• The KillerFrogs

Basketball Predictions

Rose Bowl

Active Member
The biggest concern I have with this team is rebounding. Can we keep opposition off the glass and get enough second chance opportunities. Everybody has got to get on the boards if we’re going to be effective. Like Frances Xav said earlier there was word that Fuller would play point and that could be extremely wrong but I believe it.
 

Skip Jansen

Active Member
The biggest concern I have with this team is rebounding. Can we keep opposition off the glass and get enough second chance opportunities. Everybody has got to get on the boards if we’re going to be effective. Like Frances Xav said earlier there was word that Fuller would play point and that could be extremely wrong but I believe it.

I said earlier that Fuller will most likely get a few minutes at PG.

Let me try something different. I think we are talking past one another due to terminology. So.,. I am going to change the verbiage to match the TCU staff's and see if I can be clearer.

The staff uses the term "Ball Handlers". They call all of the the Primary and Secondary ball handlers this. They include- Bello, RJ, Dennis, and PJ. Last year when Fish was out, the team lost their main secondary ball handler. That was the biggest issue with his absence. Teams were able to load up on Alex. Unfortunately, Alex was not the type of player that could handle that much pressure playing 35-40 mins/gm. Basketball has the "Trickle Down Effect" more than any other sport. The Frogs went from being a team that was very difficult to guard, to a team that was extremely easy to defend, simply by losing their secondary ball handler.

PJ Fuller is one of the "ball handlers". He will be used in the secondary role most of the time and the primary some of the time.

Did that clear it up or make it worse?
 

Skip Jansen

Active Member
I understand why people are down for sure. But, we were very competitive last year, and I maintain we have upgraded our potential. Maybe not immediately. But depth is similar. Samuel and Barlow and Smith gotta step up. If they do, we have a shot at being v good. I wonder, with all the exterior length we have, if we run zone.

Francis-

Don't be surprised if you hear about an eligibility waiver involving one of the transfers. It would address a lot of your concerns.
 
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Farmfrog

Active Member
I said earlier that Fuller will most likely get a few minutes at PG.

Let me try something different. I think we are talking past one another due to terminology. So.,. I am going to change the verbiage to match the TCU staff's and see if I can be clearer.

The staff uses the term "Ball Handlers". They call all of the the Primary and Secondary ball handlers this. They include- Bello, RJ, Dennis, and PJ. Last year when Fish was out, the team lost their main secondary ball handler. That was the biggest issue with his absence. Teams were able to load up on Alex. Unfortunately, Alex was not the type of player that could handle that much pressure playing 35-40 mins/gm. Basketball has the "Trickle Down Effect" more than any other sport. The Frogs went from being a team that was very difficult to guard, to a team that was extremely easy to defend, simply by losing their secondary ball handler.

PJ Fuller is one of the "ball handlers". He will be used in the secondary role most of the time and the primary some of the time.

Did that clear it up or make it worse?


That makes sense. Maybe we run a dual point guard situation at times. A pure facilitator at one point and the other who can get his own shot or get to the rim. Ballhandling was, IMO, really poor last season. We only had Alex that was good enough to handle the pressure. Desmond really needs to improve his ballhandling skills in order to improve his draft stock.
 

Skip Jansen

Active Member
That makes sense. Maybe we run a dual point guard situation at times. A pure facilitator at one point and the other who can get his own shot or get to the rim. Ballhandling was, IMO, really poor last season. We only had Alex that was good enough to handle the pressure. Desmond really needs to improve his ballhandling skills in order to improve his draft stock.

Yep. Desmond could take his game to a totally different level with improved ball handling.

Can you imagine how lethal he would be if he could take a defender off the bounce? It would give him so many more scoring opportunities, as well as, getting to the line at a much higher rate. IMO, he needs to shoot 6-8 FTs/game.

He could lead the league in scoring easily.
 

Skip Jansen

Active Member
The defensive end is where I have match-up concerns due to size.

Purp-

You make some very good points about the defense. On the other side of the coin, having a lot of similar size players allows you to be able to switch everything (1-4) out on the perimeter.

That's more of a philosophical thing but it's probably a good strategy playing in the Big 12, especially against a team like Kansas that runs a lot of dribble hand-off action and duck-ins.

