dawn on them. Further, they have this delusional assumption that a "discount" is "always" applied - that is not accurate. TCU paid the full Big East exit fee ($5 million) and other schools have done so as well. Discounts apply when there are other mitigating factors (not present here) and the Withdrawing School hasn't blatantly breached a 99-year commitment, a 12-hour notice provision and a requirement that they immediately and firmly reject any offer from another conference.

if UT wants to leave early, the onus is now on them to make us an offer - and it better be well in excess of the $80 million they think they owe.

Until this is resolved, the Big 12 has no interest in pursuing expansion at this time. Moreover, the AAC notice window is 27 months - talk to us again in about 1 year and a half. It would be earlier if and only if UT settles for an agreed amount.

 

[Jared7]

So what you are basically saying is that the aggies really screwed UT over by leaking the info two weeks ago.

Well, UT's perfidious back-stabbing is entirely the responsibility of UT; not A&M. The Aggies' leak of the ongoing discussions should have resulted in a non-denial denial by UT and actions 2 years later. By stupidly not reading the by-laws and acting early, UT cost themselves about $80 million; which will now be withheld by the Big 12 for the next 4 years. OU too. So that's about a $320 million windfall we'll get 1/8th of. Which means instead of roughly $40 million per year in conference distribution revenues; it'll now be roughly $60 million (for 4 years). Three days ago, UT's mouthpieces and surly were all just SO sure that the exit fee was $80 million (2 years' revenues); now even Pete Tramel is admitting that it is obviously twice that.

Of course, that's all "negotiable." But the money will be withheld and UT would have to sue and prevail in order to see any of it. The new issue is whether UT wants to leave early - they've said no, but everyone is speculating on it anyway. That would mean GOR ramifications. The SEC is currently projected to earn about $65 million in the next 3 years, and then the CBS deal goes away and ESPN has exclusive ownership in year 4. So the speculation today is that "everyone" will want UT to leave after 3 years so that they can earn the then-projected $90 million. If that's the case, and UT approaches us about agreeing to it, that would mean either $65 million or $90 million in year 4 (rather than the anticipated $40 million). Which would mean $120 million in withholdings for 3 years and an additional payment of either of those 2 amounts (whichever is applicable), for a total Buyout Amount of between $185 million and $210 million. TCU would get 1/8th of that.

But that too is all subject to negotiation and UT could demand a "discount." And a super-majority of the disinterested Big 12 directors (6 of the 8 remaining schools) would have to agree to it. UT is looking at going 4 full years without being paid by anyone for any of their media. All due to blatantly breaching a 99-year commitment, a 12-hour notice requirement and an agreement to firmly and immediately reject any offer from another conference. Moreover, the by-laws specifically state that all parties agree that the Buyout amount is reasonable and not a penalty.

Yes, the A&M leak precipitated UT's malicious conduct, but it is UT that will end up paying for it.