FWST: TCU athletic director ‘really nervous’ about California’s new Fair Pay to Play Act

[DeuceBoogieNights]

This was posted on Reddit and it's interesting to think about
.............

This could potentially happen.

In college football, California will form a 7 team division of UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford, SDSU, Fresno St, and San Jose St.

Hawaii would probably pass a similar law fast to make them the 8th team.

Without the California schools the PAC12 wouldn't be the same, absorbing some of the other Mountain West schools.

In short order the Washington and Oregon schools will realize it's better for them to join the California division, since most of the players come from California and they are now losing recruits to San Jose State. Giving the new Cal division 12 teams

Boise St. will see an opportunity and have the state of Idaho join them, and not wanting to be left out will be the Arizona schools and now California has 15 teams.

By this point, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado will be in a panic and quickly want in, ballooning it to 23, and to make it two 12 team divisions, Wyoming comes on in.

This direct competition to the NCAA becomes a big problem for the Texas schools as they lose recruits to the west for the $$$.

Texas finally gets pissed off about that and joins them and the NCAA crumbles shortly afterwards as they look like the Ivy league conference does today, compared to the rest of the conferences, and no longer the juggernaut they each once were.

 

[CountryFrog]

What? That door's already open. Has always been. Any chemistry or philosophy student can be paid for signing autographs at the book store tonight if someone's willing to pay for their autograph.

It was a joke. Do you really think this is something that I was giving serious thought to?

 

[CountryFrog]

This was posted on Reddit and it's interesting to think about
.............

This could potentially happen.

In college football, California will form a 7 team division of UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford, SDSU, Fresno St, and San Jose St.

Hawaii would probably pass a similar law fast to make them the 8th team.

Without the California schools the PAC12 wouldn't be the same, absorbing some of the other Mountain West schools.

In short order the Washington and Oregon schools will realize it's better for them to join the California division, since most of the players come from California and they are now losing recruits to San Jose State. Giving the new Cal division 12 teams

Boise St. will see an opportunity and have the state of Idaho join them, and not wanting to be left out will be the Arizona schools and now California has 15 teams.

By this point, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado will be in a panic and quickly want in, ballooning it to 23, and to make it two 12 team divisions, Wyoming comes on in.

This direct competition to the NCAA becomes a big problem for the Texas schools as they lose recruits to the west for the $$$.

Texas finally gets pissed off about that and joins them and the NCAA crumbles shortly afterwards as they look like the Ivy league conference does today, compared to the rest of the conferences, and no longer the juggernaut they each once were.

I can't imagine 10-15 state legislatures suddenly passing brand new laws with the sole motivator being college football recruiting. But I could be wrong.

 

[Mean Purple]

This can go a few ways. Will be interesting. Either the California schools just got a big recruiting advantage or they just shot themselves in the foot.

OR
Cali schools all stop putting the names on the back of jerseys.

BOOM

 

[MTfrog5]

Can’t wait for a USC fan that is in the IRS to serve a kid from UCLA

 

[Ghost of Tobys Business College]

This was posted on Reddit and it's interesting to think about
.............

This could potentially happen.

In college football, California will form a 7 team division of UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford, SDSU, Fresno St, and San Jose St.

Hawaii would probably pass a similar law fast to make them the 8th team.

Without the California schools the PAC12 wouldn't be the same, absorbing some of the other Mountain West schools.

In short order the Washington and Oregon schools will realize it's better for them to join the California division, since most of the players come from California and they are now losing recruits to San Jose State. Giving the new Cal division 12 teams

Boise St. will see an opportunity and have the state of Idaho join them, and not wanting to be left out will be the Arizona schools and now California has 15 teams.

By this point, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado will be in a panic and quickly want in, ballooning it to 23, and to make it two 12 team divisions, Wyoming comes on in.

This direct competition to the NCAA becomes a big problem for the Texas schools as they lose recruits to the west for the $$$.

Texas finally gets pissed off about that and joins them and the NCAA crumbles shortly afterwards as they look like the Ivy league conference does today, compared to the rest of the conferences, and no longer the juggernaut they each once were.

I think this may overestimate the value and influence of west coast football. Sure it could happen, but I have a hard time seeing it going this way.
If California schools become their own non-NCAA thing, it's most likely going to become something more like the AAF or the XFL. The PAC already lags behind the other power conferences when it comes to TV ratings and this won't help nationwide viewing interest.
If the TV contracts are worth less than before, the players on those teams are going to have less leverage when it comes to getting paid for sponsorships. If the USC QB isn't going to garner much interest outside of California, they become less of an ideal spokesperson.
I can see the schools in non-Cali states, especially the blue bloods, using the decreased visibility of the Cali schools as their own counter recruiting by telling recruits they will have much more exposure going to an NCAA school that will translate to more money when they go pro (because let's face it, most of the players that would be earning anything of significance at the college level are most likely gonna get drafted).