Texas Tech (and others) likes to move where they initiate their ball-screen action. When it's on the side, they screen it with their 4 in pick and pop. Switching gives you another option besides 'Icing' the action. 'Icing' the ball-screen keeps the ball out of the middle of the floor but it is susceptible to giving up the open 3 point shot (Pop). Switching also simplifies your defensive coverages, which is good for a young team.
 

Purp

Active Member
Purp-

You make some very good points about the defense. On the other side of the coin, having a lot of similar size players allows you to be able to switch everything (1-4) out on the perimeter.

That's more of a philosophical thing but it's probably a good strategy playing in the Big 12, especially against a team like Kansas that runs a lot of dribble hand-off action and duck-ins.

Texas Tech (and others) likes to move where they initiate their ball-screen action. When it's on the side, they screen it with their 4 in pick and pop. Switching gives you another option besides 'Icing' the action. 'Icing' the ball-screen keeps the ball out of the middle of the floor but it is susceptible to giving up the open 3 point shot (Pop). Switching also simplifies your defensive coverages, which is good for a young team.
You hit on a thought I had while typing that post. I didn't say it, but was thinking we may be trading off better interior defense for better perimeter defense. Our 3-point defense has been pretty rough the last couple years, though it was better last year. I think you articulated well why that has been. With more athletic, albeit a little smaller, guys at the 3/4 positions you can make it harder to get open perimeter shots, but then you can be exposed more easily on the interior. So instead of getting drubbed with the pick and pop we may get hammered more by the pick and roll, or worse, a bunch of ally-oops and back cuts for easy buckets under the basket.

I feel really good about our starting 5 from a defensive standpoint. When Samuel is in the middle I think that will make everyone else better. It's when he isn't in that I have concerns. Barlow has potential, but we didn't get to see enough of him last season for me to come into this season with a great deal of confidence there. If he gets it all together I'd have a lot less anxiety about the defensive end.

Rebounding was mentioned previously as a potential problem due to size/depth at the 4 so your allusion to a possible eligibility waiver is especially interesting. That could be amazing for us. That said, rebounding is more about hustle and positioning than size so as long as we have guys that will work hard on the defensive end of the floor at every position I still feel fine about our ability to rebound the ball. The athleticism is there to be very successful.
 

MTfrog5

Active Member
Yep. Desmond could take his game to a totally different level with improved ball handling.

Can you imagine how lethal he would be if he could take a defender off the bounce? It would give him so many more scoring opportunities, as well as, getting to the line at a much higher rate. IMO, he needs to shoot 6-8 FTs/game.

He could lead the league in scoring easily.
Bane also doesn’t need to have any scoreless halves this year. Was painful watching him not get touches last year or immediately passing the ball instead of looking to score at times
 

Purp

Active Member
Bane also doesn’t need to have any scoreless halves this year. Was painful watching him not get touches last year or immediately passing the ball instead of looking to score at times
I'm thinking Skip's point about missing Fish as our primary secondary (sounds counter-intuitive) ball handler affected Bane in this way as much as it did ARob. You're right that Bane did disappear for entire halves last season, but so did Noi and several others. I think that's illustrative of Skip's point about secondary ball handling as a critical element of our offense more than it is those individuals and their ability/willingness to perform in clutch moments. By being easier to defend last year without Fish opponents basically picked a dangerous scorer to shut down and went and executed. When guys like KD and JD stepped up to fill the void we were successful. When they didn't we got clown stomped.
 

Skip Jansen

Active Member
You hit on a thought I had while typing that post. I didn't say it, but was thinking we may be trading off better interior defense for better perimeter defense. Our 3-point defense has been pretty rough the last couple years, though it was better last year. I think you articulated well why that has been. With more athletic, albeit a little smaller, guys at the 3/4 positions you can make it harder to get open perimeter shots, but then you can be exposed more easily on the interior. So instead of getting drubbed with the pick and pop we may get hammered more by the pick and roll, or worse, a bunch of ally-oops and back cuts for easy buckets under the basket.

