Where do we end up...? Poll

[DeuceBoogieNights]

I think it all ends up breaking out something like:

- SEC Super League or whatever it's called-32 teams

- NCAA 1A- Five, 12-team regional leagues similar to older days. TCU, Baylor, SMU, Houston, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Oklahoma State,

Then you would have another of Wake Forrest, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Memphis, UCF, South Florida, East Carolina, etc...

Out west would have Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, UNLV, Utah, etc...

- NCAA 2A- all the others

The universities won't want to dump football completely and have these big stadiums sitting empty so regional matchups will help with traveling fans. The 1A's will find streaming partners. There will still be bowl games but not nearly as many.

ESPN will show these games if the super league isn't playing. Playoff games will replace bowl content so they won't need as many.

It will all fall under the NCAA umbrella so the sec super league and the NCAA can make money from the basketball tournament, but in football they will consider the super league separate basically. Ncaa still wants the cash from basketball, and they need the larger schools for that, in exchange, the super league can govern itself for football.

 

[flyfishingfrog]

Laughing at those who said the big 12 did not need to expand a few years back.

If we had added Notre Dame and USC back then - the only thing that would have changed is we would have 4 teams leaving

again this isn’t about conference affiliation- it is about getting the top teams together- they could call the new group whatever (SEC, NFL minors, fantasyland) and it would have the same goal

 

[Eight]

I think it ends up breaking out something like:

- SEC Super League or whatever it's called-32 teams

- NCAA 1A- Five, 12-team regional leagues similar to older days. Ours would be something like TCU, Baylor, SMU, Houston, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Oklahoma State,

Then you would have another of Wake Forrest, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Memphis, UCF, South Florida, East Carolina, etc...

Out west would have Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, UNLV, Utah, etc...

- NCAA 2A- all the others

The universities won't want to dump football completely and have these big stadiums sitting empty so regional matchups will help with traveling fans. The 1A's will find streaming partners. There will still be bowl games but not nearly as many.

ESPN will show these games if the super league isn't playing. Playoff games will replace bowl content so they won't need as many.

have no interest in watching that group in person or on television and doubt many in the state would as well.

can't imagine trying to sell suites and boxes to watch rice, utep, utsa, and tulsa come to town

 

[Wexahu]

Maybe, but I will still watch and root for the frogs, That said, if TCU goes back to a conference slate of Tulane, ECU, etc., I will think long and hard about whether to renew season tickets. If the Big 12 poaches the 4-6 best teams from MWC/AAC I would renew. If TCU ends up in a conference with a bunch of PAC-12 teams, I would renew. AAC or MWC? I am leaning toward not renewing, unless there is a drastic change in ticket prices.

The effect won't be seen immediately, it'll take a few years maybe to sink in.

Wait until the power teams start poaching the lessers on a much more regular basis, that's when it will probably really hit home. Every player can transfer once without sitting out a year. LOLOLOLOL!!! Good luck to the poor coaches in the bottom 2/3 of college football trying to build teams/programs. With the scholarship limit, the former transfer rules, and no NIL $, the have nots had a big uphill battle to stay competitive. But now? No freaking chance.

I'll still watch for awhile but with far less enthusiasm. More out of habit.

 

[Wexahu]

If we had added Notre Dame and USC back then - the only thing that would have changed is we would have 4 teams leaving

again this isn’t about conference affiliation- it is about getting the top teams together- they could call the new group whatever (SEC, NFL minors, fantasyland) and it would have the same goal

The SEC, along with ESPN, is basically stepping in for the NCAA and taking over the top division of college football.

Greg Sankey might as well be Roger Goodell.

 

[DeuceBoogieNights]

have no interest in watching that group in person or on television and doubt many in the state would as well.

can't imagine trying to sell suites and boxes to watch rice, utep, utsa, and tulsa come to town

My mindset is that we aren't going to land in a P5 and even if we do, it won't last long. Does TCU want to dump football and let a new stadium sit empty or try to generate some kind of revenue? It won't draw as many fans so to save money, travel will need to be cut down to regional opponents. Then you will need to do minor league baseball type promotions to draw in others. In my vision, the way we think of college football now, is dead. It will be more like a mixture of European soccer and minor league baseball.

 

[Wexahu]

I've thought about this possibility. The PAC-12 has to assume this will happen sometime. Do they wait for it to happen and adjust at that point by adding MWC schools or preemptively do something with the Big 12 leftovers now?

You might as well assume the Pac 12 and Big 12 don't exist anymore. They exist in name only, or very soon will. The ACC isn't far behind. What kind of conference is the ACC without Clemson and Florida State? Because I can guarantee you Clemson isn't going to just sit around and accept being in the ACC while all the other big dogs are consolidating.

 

[BrewingFrog]

This is simply the culmination of years of tearing at traditions and loyalty in the name of money. The New Sociopaths, who have no regard for the traditions and institutions that have made something worth admiring, who merely wish to loot and pillage what they can while they can and could not care less when they leave a broken, bloody carcass behind and move on to the next target of their avarice. It has always been easier to destroy than create, and there's good money to be had in ruination.