 

[Ghost of Tobys Business College]

I'm also wondering if we see more of what we've seen from TCU athletics lately. Notice that they aren't doing the player trading card schedules any more? There's no featured player on the program?
I'm betting if schools have to pay the player for their likeness, you are just going to see more of this everywhere. Get used to "generic player" and more mascot pictures.

 

[Eight]

I think this may overestimate the value and influence of west coast football. Sure it could happen, but I have a hard time seeing it going this way.
If California schools become their own non-NCAA thing, it's most likely going to become something more like the AAF or the XFL. The PAC already lags behind the other power conferences when it comes to TV ratings and this won't help nationwide viewing interest.
If the TV contracts are worth less than before, the players on those teams are going to have less leverage when it comes to getting paid for sponsorships. If the USC QB isn't going to garner much interest outside of California, they become less of an ideal spokesperson.
I can see the schools in non-Cali states, especially the blue bloods, using the decreased visibility of the Cali schools as their own counter recruiting by telling recruits they will have much more exposure going to an NCAA school that will translate to more money when they go pro (because let's face it, most of the players that would be earning anything of significance at the college level are most likely gonna get drafted).

so if california is the only school that allows players to become a paid spokes person i am a pretty sure 100% of any number paid to them, reduced or not due to less leverage, is more than 0%.

additionally, if a usc alum is willing to drop 6 figures to get their moron children into school do you think they would bat an eye to offer the quarterback at mater dei a 6-figure contract to re-commit to usc instead of going to bama?

finally, the nfl is shown they don't give a damn where they get their kids from and the biggest myth going perpetrated by epsn etc.. is that if you want to get drafted in the nfl you need to go to a power conference.

if you can play the nfl will find you.

 

[Pharm Frog]

One wonders if the real effect of this legislation will be non-California schools in the Pac-12 between now and 2023 start kicking tires over at another conference, say Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado kicking the Big XII's tires and asking what the membership buy in would cost them. All of this would be conveniently right before the new tv deals start in 2024.

The real losers on this deal may possibly be UCLA and Cal Berkeley. As others pointed out, Stanford and USC are private schools.

Does anyone really think that USC and Stanford will decouple from the state schools? I don’t.

 

[Moose Stuff]

This was posted on Reddit and it's interesting to think about
.............

This could potentially happen.

In college football, California will form a 7 team division of UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford, SDSU, Fresno St, and San Jose St.

Hawaii would probably pass a similar law fast to make them the 8th team.

Without the California schools the PAC12 wouldn't be the same, absorbing some of the other Mountain West schools.

In short order the Washington and Oregon schools will realize it's better for them to join the California division, since most of the players come from California and they are now losing recruits to San Jose State. Giving the new Cal division 12 teams

Boise St. will see an opportunity and have the state of Idaho join them, and not wanting to be left out will be the Arizona schools and now California has 15 teams.

By this point, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado will be in a panic and quickly want in, ballooning it to 23, and to make it two 12 team divisions, Wyoming comes on in.

This direct competition to the NCAA becomes a big problem for the Texas schools as they lose recruits to the west for the $$$.

Texas finally gets pissed off about that and joins them and the NCAA crumbles shortly afterwards as they look like the Ivy league conference does today, compared to the rest of the conferences, and no longer the juggernaut they each once were.

Sounds like wishful thinking from a San Jose/Fresno fan. The more likely scenario would be Utah/Colo/ASU/UA saying “bye Felicia” and joining the Big 12 (probably also unlikely).

 

[Surfrog]

Nothing will change with this law. Colorado, Washington, and other states have legalized marijuana, but if a player test positive for marijuana on an NCAA or Pac12 drug test, it's still a failure as it is against NCAA laws.

 

[LeagueCityFrog]

Another thing too, if the commissioners of the SEC, Big XII, and Big Ten come out against this California law, this thing is dead. Those 3 conferences control the marquee competition and if those 3 commissioners say that California law ain't for us that will force the Pac 12 to go back to the California legislature and tell them to repeal the law because of future lost revenue.

Also, one wonders how this potentially devalues the Pac 12's next big TV contract with so much potential disruption and uncertainty.

Someone else wrote that this whole thing is just another scheme for the state of California to high tax another income stream while hiding behind the "it's for the best of the kids here" while California attorneys rack up the billable hours.

I think this is going to blow up in the Pac 12's face and don't be surprised if the Big XII doesn't pluck a couple of new members while the process is going along. I've been a advocate of our fanbase getting to go to Scottsdale, Tuscon, and back to Boulder. Big XII might get the last laugh here and solidify our conference.

 

[toadallytexan]

Whatever Gary is for, will have been well thought-out, particularly from the TCU interest. So there is that factor to help guide some of us through this morass.

