• The KillerFrogs

TCU favored by 2.5 against UT

netty2424

Full Member
I talked to a UT buddy when this line came out. He said they are devastated by injuries on defense and are starting walk-ons as a result. I don’t follow UT so I don’t know how true that is.

Still doesn’t make any sense to me. I can’t believe UT isn’t favored by at least mid single digits.
UT buddy text me saying they played a walk on RB at safety last night.
giphy.gif
 

Brog

Full Member
It’s true. Their secondary is gutted and they lost another last night. Max is gonna totally shred them. I bet he throws for at least 40 yards in the first half alone.

Their secondary may be gutted, but they may do pretty well when the opposing team receivers continually drop the ball, and the opposing team QB can't hit squat.
 
We are better than we think we are, at least according to the metrics that Vegas uses to establish lines. At home, been relatively unlucky and relatively healthy. We have decent to good efficiency and non game score stats. This is the kind of team that people not emotionally invested will study and see “upset” potential.
 

Ron Swanson

Full Member
We are better than we think we are, at least according to the metrics that Vegas uses to establish lines. At home, been relatively unlucky and relatively healthy. We have decent to good efficiency and non game score stats. This is the kind of team that people not emotionally invested will study and see “upset” potential.
By most of the metrics we aren’t a bad team. The problem is, we have the opposite of “it”. You know how some teams just have that it factor and they manage to pull victory from the jaws of defeat by coming up with key plays in clutch situations and just finding crazy ways to win? We are the exact opposite of that. Instead of overachieving and doing all the little things to win games, we go to entirely the other direction.

My guess is we will continue to win the total yardage battle against most of our future opponents, just like we have against all of the teams so far (outside of ISU), but we will find ways to lose the games anyway. We will have special teams miscues, we will have turnovers in critical situations, we will run the ball down our opponents throats until the red zone where our drives will stall, our receivers will drop key 3rd down conversions, etc...

EDITED to say that I agree with you, and that’s what is going to keep giving me hope this year (although I doubt my hopes are answered how I want them to be).
 
Last edited:
By most of the metrics we aren’t a bad team. The problem is, we have the opposite of “it”. You know how some teams just have that it factor and they manage to pull victory from the jaws of defeat by coming up with key plays in clutch situations and just finding crazy ways to win? We are the exact opposite of that. Instead of overachieving and doing all the little things to win games, we go to entirely the other direction.

My guess is we will continue to win the total yardage battle against most of our future opponents, just like we have against all of the teams so far (outside of ISU), but we will find ways to lose the games anyway. We will have special teams miscues, we will have turnovers in critical situations, we will run the ball down our opponents throats until the red zone where our drives will stall, our receivers will drop key 3rd down conversions, etc...

EDITED to say that I agree with you, and that’s what is going to keep giving me hope this year (although I doubt my hopes are answered how I want them to be).

Don’t disagree with the pessimism (I share it, particularly right after a frustrating loss), but I will say at the end of the year, if you look at slow starting teams in the top 40-50 range with solid underlying stats- they are the ones that surprise with upsets or multi game winning streaks when you least suspect it. Not saying that will happen with us- the schedule is tough- but we aren’t as far off as we think we are. I think the respect of the Vegas line shows that.
 

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Don’t disagree with the pessimism (I share it, particularly right after a frustrating loss), but I will say at the end of the year, if you look at slow starting teams in the top 40-50 range with solid underlying stats- they are the ones that surprise with upsets or multi game winning streaks when you least suspect it. Not saying that will happen with us- the schedule is tough- but we aren’t as far off as we think we are. I think the respect of the Vegas line shows that.
I understand, and I don’t disagree. I have no idea what’s gonna happen but I’ll be surprised if we don’t win a couple more.
 

CountryFrog

Active Member
We are better than we think we are, at least according to the metrics that Vegas uses to establish lines. At home, been relatively unlucky and relatively healthy. We have decent to good efficiency and non game score stats. This is the kind of team that people not emotionally invested will study and see “upset” potential.
As someone who doesn't gamble and has never bet a penny on a single sporting event in my life, the fact that we're good in "non game score stats" seems incredibly meaningless.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
By most of the metrics we aren’t a bad team. The problem is, we have the opposite of “it”. You know how some teams just have that it factor and they manage to pull victory from the jaws of defeat by coming up with key plays in clutch situations and just finding crazy ways to win? We are the exact opposite of that. Instead of overachieving and doing all the little things to win games, we go to entirely the other direction.

My guess is we will continue to win the total yardage battle against most of our future opponents, just like we have against all of the teams so far (outside of ISU), but we will find ways to lose the games anyway. We will have special teams miscues, we will have turnovers in critical situations, we will run the ball down our opponents throats until the red zone where our drives will stall, our receivers will drop key 3rd down conversions, etc...

EDITED to say that I agree with you, and that’s what is going to keep giving me hope this year (although I doubt my hopes are answered how I want them to be).

To this point, I had literally zero confidence we were going to tie the game on the last possession. None. I just expected us to screw it up somehow, and we did.
 
Top