I feel really good about our starting 5 from a defensive standpoint. When Samuel is in the middle I think that will make everyone else better. It's when he isn't in that I have concerns. Barlow has potential, but we didn't get to see enough of him last season for me to come into this season with a great deal of confidence there. If he gets it all together I'd have a lot less anxiety about the defensive end.

Rebounding was mentioned previously as a potential problem due to size/depth at the 4 so your allusion to a possible eligibility waiver is especially interesting. That could be amazing for us. That said, rebounding is more about hustle and positioning than size so as long as we have guys that will work hard on the defensive end of the floor at every position I still feel fine about our ability to rebound the ball. The athleticism is there to be very successful.

Purp-
Some really good stuff there. Let me address your concerns-

"So instead of getting drubbed with the pick and pop we may get hammered more by the pick and roll, or worse, a bunch of ally-oops and back cuts for easy buckets under the basket."

Most Pick and Rolls are initiated at the top and screened with the 5 (Post). Obviously that's not going to be switched. Depending on who the ball-handler and screener are, as well as, where the shot clock is (time wise). That will be defended a lot differently.

You can go under the screen if the player isn't a good shooter. You can hard hedge and recover. You can blitz or trap it. Too many more to mention

As for rebounding, I agree with you for the most part. One thing to consider- While 'lack of size' does hurt with defensive rebounding. 'Quickness' and 'anticipation' can help you on the offensive glass, especially for a team spreads the floor. Offensive Rebounds usually lead to good things. The best time to get an open step in 3 is off an offensive rebound.
 
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Skip Jansen

Active Member
Bane also doesn’t need to have any scoreless halves this year. Was painful watching him not get touches last year or immediately passing the ball instead of looking to score at times

Agree 100%.

I'll be honest, I didn't know if Desmond's personality would allow him to be the Top Dog on the team.

Well... I was totally wrong. I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised at his assertiveness and leadership going into his Senior year.
 

Eight

Member
Purp-
Some really good stuff there. Let me address your concerns-

"So instead of getting drubbed with the pick and pop we may get hammered more by the pick and roll, or worse, a bunch of ally-oops and back cuts for easy buckets under the basket."

Most Pick and Rolls are initiated at the top and screened with the 5 (Post). Obviously that's not going to be switched. Depending on who the ball-handler and screener are, as well as, where the shot clock is (time wise). That will be defended a lot differently.

You can go under the screen if the player isn't a good shooter. You can hard hedge and recover. You can blitz or trap it. Too many more to mention

As for rebounding, I agree with you for the most part. One day thing to consider- While 'lack of size' does hurt with defensive rebounding. 'Quickness' and 'anticipation' can help you on the offensive glass, especially for a team spreads the floor. Offensive Rebounds usually lead to good things. The best time to get an open step in 3 is off an offensive rebound.

the concern having kevin trying to guard a player 15-18 feet from the basket. he got exposed a few times last year and there are a few 4's and 5's in the big 12 who do have the ability to play at the free throw line.

i do think the increased size on the perimeter may make it more difficult to feed the post as opposed to last year.

the final game against texas were they just pounded tcu inside as well as the loss in morgantown where the big freshman dominated the inside are my biggest concerns when the frogs get into conference play.
 

Skip Jansen

Active Member
the concern having kevin trying to guard a player 15-18 feet from the basket. he got exposed a few times last year and there are a few 4's and 5's in the big 12 who do have the ability to play at the free throw line.

i do think the increased size on the perimeter may make it more difficult to feed the post as opposed to last year.

the final game against texas were they just pounded tcu inside as well as the loss in morgantown where the big freshman dominated the inside are my biggest concerns when the frogs get into conference play.


I wish I could disagree with any of that, but unfortunately it's all true.

Most bigs are not comfortable defending out on the floor or in space, but Kev definitely has to get better (and smarter) at it. Cannot foul that far from the basket.

Developing a back-up at the 5 is a huge priority. No doubt about that.
 

Purp

Active Member
Purp-
Some really good stuff there. Let me address your concerns-

"So instead of getting drubbed with the pick and pop we may get hammered more by the pick and roll, or worse, a bunch of ally-oops and back cuts for easy buckets under the basket."

