Playoff Expansion seems inevitable, my money was not on 12 teams

[This Ain't Chopped Liver]

Maybe college football was better without a playoff, before 1998. Fans, players and coaches did not feel like losers of something grander. There was an AP poll but we knew that was NOT decided on the field, rather just a tally of opinion that you could choose to debate if so inclined, but it was not the "end all". The game was football and its regional rivalries enjoyed with fall weather, and maybe a beer and brat. A conference championship goal was enough but if not in the cards that year then a win or two over a top regional rival. Celebratory bowl games in a season of celebration followed. College football was unique.

A bad idea in 1998, to let a computer decide who were the two best teams to play one game and crown a “definitive” National Champion. Then throw in conference realignment. These changed what was a regional, quaint, fun activity; even relaxing - a few hours to live in the moment of good fall weather football as a break from the real priority of college study or work.

A quaint piece of Americana slipped away because human nature leans to the negative while sometimes being shortsightedly greedy. A regular season of regional rivalry punctuated with celebratory bowls was not enough, so now a 12 team tournament, and then maybe 16. Jeepers, no longer unique, but similar to the NFL where it is all about the playoffs and one team basks in glory. Good luck chasing that in your four year football career, or as a fan, in your lifetime - it’s chasing fool’s gold while diminishing a conference title and that celebratory bowl game for the players. Human nature, TV, its money, and conference realignment hijacked a regional sport, and our perception. I have nostalgia.

Note: I think eight would be the best number. Twelve creates byes for 1-4 that are preparation and endurance advantages (mental and physical) over legit contenders seeded at five, six and maybe seven. Thus still left with grumbling about who was left out of the top four, and rightfully so, haha, it’s human nature!

 

[CountryFrog]

Got you..So Jared’s statement that TCU essentially had no chance at the 4 team playoff is incorrect. What’s true is that most people just thought there was a double standard in regard to how margin of error has been applied to non BlueBloods vs the BBs. What people seem to believe is that 12 team playoff is better because it allows imperfect teams a chance to play more high stakes football. Conference championship games were already serving as the first round of a 12 team playoffs but nobody likes that because we didn’t use the playoff word. At the end of the day people should admit they just really want more high stakes football. I don’t think anyone really believes that 2-3 loss football team who’s recruited in the 30-50 range is really capable of winning 4 straight games against more talented teams. People just want access that what this is about. It’s not really about trying to crown the best football team.

Also nobody should be foolish enough to believe the double standard is going to go away because more teams are involved.
There will be plenty of moaning and complaining with those at large bids

Yes. We want to see more high stakes football. Of course that's what we want. You seem to be insinuating somehow that's a bad thing? Isn't that what we all love about sports? Seeing how teams/players/coaches perform in these high stakes situations? How many multitudes of people have criticized players like Dan Marino because they "couldn't win the big one" while Tom Brady is almost universally considered the GOAT because no-one has ever been better at winning the big one?

It also just so happens that this is great for TCU because this removes some of the bias and subjectivity that has worked against us so often in the past.

And I have no interest whatsoever in recruiting rankings being even the slightest consideration in anything having to do with championships. The fact that you even bring that up in any argument for playoff structure is ridiculous.

 

[Jared7]

Got you..So Jared’s statement that TCU essentially had no chance at the 4 team playoff is incorrect. What’s true is that most people just thought there was a double standard in regard to how margin of error has been applied to non BlueBloods vs the BBs. What people seem to believe is that 12 team playoff is better because it allows imperfect teams a chance to play more high stakes football. Conference championship games were already serving as the first round of a 12 team playoffs but nobody likes that because we didn’t use the playoff word. At the end of the day people should admit they just really want more high stakes football. I don’t think anyone really believes that 2-3 loss football team who’s recruited in the 30-50 range is really capable of winning 4 straight games against more talented teams. People just want access that what this is about. It’s not really about trying to crown the best football team.