 

[Bizarro Frog]

This is all nonsense. Big Time Football is not going to split into a separate division of get paid legally or not get paid legally. Are ESPN, Fox and CBS just going to bury their heads and have chaos undo their TV contracts? Do you think their Alumni would give a flip about rooting for a their school that competes in the semi-pro California league while the rest of the nation moves on without them with no real shot at a national title.

Are they going to have a mandatory tax prep class to teach them that they are going to lose about 45% of what they earn in California then also have to pay tax on their tuition at some point? After they get done with that they will be keeping about 30% of what they make. How many will have spent that money, be broke and owing the IRS when they leave college since they are 18-23 year old kids?

I also think the uniqueness of college football makes any type of paid minor league football so un-interesting it won’t survive unless every single Power 5 conference does it.

 

[WhatTheFrog]

I knew we should've signed our 4 year old to an endorsement deal because he showed so much "potential" in peewee league. That would've continued through middle and high school. Now, we could continue that through college? Yes, please! Potential means everything. I mean, look at Ryan Leaf, DeMarcus Russell, and Maurice Clarett. All are future Hall of Famers.

High schools will become more of a select sport than they already are now. The Aledos, Highland Parks, Southlakes, Austin Westlakes, Allens, etc. will win now and in perpetuity.

Sounds good to me. I'll just stop following college sports and follow all of the sub- and semi-pro teams that interest me. Currently, that numbers zero. I don't follow full-pro sports, either.

Money ruins all sports.

 

[Wexahu]

I also think the uniqueness of college football makes any type of paid minor league football so un-interesting it won’t survive unless every single Power 5 conference does it.

It wouldn't even survive then.

 

[Zubaz]

I think this may overestimate the value and influence of west coast football. Sure it could happen, but I have a hard time seeing it going this way.
If California schools become their own non-NCAA thing, it's most likely going to become something more like the AAF or the XFL. The PAC already lags behind the other power conferences when it comes to TV ratings and this won't help nationwide viewing interest.
If the TV contracts are worth less than before, the players on those teams are going to have less leverage when it comes to getting paid for sponsorships. If the USC QB isn't going to garner much interest outside of California, they become less of an ideal spokesperson.
I can see the schools in non-Cali states, especially the blue bloods, using the decreased visibility of the Cali schools as their own counter recruiting by telling recruits they will have much more exposure going to an NCAA school that will translate to more money when they go pro (because let's face it, most of the players that would be earning anything of significance at the college level are most likely gonna get drafted).

Not sure I agree with this. USC and Stanford (and in the above scenario, Oregon, etc) are still national brands that draw big interest because of who they are, not because they are in the NCAA. Theyd probably still fill their stadiums, provided the product on the field stays at the current level.

That said, there's a really big chunk missing from the "they will leave the NCAA and start their own pro league" thesis, and that's television contracts. I'm not sure how exclusive those networks are with the NCAA (probably not very since they all air the NFL), BUT as I understand it, it is still illegal to air professional football within X number of miles (I want to say 100?) where a high school / college game is playing. This is any the NFL doesn't air games on Saturdays until January, after the college football season is over. So what are they going to do? Play on Sundays and go head to head with the NFL? Move to spring ball? Neither seems very wise.

 

[Eight]

Not sure I agree with this. USC and Stanford (and in the above scenario, Oregon, etc) are still national brands that draw big interest because of who they are, not because they are in the NCAA. Theyd probably still fill their stadiums, provided the product on the field stays at the current level.

That said, there's a really big chunk missing from the "they will leave the NCAA and start their own pro league" thesis, and that's television contracts. I'm not sure how exclusive those networks are with the NCAA (probably not very since they all air the NFL), BUT as I understand it, it is still illegal to air professional football within X number of miles (I want to say 100?) where a high school / college game is playing. This is any the NFL doesn't air games on Saturdays until January, after the college football season is over. So what are they going to do? Play on Sundays and go head to head with the NFL? Move to spring ball? Neither seems very wise.

how would it be a professional league if the league wouldn't be paying the players?

 

[HFrog12]

Since we love attendance so much, just look at attendance for the Pac 12 football. College football is king in the south and midwest. Pac 12 is welcome to take their ball and play this game but I just don't see the value of a players likeness without the NCAA and the rest of the schools joining in. No one is going to give a flip about a California college football league. It might as well be XFL with college names on the back.

 

[WhatTheFrog]

Since we love attendance so much, just look at attendance for the Pac 12 football. College football is king in the south and midwest. Pac 12 is welcome to take their ball and play this game but I just don't see the value of a players likeness without the NCAA and the rest of the schools joining in. No one is going to give a flip about a California college football league. It might as well be XFL with college names on the back.

I'd have "Amateurs Hate Me" on the back of my jersey.