• The KillerFrogs

Has anyone seen my specialty plates?

Gary's Shirtless Revenge

Gary's Shirtless Revenge

Full Member
Gary's Shirtless Revenge said:
Going to hide this in here so it doesn’t become a bigger thing, yet…

The Big 12 might be in a bit of “trouble” regarding its upcoming TV contract negotiations. As I and others had mentioned back several years ago when the Big 12 sold its Tier 3 rights to ESPN (sans OU and Texas), the next step was to hopefully spin that into an early renewal with ESPN, likely eliminating Fox as a partner.

Well, the Big 12 tried to do that, but the response we got was frosty to say the least. The media reports out there on this story effectively just say “it’s too soon” but I can tell you the analysis and direct communication highlighted in the report BHV presented to the Big 12 was a little more concerning.

Essentially, two things were found out:

1) There is real concern that the Big 12 isn’t going to be able to get the premium it wants on its content in a new deal because, in part, the NFL and SEC are vacuuming up so much. ESPN has gone all in on the SEC and ACC, will likely give the full BIG package to Fox in a few years, but it appears it may not be willing to pay top dollar to complete its slate of CFB content. Fox, similarly, has signed several very large deals and is likely to go all in on the BIG, not to mention Fox isn’t the ideal partner for the Big 12 due to its total lack of digital strategy in sports.

2) The new CFP is going to be incredibly expensive, and ESPN has massive reasons to preserve its monopoly over it… this expansion has been known to be a likelihood for years, and ESPN is likely to play ball… again, with cable subscribers falling rapidly, there is less and less money to go around.

So at the end of the day, what will happen to the Big 12? Well, BHVs analysis indicated that if the Big 12 actually went and completed a 5-10 year extension today, they’d likely only get a slight premium over their present rates and they’d see more and more content pushed to ESPN+, which the conference can tolerate but only to a certain degree. Fox is unlikely to participate, if the deal was forced today.

What will things look like in 3 years when negotiations pick up again? That’s really hard to say. It will be the Big 12 vs the PAC in many ways, with only so many slots and $$$ to go around. The Big 12 is in a better position BECAUSE it’s smaller, has two crown jewel members (OU+Texas), and has good relationships with both Fox and ESPN, plus no existing network hanging around our knecks (LHN aside). It could work out OK, but if you put on Texas’ or OU’s shoes, you’d have to think they are imagining a world where maybe it’s time to join the big dogs in the SEC or BIG… financially, it might be a $20 million decision, annually, in 2030… that’s hard to ignore.

Which means, if you want to keep the Big 12 together, we are potentially going to have to move towards more of a “revenue balancing” model versus our current “equal sharing” model. This isn’t perfect either, but for members like TCU, Baylor, K St, etc. it’s the difference between big games and good money vs. potential relegation to the AAC and mediocre funds at best.

Much, much more to come.
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Ahem....

raw
 
tcudoc

tcudoc

Full Member
I am in the Dominican Republic at a resort and saw a guy yesterday with the exact same TCU hat I was wearing and he said Go Frogs! Was it one of you guys?
 
The Frog to be Named Later

The Frog to be Named Later

Active Member
froginmn said:
I was driving in to work this morning and saw a guy (?) with a TCU mom window sticker.

He saw my TCU specialty plates and thought it was cool. Not a ton of TCU folks up here.
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I'm gonna guess it was his wife's minivan. But one can't assume anything these days

Also, so it was you that got Billuos plates? Mystery solved admins please close this thread.
 

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