Also nobody should be foolish enough to believe the double standard is going to go away because more teams are involved.
There will be plenty of moaning and complaining with those at large bids

No, unfortunately, TCU has a very slim chance of making a 4-team CFP. I certainly agree with Todd that an undefeated TCU Big 12 champ would qualify, but the problem is that that is very unlikely. It's never happened in 9 seasons, which puts the historical likelihood at 0%. But 9 seasons is a small sample size and it is a possibility, so if you look at TCU's entire 125-year history, we've finished with an undefeated system twice (1938; 2010). So, by that measure, it's happened about 1.6% of the time. But that's for the entire season - TCU also finished undefeated in the regular season in 1929 (with ties), 1932 (with ties) and 2009. So by that measure, the likelihood is about 4%. And there's also the chance that TCU could finish with 1 loss and still make the Top 4. Finishing with only 1 loss in the regular season has happened a lot more frequently (1897; 1912; 1920; 1925; 1926; 1933; 1935; 2000; 2003; 2005), but only in 1935 did that result in TCU finishing in the Top 4. So add that in and the likelihood increases to 5%. Depending on the measure, therefore, history shows that the likelihood of TCU making a 4-team CFP ranges somewhere between 0% and 5%. Which is a very slim chance. Which is amplified by what we saw in 2014 and the favoritism shown to other schools not named TCU. You appear to be confusing the 100% likelihood of making the 4-team CFP as an undefeated Big 12 champ with the likelihood of being an undefeated Big 12 champ in the first place. At best, there's about a 5% chance of that.

I agree with CountryFrog that your inclusion of recruiting rankings renders the remainder of your comment into gibberish-laden blather. There is no reason whatsoever to include often-bogus recruiting rankings in any conversation about the playoffs. As most Frog fans know, Coach P's m.o. is to coach up players, often switch their positions and develop talent over and above what someone thought of their "talent" level as a HS junior.

 

[Froggish]

Yes. We want to see more high stakes football. Of course that's what we want. You seem to be insinuating somehow that's a bad thing? Isn't that what we all love about sports? Seeing how teams/players/coaches perform in these high stakes situations? How many multitudes of people have criticized players like Dan Marino because they "couldn't win the big one" while Tom Brady is almost universally considered the GOAT because no-one has ever been better at winning the big one?

It also just so happens that this is great for TCU because this removes some of the bias and subjectivity that has worked against us so often in the past.

And I have no interest whatsoever in recruiting rankings being even the slightest consideration in anything having to do with championships. The fact that you even bring that up in any argument for playoff structure is ridiculous.

Where did I say recruiting should have anything to do with the structure of the playoff? No where. I simply said it will result in matchups between teams that have huge talent gaps

 

[Froggish]

No, unfortunately, TCU has a very slim chance of making a 4-team CFP. I certainly agree with Todd that an undefeated TCU Big 12 champ would qualify, but the problem is that that is very unlikely. It's never happened in 9 seasons, which puts the historical likelihood at 0%. But 9 seasons is a small sample size and it is a possibility, so if you look at TCU's entire 125-year history, we've finished with an undefeated system twice (1938; 2010). So, by that measure, it's happened about 1.6% of the time. But that's for the entire season - TCU also finished undefeated in the regular season in 1929 (with ties), 1932 (with ties) and 2009. So by that measure, the likelihood is about 4%. And there's also the chance that TCU could finish with 1 loss and still make the Top 4. Finishing with only 1 loss in the regular season has happened a lot more frequently (1897; 1912; 1920; 1925; 1926; 1933; 1935; 2000; 2003; 2005), but only in 1935 did that result in TCU finishing in the Top 4. So add that in and the likelihood increases to 5%. Depending on the measure, therefore, history shows that the likelihood of TCU making a 4-team CFP ranges somewhere between 0% and 5%. Which is a very slim chance. Which is amplified by what we saw in 2014 and the favoritism shown to other schools not named TCU. You appear to be confusing the 100% likelihood of making the 4-team CFP as an undefeated Big 12 champ with the likelihood of being an undefeated Big 12 champ in the first place. At best, there's about a 5% chance of that.