I can remember a fine morning in 2007. I took Mrs. Brewingfrog to Sholtz Biergarden before the Frog game there just to show her what it was like. A genuine old-school beer joint just hopping before a big game. We got a round bought for us, talked to a lot of folks, and did some reminiscing about how we all missed the old SWC. Greed tore that apart, way back in the late 80s, and while there was a short respite, the money began to flow and all the rules began to bend. On that morning, 14 years ago, it seemed like there was some optimism, in regarding a fondly remembered past, that such a fair time may come again. But, as always, greed trumps all, and loyalty, nostalgia and tradition don't stand a chance against it.

We're all pulling at our hair, wondering what will happen, where we'll go. The sad, overarching fact is, we don't really have a say anymore. Whether or not there is a merger with the PAC has nothing to do with the logic of travel, or regional rivalries, but simply who will pay to broadcast the games based on what names are included in the package. That's it. ESPN stole a march on everybody with this SEC gimmick. The resulting chaos is all to their benefit, as people tend to make lousy deals when stressed.

They have taken a beautiful thing, and choked the life out of it. Damn them all to hell.

 

[Eight]

My mindset is that we aren't going to land in a P5 and even if we do, it won't last long. Does TCU want to dump football and let a new stadium sit empty or try to generate some kind of revenue? It won't draw as many fans so to save money, travel will need to be cut down to regional opponents. Then you will need to do minor league baseball type promotions to draw in others. In my vision, the way we think of college football now, is dead. It will be more like a mixture of European soccer and minor league baseball.

the primary source of revenue has to be from whatever tv contract the new conference can land because if tcu is highly dependent on ticket sales they are in the word of turkish "proper scheissed"

anyone want to guess how many of those 30,000 season tickets that were recently bought were by texas alums or ticket brokers for the resale market. what do you think happens to those when texas leaves and you bring rice to ft worth? utep to ft worth? utsa etc....

tv is not going to pay for a team with 8 small brands from the state of texas. hell, acu and sam just joined the wac/acsun for broader markets. please tell me tcu has more appeal and options than acu or sam.

 

[BrewingFrog]

tv is not going to pay for a team with 8 small brands from the state of texas. hell, acu and sam just joined the wac/acsun for broader markets. please tell me tcu has more appeal and options than acu or sam.

Oh, they'll pay. It just won't be very much. They always need content, and Wednesday is such a good night for football...

 

[JugbandFrog]

Say for some reason we go to Pac 12, and Baylor goes to ACC or AAC. Who do we keep in the schedule? Baylor or SMU?

 

[DeuceBoogieNights]

Oh, they'll pay. It just won't be very much. They always need content, and Wednesday is such a good night for football...

It will be a mix of espn, fox and streaming partners but yeah, it will be way less money.

 

[Eight]

Say for some reason we go to Pac 12, and Baylor goes to ACC or AAC. Who do we keep in the schedule? Baylor or SMU?

neither

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

You might as well assume the Pac 12 and Big 12 don't exist anymore. They exist in name only, or very soon will. The ACC isn't far behind. What kind of conference is the ACC without Clemson and Florida State? Because I can guarantee you Clemson isn't going to just sit around and accept being in the ACC while all the other big dogs are consolidating.

I agree that consolidation of the premier brands is where it is heading, but I don't think the Big 12 and PAC-12 will cease to exist. Odds are both leagues backfilling with lesser brands. Or possibly merging. The Big 12 is more at risk right now folding if enough schools find P5 homes, but as long as the minimum number of schools are left, it will back fill with AAC schools and still be alive. That is what has happened in prior conference realignments.

 

[JogginFrog]

Which is why there won’t be 4 16 team super conferences

The top SEC schools have been told by the networks the schools inside and outside the conference that they “are willing to pay for” and that the others add no additional value to the package

so basically The top 20-25 schools would get a tv deal worth as much (if not actually more) than the top 64 teams

and from my understanding the schools in that list have started talking to each on how to make it happen for the next round of contracts - with the UT and OU move being the first chess piece to fall

Have been thinking about this since flyfishing posted it. The question has always been, "What keeps the big-money schools sharing their TV money with anyone else?" The answer is, "You have to have competition to get the eyeballs and legitimize championships."

So, the follow-up question in a world of survival-of-the-richest/fittest is, "What's the smallest viable number of teams that creates a legitimate competitive set?" It is in the big-money schools' interest to lower that number as far as it will go. So, the idea that it will be 64 because that makes a nice bracket doesn't square with reality. Because 48 makes a nice bracket, and 32 makes a nice bracket. The smallest legitimate bracket, the biggest possible revenue.

The big schools are mulling the legitimacy threshold. But business is not about revenue but profit, and smaller projects that exceed a threshold ROI stay in the portfolio.

College sports has never been about ROI, just revenue. Conferences traditionally divide revenues equally among member teams, leaving the biggest money-makers to subsidize the others.

I think that's the model that has to change. Notice how fast the Big 12 moved this weekend to create an alternative for Texas and OU that acknowledged the reality? It's probably too late to save the Big 12 as we know it...but maybe not too late to save the overall landscape of college sports.

