• The KillerFrogs

Big 12 Conference winning chances according to FPI

KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

Active Member
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/4

OU: 38%
UT: 28.4%
OSU: 16.6%
ISU: 13.5%
KSU: 2.5%
WVU: 0.5%
TCU 0.5%

Anyone want to map out the scenario we win the conference? Yes, I know it isn't happening, but might as well have fun with it. Obviously we have to win out to get to 6-3. And no more than one team with less than 3 losses, otherwise we can't make the CCG. We prob want the teams we've beaten to be in the 3 loss team group, since that will help with tie breakers. And prob want any 2 loss or less team in the standings to be one we lost against for the same reason. So we definitely need UT to lose once, and probably only once since we need them for any tie breaker scenario. After that gets pretty complicated pretty fast, but thinking we want OU to beat OSU in two weeks, so that OSU gets to 3 losses with a loss against us.
 
Eight

Eight

Member
KillerFrog InD KitchenSink said:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/4

OU: 38%
UT: 28.4%
OSU: 16.6%
ISU: 13.5%
KSU: 2.5%
WVU: 0.5%
TCU 0.5%

Anyone want to map out the scenario we win the conference? Yes, I know it isn't happening, but might as well have fun with it. Obviously we have to win out to get to 6-3. And no more than one team with less than 3 losses, otherwise we can't make the CCG. We prob want the teams we've beaten to be in the 3 loss team group, since that will help with tie breakers. And prob want any 2 loss or less team in the standings to be one we lost against for the same reason. So we definitely need UT to lose once, and probably only once since we need them for any tie breaker scenario. After that gets pretty complicated pretty fast, but thinking we want OU to beat OSU in two weeks, so that OSU gets to 3 losses with a loss against us.
Click to expand...

why would discussing the improbability of winning the conference after pissing away the kstate game be fun?
 
CountryFrog

CountryFrog

Active Member
TCU wins out. Then both of the 1st and 2nd place finishers are forced to forfeit their spots in the B12 championship game due to massive COVID outbreaks resulting in the 3rd and 4th place finishers taking their spot.

As Pharm will remind me though COVID is now over so this is more of a 0.005% chance than a 0.5% chance.
 
Froggish

Froggish

Active Member
KillerFrog InD KitchenSink said:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/4

OU: 38%
UT: 28.4%
OSU: 16.6%
ISU: 13.5%
KSU: 2.5%
WVU: 0.5%
TCU 0.5%

Anyone want to map out the scenario we win the conference? Yes, I know it isn't happening, but might as well have fun with it. Obviously we have to win out to get to 6-3. And no more than one team with less than 3 losses, otherwise we can't make the CCG. We prob want the teams we've beaten to be in the 3 loss team group, since that will help with tie breakers. And prob want any 2 loss or less team in the standings to be one we lost against for the same reason. So we definitely need UT to lose once, and probably only once since we need them for any tie breaker scenario. After that gets pretty complicated pretty fast, but thinking we want OU to beat OSU in two weeks, so that OSU gets to 3 losses with a loss against us.
Click to expand...

I think an asteroid has to destroy the state of OK
 
HG73

HG73

Active Member
Now they got that guy on video talking about how they bussed a group around to different precincts to vote multiple times because they didn't require a photo ID.
 
E

Endless Purple

Full Member
KillerFrog InD KitchenSink said:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/4

OU: 38%
UT: 28.4%
OSU: 16.6%
ISU: 13.5%
KSU: 2.5%
WVU: 0.5%
TCU 0.5%

Anyone want to map out the scenario we win the conference? Yes, I know it isn't happening, but might as well have fun with it. Obviously we have to win out to get to 6-3. And no more than one team with less than 3 losses, otherwise we can't make the CCG. We prob want the teams we've beaten to be in the 3 loss team group, since that will help with tie breakers. And prob want any 2 loss or less team in the standings to be one we lost against for the same reason. So we definitely need UT to lose once, and probably only once since we need them for any tie breaker scenario. After that gets pretty complicated pretty fast, but thinking we want OU to beat OSU in two weeks, so that OSU gets to 3 losses with a loss against us.
Click to expand...

A few thoughts were mentioned in the thread started by Frognosticator.

ISU needs to win out (8-1)
TCU wins out (6-3)
Texas wins out except ISU (6-3)
OSU beats OU. Loses to TCU nd one of Tech/Baylor upsets (6-3)
OU loses to OSU and WVU (5-4)
Kansas St loses to OSU and UT (5-4)
WVU loses to TCU and ISU (4-5) really the ISU/WVU game doesn't matter in this scenario. WVU wins they are (5-4)
Baylor/Tech, one must upset OU otherwise just lose
Kansas just do what your doing.

This leaves ISU at the top vs a 3 way tie with TCU, OSU, and UT; and TCU would have the head to head with both. So as long as they do the head to head tie breaker and not poll rankings.
 
HG73

HG73

Active Member
Endless Purple said:
A few thoughts were mentioned in the thread started by Frognosticator.

ISU needs to win out (8-1)
TCU wins out (6-3)
Texas wins out except ISU (6-3)
OSU beats OU. Loses to TCU nd one of Tech/Baylor upsets (6-3)
OU loses to OSU and WVU (5-4)
Kansas St loses to OSU and UT (5-4)
WVU loses to TCU and ISU (4-5) really the ISU/WVU game doesn't matter in this scenario. WVU wins they are (5-4)
Baylor/Tech, one must upset OU otherwise just lose
Kansas just do what your doing.

This leaves ISU at the top vs a 3 way tie with TCU, OSU, and UT; and TCU would have the head to head with both. So as long as they do the head to head tie breaker and not poll rankings.
Click to expand...
Could happen, no difference in us, ut, osu, isu, wv, ksu. Ou may be a little better, tech and baylor capable of the upset. We can lose to kansas.
 

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