• The KillerFrogs

Utah just furloughed the entire athletic dept....

cdsfrog

Active Member
I understand the intent and that this isn’t investment advice, but this is an awful take.

the XLE is a crap fund and by being overly concentrated in XOM / CVX it is by definition the opposite of diversified. Energy stock underperformance has been the story of the past decade. There’s also dog-poop oilfield services company in that fund that will certainly be nonexistent in a few years.

TLDR: dont take anything as investment advice here, but not a bad hypothetical idea to stay away from energy stocks; there’s plenty of articles out there on the issues.

Hence the no advice. Ceo for Exxon is horrible. Chevron has already recovered quite a bit from March lows. Post COVID I imagine energy will be ok but perhaps worse off than before this year.

Best of luck regardless
 
Hence the no advice. Ceo for Exxon is horrible. Chevron has already recovered quite a bit from March lows. Post COVID I imagine energy will be ok but perhaps worse off than before this year.

Best of luck regardless
Let this sink in for the Big Oil fans: TSLA's Market Cap is 2.5x EOM and CVX. Big Oil's wave is over.

(This is not investment advice.)
 

ticketfrog123

Active Member
Hence the no advice. Ceo for Exxon is horrible. Chevron has already recovered quite a bit from March lows. Post COVID I imagine energy will be ok but perhaps worse off than before this year.

Best of luck regardless

you missed my point. you are looking at share price "recovering from lows" and you don't actually work in the energy industry. You "imagine energy will be ok" because you aren't aware of the industry dynamics.

Good rule of thumb is don't buy shares of companies or industries you don't actually understand. For most retail investors, that limits them to FAANG and a few other tech/consumer verticals.
 

ticketfrog123

Active Member
You are right... But I don't think there is another state like Utah, where the public school and private school are such rivals. The grads from BYU might have finally got one over on the ol' utes, if the BYU grads are truly on the Higher Ed Board of Utah and blocked funding for the football and athletics program.

BYU still isn't getting into the Big 12. insane if the politics are that way out there.
 

Paul in uhh

Active Member
You are right... But I don't think there is another state like Utah, where the public school and private school are such rivals. The grads from BYU might have finally got one over on the ol' utes, if the BYU grads are truly on the Higher Ed Board of Utah and blocked funding for the football and athletics program.
If true I want NOTHING to do with byu. They are a cancer to everything they get in cahoots with.. at least athletically.
 
Well the petroleum engineers have been painfully wrong for the past 10 years
I am not sure what you are referring to (but will acknowledge PE's are far, far smarter than myself) - plenty of raw material under the ground but the time horizon has sense been lengthened given the rise in AE/RE. The bell curve will follow. Exxon et al. are not at all as stable, reliable as they were fifteen years ago.

The move to AE/RE is real and it is here. (I am biased, notably, given my firm is 98% concentrated in renewables).

(This is not investment advice. Seek your investment advisor for any investment advice.)
 
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cdsfrog

Active Member
you missed my point. you are looking at share price "recovering from lows" and you don't actually work in the energy industry. You "imagine energy will be ok" because you aren't aware of the industry dynamics.

Good rule of thumb is don't buy shares of companies or industries you don't actually understand. For most retail investors, that limits them to FAANG and a few other tech/consumer verticals.

I disagree. Have a nice day
 

ticketfrog123

Active Member
I am not sure what you are referring to (but will acknowledge PE's are far, far smarter than myself) - plenty of raw material under the ground but the time horizon has sense been lengthened given the rise in AE/RE. The bell curve will follow. Exxon et al. are not at all as stable, reliable as they were fifteen years ago.

The move to AE/RE is real and it is here. (I am biased, notably, given my firm is 98% concentrated in renewables).

(This is not investment advice. Seek your investment advisor for any investment advice.)

you work with credits (RECs or RINs on the finance side?) or just in the RE supply chain?
 

BrewingFrog

Was I supposed to type something here?
I am not sure what you are referring to (but will acknowledge PE's are far, far smarter than myself) - plenty of raw material under the ground but the time horizon has sense been lengthened given the rise in AE/RE. The bell curve will follow. Exxon et al. are not at all as stable, reliable as they were fifteen years ago.

The move to AE/RE is real and it is here. (I am biased, notably, given my firm is 98% concentrated in renewables).

(This is not investment advice. Seek your investment advisor for any investment advice.)
Management has gotten much worse at these companies over the last 20-25 years. I don't believe they understand what they do anymore.
 

jack the frog

Full Member
I am not sure what you are referring to (but will acknowledge PE's are far, far smarter than myself) - plenty of raw material under the ground but the time horizon has sense been lengthened given the rise in AE/RE. The bell curve will follow. Exxon et al. are not at all as stable, reliable as they were fifteen years ago.

The move to AE/RE is real and it is here. (I am biased, notably, given my firm is 98% concentrated in renewables).

(This is not investment advice. Seek your investment advisor for any investment advice.)

Dynamics certainly change over time. We sold Indian land grant interests to Humble Oil (now Exxon of course) in 1952 in exchange for stock. Those shares were sold in 2015 after a 63 year hold. Not a single XOM share remains while one of our biggest holdings today is BEP along with another Brookfield entity. The writing is on the wall for big oil. Terrible CEO’s like Rex Tillerson have hastened that decline. I cannot overemphasize how destructive he was.
 

Eight

Member
had coffee this morning during a men's group at church with a friend who runs the woodlands office of an international construction company that had been doing a great deal of work for oil and gas firms

last week he met with his contact at exxon at was told about their "REPACING" schedule for their projects for the end of this year and the first half of next year

the picture isn't good and his contact said the word is to expect 15,000-20,000 exxon employees to be laid off/ offered early retirement in the next few months

that won't cause a ripple among contractors, suppliers, etc.. that will be a scheissing wave and word is dow has shut down production on some of their lines and people are waiting on chevron, bp, and royal dutch

additionally, i left there and went to help direct traffic at a food distribution by houston food bank and an organization a friend oversees that i have mentioned before on the board. first week we did i believe 1,300+ vehicles

today i don 't know the count, but we started at 8:30, i left around 12:20, not only was the flow of cars still strong when i turned out of the parking lot i clocked the line at roughly 7 tenths of a mile still waiting on food. that is a great depression class food line

when i read about someone misstating the report to congress by a factor of ten, the continued miss reporting of the case count, the panic by the press, then the justification that it was done only to protect us i want to say a big scheiss you to those who believe and justify in those actions and i mean a john holmes sized scheiss you

get your ass in your car and start waiting at 5 in the morning for food for your family all because someone missed a damn decimal or tried to act in our best intereste
 
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