do you honestly believe that the athletic departments and alums at bama, ohio state, texas , georgia, etc..would be perfectly content to let the best players in the country go to the california schools?
u.s. representative mark walker on north carolina has met with ncaa representatives about the california law and walker is authoring a federal bill that would grant the same rights to all athletes across the county and a big part of his reasoning is concern over an advantage in recruiting:
“There’s no way one state could have this and maybe two or three other states and not the other states. The recruiting advantage it could give USC or UCLA. This is why this has got to get fixed,” Walker said.
consider we have the kansas basketball program being investigated for money being funneled to recruits by a shoe company so that they would play at a program they gotten paid millions to wear a specific brand of shoes.
the players are required to wear those shoes, wear that gear, are walking billboards for the shoe companies and yet they can't get paid for the use of their likeness.
I think Wexahu already touched on this but I actually do think those schools would be content with those players going to California so long as the the NCAA disassociates themselves with the California schools and everyone else they are competing with is is playing by the same rules.
I can't disagree with you if you are saying this becomes a federal deal and all schools are operating under this pay for likeness scenario. I am not hear to argue the mechanics or the reality of this happening but what I can say, for reasons I have already touched on, is there are a lot of negatives to the end result. And a lot of residual negatives for the student athletes themselves. Furthermore, it would be the end of TCU being competitive in football.
The likeness is driven by the fans of the university in which the player plays. John in Wyoming is not buying a Baker Mayfield OU jersey because he is a heisman candidate unless he already has an allegiance to OU. Players will simply gravitate to universities that have the bigger markets and fan bases.
There are so many layers to put on top of this. Does the NCAA continue to be a regulating body? D'Eriq King at Houston is taking his redshirt this year and says he will comes back to UofH because that is where he wants to be. Under the likeness scenerio how many OU boosters, and other outside parties, are going to push him to transfer to OU to be the next transfer Heisman winner and capitalize on likeness? I don't think the NCAA wants to rule over these transfer scenarios.
TCU or any school not used as an example by you above is done being competitive in the pay for likeness model.