Most Pick and Rolls are initiated at the top and screened with the 5 (Post). Obviously that's not going to be switched. Depending on who the ball-handler and screener are, as well as, where the shot clock is (time wise). That will be defended a lot differently.

You can go under the screen if the player isn't a good shooter. You can hard hedge and recover. You can blitz or trap it. Too many more to mention

As for rebounding, I agree with you for the most part. One day thing to consider- While 'lack of size' does hurt with defensive rebounding. 'Quickness' and 'anticipation' can help you on the offensive glass, especially for a team spreads the floor. Offensive Rebounds usually lead to good things. The best time to get an open step in 3 is off an offensive rebound.
You may be my favorite new poster on this board in a half dozen years. Very insightful stuff.

I was a Mavs season tix holder for close to 20 years before giving them up a few seasons ago. Great TCU basketball made that a much easier call. The point is, I saw a lot of Mavs rosters similarly built to what it looks like we'll have this season. If I were the opposing coach I know how I would try to defend us and how I would try to attack our defense because I saw the Mavs' weaknesses exploited so often it was maddening they couldn't do anything to address them. What I see from our eligible roster right now would have me a little anxious about my defense, but confident about my offense.

I'd start by going at Samuel. Until he proves he can stay out of foul trouble I'd make him defend me hard around the basket. If he blocked my first 10 shots of the game I'd still keep going at him. The idea is that once he's in foul trouble or worn out I perceive a big hole in the defense that I could exploit.

With Samuel out I'd take advantage of your switching to get my best ball handler on your slowest/least agile perimeter defender. He may be a great athlete, but it's doubtful he can consistently keep my best ball handler out of the paint 1v1. Whether he's playing the 3/4 won't matter; I'll find him and get the match-up I want as long as you're predictably switching. From there I can beat that guy off the dribble with more open paint and less of a shot blocking presence for an easy bucket under the rim or find an open shooter vacated by a help side defender. I could also fake penetration and pull up for an open jumper or another open teammate with a better perimeter look.

Another strategy I'd deploy is getting my 4 with a size advantage some opportunities with his back to the basket. When Samuel goes out I can get a lot more athletic to match you and my 4 can play the 5 and you still can't defend me on the block. If my 4 can pass well that creates even more challenges for you on defense.

All of these scenarios depend on 3 assumptions.

1) Barlow is a significant step down from Samuel
2) Our size and depth at the 4 is significantly dropped off from last season
3) The 1-4 positions aren't so athletic that they can prevent me from penetrating in man defense

If Barlow shows a lot of improvement from last year to this year (not unreasonable for young players) and your possible eligibility waiver goes through my assumptions are shot to hell and we suddenly are much more difficult to match up against. If assumption #3 is true then assumptions 1 and 2 aren't as worrisome, though they would still be opportunities for opponents with the right players to expose it.

I'm sure CJD and his staff have already run through these scenarios and more with the team to be prepared for the opponents we'll face, but knowing what's coming and stopping it are two different things. Until those 3 assumptions change that's what I see for our defense and is the reason I have concerns. I am encouraged by your thoughts on our ability to defend the 1-4 positions interchangeably. If we can really execute at that level we may be able to get stops after all. It's not like the B12 has a ton more quality and depth at the 5 than we do. Each of our opponents will also have weaknesses to exploit.
 

Farmfrog

Active Member
Purp-

You make some very good points about the defense. On the other side of the coin, having a lot of similar size players allows you to be able to switch everything (1-4) out on the perimeter.

That's more of a philosophical thing but it's probably a good strategy playing in the Big 12, especially against a team like Kansas that runs a lot of dribble hand-off action and duck-ins.

Texas Tech (and others) likes to move where they initiate their ball-screen action. When it's on the side, they screen it with their 4 in pick and pop. Switching gives you another option besides 'Icing' the action. 'Icing' the ball-screen keeps the ball out of the middle of the floor but it is susceptible to giving up the open 3 point shot (Pop). Switching also simplifies your defensive coverages, which is good for a young team.



This is a very good post. Skip makes several good points about how we might play defense. I thought we were decent at icing last year and should be, at least, just as good or better. KU with their dribble handoffs really gave us fits because their athleticism and length that they could shoot over us when they had to.