I agree with CountryFrog that your inclusion of recruiting rankings renders the remainder of your comment into gibberish-laden blather. There is no reason whatsoever to include often-bogus recruiting rankings in any conversation about the playoffs. As most Frog fans know, Coach P's m.o. is to coach up players, often switch their positions and develop talent over and above what someone thought of their "talent" level as a HS junior.

Your reading comprehension needs work. At no point did I state recruiting rankings are going to or should play any roll in the playoff structure. Again I simply made the point that the results of this playoff format will simply mean matchups between teams with large talent disparities. Of course nobody will care while watching these games because the point of playoff expansion is more about inclusion rather than finding the best team in college football.

I believe we are talking about two different things. I’m happy we get a chance to play more football. More high stakes football is good for the sport and it’s fun for TCU and our fanbase. I made the point days ago that playoff expansion would not have much if any impact on the Frogs pecking order in college football and I still believe that. It doesn’t mean it won’t be fun for our fanbase or occasionally even include us.

 

[CountryFrog]

Where did I say recruiting should have anything to do with the structure of the playoff? No where. I simply said it will result in matchups between teams that have huge talent gaps

Well 2 people in a row thought that you were saying teams with lower recruiting rankings shouldn't be in the playoff. So maybe our reading comprehension is bad or you didn't make your point clear enough.

And since I've never made a mistake in my life then I'll just assume it's all your fault.

 

[Froggish]

Well 2 people in a row thought that you were saying teams with lower recruiting rankings shouldn't be in the playoff. So maybe our reading comprehension is bad or you didn't make your point clear enough.

And since I've never made a mistake in my life then I'll just assume it's all your fault.

Fair

 

[HG73]

If this happens. One of those Arizona schools is going to jump ship to the B12. It’s a lock.

Expand please.

 

[HG73]

If this happens. One of those Arizona schools is going to jump ship to the B12. It’s a lock.

Which one? Why not both? How is it a lock?

 

[Hemingway]

Which one? Why not both? How is it a lock?

It could be both the pac has been falling apart for years. I understand that they recruit California pretty heavily though.

 

[HG73]

I keep waiting for the PAC to do something really stupid, but then I remember that Larry Scott is no longer commissioner.

 

[ECM]

If this happens. One of those Arizona schools is going to jump ship to the B12. It’s a lock.

Personally I think this will put a damper on conference realignment talk for awhile. The two biggest harbingers of any new shifts are Texas and OU, and their path to the CFP is better in the presently-constructed Big 12 than anywhere else with the new proposed model. The Pac-12, which has been shut out most often recently, should have at least one team in every year now. I doubt the Arizona schools want to leave the Pac-12 and CA schools behind to share a conference with Iowa State and WVU when such a move won’t help their CFP access.

 

[HG73]

Personally I think this will put a damper on conference realignment talk for awhile. The two biggest harbingers of any new shifts are Texas and OU, and their path to the CFP is better in the presently-constructed Big 12 than anywhere else with the new proposed model. The Pac-12, which has been shut out most often recently, should have at least one team in every year now. I doubt the Arizona schools want to leave the Pac-12 and CA schools behind to share a conference with Iowa State and WVU when such a move won’t help their CFP access.

I have one word for you, mo' money.

And the central time zone.

 

[ECM]

I have one word for you, mo' money.

And the central time zone.

How does the central time zone affect ASU and Arizona’s decision making? They draw heavily from the west coast both in recruiting and student admissions. Tying themselves to the Big 12 is an odd fit. Sending your non revenue teams to Ames and Morgantown is not ideal.

And from the Big 12’s perspective, does it make sense financially to split the pie two more ways for two programs that aren’t exactly world beaters in college football? TV markets don’t really matter as much anymore as people continue to cut the cord. In the old setup, it may have made sense for the Big 12 to try and kill off the Pac-12 by raiding the AZ schools, but going forward every P5 will be getting at least one team in the CFP

 

[HG73]

How does the central time zone affect ASU and Arizona’s decision making? They draw heavily from the west coast both in recruiting and student admissions. Tying themselves to the Big 12 is an odd fit. Sending your non revenue teams to Ames and Morgantown is not ideal.

