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OU game success rate 4th quarter - Bill Connelly tweet

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PO Frog

Active Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
Because a larger sample size wouldn’t support your pre-determined conclusion?
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What exactly is being "pre-determined"? I have watched two years of terrible offense. Is there some sort of rule that says I have to watch another couple dozen games before I am allowed to make a determination? When is the "pre-determination" period over so I can start to make a judgment?

The reason the sample size is small is because we don't have any successful plays, limiting the ability to keep possession of the ball, thus acquiring the ability to run more plays and create an even larger sample size. Running 25 plays fewer than the NCAA average this year is not an indictment of the sample size - it's an indictment of the sucky offense.
 
Frog-in-law1995

Frog-in-law1995

Active Member
I get it. The offense isn’t good and you want to blame Sonny. He deserves some of that, sure. Maybe a lot of that. But pointing to two possessions (one of which might well have been a go ahead touchdown had OU not interfered with Reagor) as proof Sonny is bad is silly. Everybody has 3 and outs, particularly inside your own 10 with 100,000 fans screaming at your true freshman QB.
 
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westoverhillbilly

Active Member
I feel certain that Gary will make a change in the off season at OC- probably some sort of a shift.. He knows it has to be done- he's stubborn but he's not stupid..
 
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flyfishingfrog

Active Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
I get it. The offense isn’t good and you want to blame Sonny. He deserves some of that, sure. Maybe a lot of that. But pointing to two possessions (one of which might well have been a go ahead touchdown had OU not interfered with Reagor) as proof Sonny is bad is silly. Everybody has 3 and outs, particularly inside your own 10 with 100,000 fans screaming at your true freshman QB.
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we have had 10 quarters this year that were rated at 10% or below in execution - that is 5 FULL games.

Nothing else needs to be said.
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
“Success Rate” in this model is based on how often you gain a percentage of the yardage needed for a first down on a given play, based on what down it is. 50% on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th. So “success” means a 5 yard pickup on 1st and 10, a 4 yard pickup on 2nd and 5, and a 1 yard gain on 3rd and 1, etc.

We only ran 7 offensive plays in Q4. That’s a LUDICROUSLY small sample size. To suggest that a 5 yard gain on 1st and a 4 yard gain on 2nd (giving us “success” on 2 of 7 plays, or 29%) might’ve “gotten the job done” for us is equally ludicrous.
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Maybe if our offense had some success on those 7 plays in the 4th quarter, there would have been more than 7 plays, giving you your larger sample size, but alas, there was not any success at all, so we were stuck with a tiny sample size.

That’s the very nature of football... if you don’t succeed on offense, you get fewer plays.
 
Frog-in-law1995

Frog-in-law1995

Active Member
Ron Swanson said:
Maybe if our offense had some success on those 7 plays in the 4th quarter, there would have been more than 7 plays, giving you your larger sample size, but alas, there was not any success at all, so we were stuck with a tiny sample size.

That’s the very nature of football... if you don’t succeed on offense, you get fewer plays.
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We could have been “successful” on 58% of those plays and still not had more than 7. The nature of football is such that you shouldn’t indict an offense over a couple of 3 and outs.
 
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flyfishingfrog

Active Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
We could have been “successful” on 58% of those plays and still not had more than 7. The nature of football is such that you shouldn’t indict an offense over a couple of 3 and outs.
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actually I think that is statistically impossible the way the formula works unless you are assuming we also had about 3 turnovers along with a 58% success rate or scored 2 - 3 times....

and if we only had a couple of 3 and outs - I doubt we would be talking about it at all.
 
Frog-in-law1995

Frog-in-law1995

Active Member
flyfishingfrog said:
actually I think that is statistically impossible the way the formula works unless you are assuming we also had about 3 turnovers along with a 58% success rate or scored 2 - 3 times....
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5 yards on 1st and 10 and 4 yards on 2nd and 5 would both be “successful.” Do that on both possessions along with unsuccessful attempts on both 3rd downs and 1 fourth down and you’re successful on 58% without a first down.
 
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flyfishingfrog

Active Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
5 yards on 1st and 10 and 4 yards on 2nd and 5 would both be “successful.” Do that on both possessions along with unsuccessful attempts on both 3rd downs and 1 fourth down and you’re successful on 58% without a first down.
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well there you go - and if we had an OC that had 3rd and 1 twice and couldn't get either one including going for it again on 4th and 1 in the 4th quarter when the game was on the line - then we should fire his butt and get someone who actually has a clue.
 
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Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
We could have been “successful” on 58% of those plays and still not had more than 7. The nature of football is such that you shouldn’t indict an offense over a couple of 3 and outs.
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It’s not like these are seven random plays taken from the middle of the second quarter though. These are the most important offensive plays of the game when everything is on the line. We should have been able to dial up something. You have a chance to beat a top 10 team in primetime in their own house, all you have to do is score a touchdown, you bust out all the stops. We had two chances and didn’t do ship.
 
Frog-in-law1995

Frog-in-law1995

Active Member
Ron Swanson said:
It’s not like these are seven random plays taken from the middle of the second quarter though. These are the most important offensive plays of the game when everything is on the line. We should have been able to dial up something. You have a chance to beat a top 10 team in primetime in their own house, all you have to do is score a touchdown, you bust out all the stops. We had two chances and didn’t do ship.
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Worth noting that but for a bad spot, the best offense in the country went 3 and out on their last drive at home with the chance to put the game away.
 
West Coast Johnny

West Coast Johnny

Full Member
OU tried to gift wrap that game and give it to us. All our offense needed was our D game and we would have won. F-minus. Mostly on the coaching but none of the players made any plays.
 
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PO Frog

Active Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
Worth noting that but for a bad spot, the best offense in the country went 3 and out on their last drive at home with the chance to put the game away.
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Are you arguing just to argue or do you think we have a competent offense that just needs a little seasoning? Please state your opinion so i know what I’m debating.
 
4

4th. down

Active Member
Raw Frog said:
The writing was all over the wall after last year. No changes. This was the year that it was supposed to really take off. Best defense in GP's time. QB play was a bit of a question mark, but we were supposedly loaded elsewhere even though we lost two top tier DEs. Mathis was supposedly perhaps the best DE to ever come through the program. His second year here. What a waste of a year for our team.
I have never been so disappointed in our program, and frankly hold little hope if there are not some big changes with our staff and program direction.
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Ditto, I feel the same as most of us do.

No significant changes and we revert back to our DNA of 50, 40, 30, and 20 years ago. Fighting to finish in the middle of the pack.

GP really likes Cumbie as a person, he might not pull the trigger. Anderson is an example of how he protects the ones he likes personally. Major changes, hard to come by with GP, and he's moved away from the air raid - Rhule showed him how to handle OU so look for more of the stack 3 defense as it's hard to move the length of the field passing against it. Riley knew this when GP put it in so just why not run against a 3 man front which they did.
 

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