Eventually, a structure should be created to deliver proportional payments based on profitability for schools that divide revenues proportionately over a threshold for base expense of providing adequate facilities and event operations. Schools that exceed the threshold (or a minimum ROI over it) get to play because they contribute to legitimacy.

I think TCU gets to play in such a world. It has the infrastructure and scale to do so. But it won't get to play in a world where the largest 24 schools create their own sandbox. The path to avoid that is to advocate for a structure with proportional payments, and pushing hard to de-legitimize anything less than that. There are plenty of schools to band together with toward such a strategy--every school outside the largest 25, regardless of current conference affiliation.

TCU should work toward creating a lobby of schools outside of the largest 30, regardless of current affiliation, that carry risk of getting left on the side of the road, to work against the legitimacy of a structure that excludes programs that operate profitably above a threshold. Offer a solution, not just a case for non-exclusion.

 

[Eight]

Have been thinking about this since flyfishing posted it. The question has always been, "What keeps the big-money schools sharing their TV money with anyone else?" The answer is, "You have to have competition to get the eyeballs and legitimize championships."

So, the follow-up question in a world of survival-of-the-richest/fittest is, "What's the smallest viable number of teams that creates a legitimate competitive set?" It is in the big-money schools' interest to lower that number as far as it will go. So, the idea that it will be 64 because that makes a nice bracket doesn't square with reality. Because 48 makes a nice bracket, and 32 makes a nice bracket. The smallest legitimate bracket, the biggest possible revenue.

The big schools are mulling the legitimacy threshold. But business is not about revenue but profit, and smaller projects that exceed a threshold ROI stay in the portfolio.

College sports has never been about ROI, just revenue. Conferences traditionally divide revenues equally among member teams, leaving the biggest money-makers to subsidize the others.

I think that's the model that has to change. Notice how fast the Big 12 moved this weekend to create an alternative for Texas and OU that acknowledged the reality? It's probably too late to save the Big 12 as we know it...but maybe not too late to save the overall landscape of college sports.

Eventually, a structure should be created to deliver proportional payments based on profitability for schools that divide revenues proportionately over a threshold for base expense of providing adequate facilities and event operations. Schools that exceed the threshold (or a minimum ROI over it) get to play because they contribute to legitimacy.

I think TCU gets to play in such a world. It has the infrastructure and scale to do so. But it won't get to play in a world where the largest 24 schools create their own sandbox. The path to avoid that is to advocate for a structure with proportional payments, and pushing hard to de-legitimize anything less than that. There are plenty of schools to band together with toward such a strategy--every school outside the largest 25, regardless of current conference affiliation.

TCU should work toward creating a lobby of schools outside of the largest 30, regardless of current affiliation, that carry risk of getting left on the side of the road, to work against the legitimacy of a structure that excludes programs that operate profitably above a threshold. Offer a solution, not just a case for non-exclusion.

like where you are going in your thoughts, biggest challenge i see is control which is what i will find interesting when the culling process begins for the power conferences

someone will end up running this new group so who? if you are say THE ohio state do you truly trust sankey will act in the best interest of all members of the new group or favor the surviving sec schools? dude had no calms not only going behind bowlsby, but more importantly atm.

if you are bama who is used to getting your way do you trust someone from the big 10?

think for the remaining schools there needs to be common leadership, but does that come from the presidents or the athletic departments. talking to a b-i-l who is a udub alum and was one of the huskie hunters back in the day they issue in seattle is the academics don't want athletics to overshadow the "academic" mission of the school.

 

[The Artist Formerly Known as PhormerPhrog]

Laughing at those who said the big 12 did not need to expand a few years back.

CDC...he knew what was up.

 

[Wexahu]

I agree that consolidation of the premier brands is where it is heading, but I don't think the Big 12 and PAC-12 will cease to exist. Odds are both leagues backfilling with lesser brands. Or possibly merging. The Big 12 is more at risk right now folding if enough schools find P5 homes, but as long as the minimum number of schools are left, it will back fill with AAC schools and still be alive. That is what has happened in prior conference realignments.

The point is it doesn't matter if it is still alive or not without UT or OU. There's no real need to try and "keep it alive" without those two, they might as well just let it die and start over with some other group of schools. It's irrelevant whether it's the Big 12 or the Midwest 14, it'll be a second rate conference that is given little respect.

 

[Paul in uhh]

Laughing at those who said the big 12 did not need to expand a few years back.

Fairly confident it was UT and OU intentionally driving that opinion

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

The point is it doesn't matter if it is still alive or not without UT or OU. There's no real need to try and "keep it alive" without those two, they might as well just let it die and start over with some other group of schools. It's irrelevant whether it's the Big 12 or the Midwest 14, it'll be a second rate conference that is given little respect.

Agree with it heading toward Big10/SEC superconferences, but will still matter the composition of the second rate conferences. The Big 12 is better off staying alive and backfilling than disbanding and starting over. To start with, disbanding will mean it will lose its NCAA b-ball units and the UT/OU buy outs.