And from the Big 12’s perspective, does it make sense financially to split the pie two more ways for two programs that aren’t exactly world beaters in college football? TV markets don’t really matter as much anymore as people continue to cut the cord. In the old setup, it may have made sense for the Big 12 to try and kill off the Pac-12 by raiding the AZ schools, but going forward every P5 will be getting at least one team in the CFP

The Central time zone helps the Arizonas because they hit a much bigger market much earlier in the day. Instead of playing a 7pm game in California/Oregon/Washington (10pm Eastern time) they're playing in the Central time zone only one hour from the Eastern time zone. More eyes. Mo' TV money. Better recruiting. They can always schedule California teams OOC for recruiting LA/SF.

Now if one (or both) Arizonas, Colorado, or Utah, or any combination of them causes any dilution whatsoever of any Big12 team's share, then it won't happen. That's the ESPN suits' decision. But I'm thinking that the Phoenix, Tucson, Denver and/or SLC markets would improve the Big12's share, especially considering the Big12 has teams in Kansas, Iowa, rural Oklahoma, Waco and Lubbock.

I agree that a 12 team playoff solidifies the conferences, and I have no desire to break up the PAC. I think they will do that on their own. But it would be nice to pick up a P5 team or two in big markets just in case ut gets the wandering eye.

 

[This Ain't Chopped Liver]

Big Ten to 'soften stance' on automatic bids in expanded CFP

The Big Ten had pushed hard for automatic qualifiers for Power 5 champions in an expanded Playoff during contentious winter discussions.

theathletic.com

The SEC commissioner does not want automatic qualifiers; now the Big Ten’s Warren may be leaning that way—

Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren said Wednesday that he will not take a hardline stance on automatic College Football Playoff berths for Power 5 conference champions heading into the next set of CFP expansion meetings. This had been a public sticking point for Warren in the past.

“I’m going to soften my stance on it,” Warren told The Athletic. “I just feel like we have to give some credit for conference regular-season success. Now, whatever that looks like, I don’t know.”

He added that there are “creative ways” to do that that aren’t automatic qualifiers, and that means it’s a solvable issue, not an immovable one.

 

[This Ain't Chopped Liver]

Hopes raised for College Football Playoff expansion agreement as interest in 16-team model grows

Key players finally appear willing to make concessions in hopes of arriving at a mutually agreed upon format

www.cbssports.com

"I do want to look at 16," Warren told CBS Sports at the Big Ten Media Days. "I want to look at all of them. I want to look at everything but four."
….
Support for the 16-team bracket may have hatched while commissioners were in Park City for the annual Collegiate Commissioners Association meeting.

 

[LVH]

I still think the SEC/Big 10 will eventually jump ship from the NCAA and create their own exclusive playoff.

 

[Endless Purple]

Big Ten to 'soften stance' on automatic bids in expanded CFP

The Big Ten had pushed hard for automatic qualifiers for Power 5 champions in an expanded Playoff during contentious winter discussions.

theathletic.com

The SEC commissioner does not want automatic qualifiers; now the Big Ten’s Warren may be leaning that way—

Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren said Wednesday that he will not take a hardline stance on automatic College Football Playoff berths for Power 5 conference champions heading into the next set of CFP expansion meetings. This had been a public sticking point for Warren in the past.

“I’m going to soften my stance on it,” Warren told The Athletic. “I just feel like we have to give some credit for conference regular-season success. Now, whatever that looks like, I don’t know.”

He added that there are “creative ways” to do that that aren’t automatic qualifiers, and that means it’s a solvable issue, not an immovable one.

Isn't a conference championship a defining factor in regular season success?

This is just a way to keep out a Utah or Cincy or TCU in the future.

 

[asleep003]

The best team will be in those Top 8 Ranked schools...