I wish we would initiate our offense on the wing or at the foul line. I wonder why we don’t down screen or back screen using the 3-4 man to get the off the ball player (backside) an open look ie. a dunk. We really don’t have a great PnR game or PnP because nobody is scared of Samuel and that’s why Barlow’s development is crucial to me.
 

Skip Jansen

Active Member
You may be my favorite new poster on this board in a half dozen years. Very insightful stuff.

I was a Mavs season tix holder for close to 20 years before giving them up a few seasons ago. Great TCU basketball made that a much easier call. The point is, I saw a lot of Mavs rosters similarly built to what it looks like we'll have this season. If I were the opposing coach I know how I would try to defend us and how I would try to attack our defense because I saw the Mavs' weaknesses exploited so often it was maddening they couldn't do anything to address them. What I see from our eligible roster right now would have me a little anxious about my defense, but confident about my offense.

I'd start by going at Samuel. Until he proves he can stay out of foul trouble I'd make him defend me hard around the basket. If he blocked my first 10 shots of the game I'd still keep going at him. The idea is that once he's in foul trouble or worn out I perceive a big hole in the defense that I could exploit.

With Samuel out I'd take advantage of your switching to get my best ball handler on your slowest/least agile perimeter defender. He may be a great athlete, but it's doubtful he can consistently keep my best ball handler out of the paint 1v1. Whether he's playing the 3/4 won't matter; I'll find him and get the match-up I want as long as you're predictably switching. From there I can beat that guy off the dribble with more open paint and less of a shot blocking presence for an easy bucket under the rim or find an open shooter vacated by a help side defender. I could also fake penetration and pull up for an open jumper or another open teammate with a better perimeter look.

Another strategy I'd deploy is getting my 4 with a size advantage some opportunities with his back to the basket. When Samuel goes out I can get a lot more athletic to match you and my 4 can play the 5 and you still can't defend me on the block. If my 4 can pass well that creates even more challenges for you on defense.

All of these scenarios depend on 3 assumptions.

1) Barlow is a significant step down from Samuel
2) Our size and depth at the 4 is significantly dropped off from last season
3) The 1-4 positions aren't so athletic that they can prevent me from penetrating in man defense

If Barlow shows a lot of improvement from last year to this year (not unreasonable for young players) and your possible eligibility waiver goes through my assumptions are shot to hell and we suddenly are much more difficult to match up against. If assumption #3 is true then assumptions 1 and 2 aren't as worrisome, though they would still be opportunities for opponents with the right players to expose it.

I'm sure CJD and his staff have already run through these scenarios and more with the team to be prepared for the opponents we'll face, but knowing what's coming and stopping it are two different things. Until those 3 assumptions change that's what I see for our defense and is the reason I have concerns. I am encouraged by your thoughts on our ability to defend the 1-4 positions interchangeably. If we can really execute at that level we may be able to get stops after all. It's not like the B12 has a ton more quality and depth at the 5 than we do. Each of our opponents will also have weaknesses to exploit.

Stop it. You're making me blush.

Bravo on the X and Os. Great stuff. Really well thought out.

I'll play the other side of it. Getting the ball in the post against Samuel certainly is very logical and makes sense. Getting anybody's post player in foul trouble is certainly advantageous. How do you combat that?

1- Pressure the basketball in the back court for starters. Not so much to create turnovers but to burn clock. Don't allow them to get into their offense until the clock is down to 18-19 seconds.

2- Front the Post. Their guy can't draw a foul if he can't get the ball. Last year's team didn't do this because they didn't have the ability to pressure the ball on the perimeter. Those two things go hand in hand. This year's team can.

3. If the opponent wants to 'attack the switch' that they want, it better happen quick. The shot clock is ticking. I feel this plays to me because I think they are going to get a lot of 'late in the clock' possessions, leading to bad shots and 'live ball turnovers'. An opportunity to score in transition.

The TCU staff does a good job of 'self scouting'. They also anticipate the opponent's game plan pretty well. Jamie is very stubborn (as a lot of good coaches are) but he makes good adjustments almost every time.

That was fun. Thanks!
 
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