Long post/update here, buckle up:
I keep reading that Big 12 administrators are “shocked” at this outcome and were totally taken off guard… Of course, this is not true and only an opportunity to try and save face.
With the benefit of hindsight, one could argue this has been predictable for quite a while.
For example, one could look back to the founding of the Big 12 minus two and the opportunity the conference had to not only add West Virginia but also add Cincinnati and Louisville which were the two best options to get back to 12 at the time. Was this a perfect plan? No, but it was better than where we ended up and would’ve resulted in a more stable conference and who knows how the last decade would’ve played out. Which two schools were most adamantly against this path? Texas and OU. And it wasn’t for money reasons, the pro rata clause in our TV contract assured that.
When expansion came up again in the past five years, there was almost unanimity around moving forward with several options that were amongst those names you’ve heard over the years. Texas and OU were most against, even though we had a pro rata clause in our television contract that would’ve meant revenue would climb almost equivalently and Texas/OU would not have been harmed. Ultimately, Texas and Oklahoma preferred to negotiate with ESPN and have the pro rata clause removed from our contract in exchange for cash. They got their wish and the Big 12 got paid north of $30 million each for three big 12 championship games in football when those were added back a few years ago, a ridiculous fee that we forced ESPN into. The rest of the conference was super frustrated when this happened, because they felt like this was their moment to cement the conferences stability and get the TV networks to play along. This was the first big sign that things were not heading in the right direction, hindsight or not.
Most recently (when this all became incredibly obvious to anyone paying attention) when the league went to negotiate and find a TV partner for its remaining three football championship games, ESPN and Fox did not want to play along at first... They did not find the same value in those games that the league did(we asked for $20mm each), but they we’re willing to consider significant rights fee increases overall if the league agreed to a new television contract, similar to the ACC’s new deal. The rates offered at the time from ESPN and Fox were actually quite strong and better than the most recent negotiations. But none of this mattered because Texas and Oklahoma made clear at the time they were not interested in extending their rights beyond 2025, and used the excuse that the changing digital environment meant that we might be leaving money on the table. Fox bowed out and we were down to one major negotiating partner.
To everyone watching, including those of us in the television industry, this was a terrible decision as the cable industry was melting down and there were only gonna be a few spots left should things continue that way, but that same cable industry is still the only place that can reasonably offer the Big 12 conference the kind of money that it would want along with the exposure and distribution that it needs. Signing up with Amazon sounds brilliant, until you realize millions less will watch your product as a result, which has a profound effect on recruiting.
I distinctly remember when the Big 12 added ESPN for the final three championship games along with the Big 12 conference network on ESPN+ that there was a significant feeling around TCU and the league that this could be the beginning of the end for the conference. We got such a small amount of money for those championship games, something around $5 million per game compared to the $20 million we had wanted, which meant that we were heading in the wrong direction. Optimism won out, but as we now know that was misguided.
Of course, the most recent effort to extend our rights led to where we are today, and the story has now been well told. Just don’t let anybody convince you this was at all surprising or unpredictable, those in the room and the industry could tell this wasn’t likely to end well given the stakes. On one hand, you can’t be too mad given how much money is at stake for Texas, OU and others, we would have said yes if invited to the SEC… but that doesn’t make this feel any better since we weren’t.
I don’t have a good feeling yet for where this is headed… the dates to watch are June 2022, June 2023, and June 2025. UT and OU would love for this to be their last year, and the league would love to hold on until June 2025 when our current deals end. For several contractual reasons, June 2023 might be the right compromise with $50-100 million being paid by TX/OU to get out. The conference could still survive intact+a few new members, believe it or not, albeit a shell of its former self. That might be the better option vs a PAC 12 exodus, but it only works if we stay together… losing WVU or KU would be that final nail for sure. Lots of conversations and analysis happening, and the TV networks play a huge role… again, things are going to move both fast and slow over the next 1-3-6-12 months.
