Purp-
Some really good stuff there. Let me address your concerns-
"So instead of getting drubbed with the pick and pop we may get hammered more by the pick and roll, or worse, a bunch of ally-oops and back cuts for easy buckets under the basket."
Most Pick and Rolls are initiated at the top and screened with the 5 (Post). Obviously that's not going to be switched. Depending on who the ball-handler and screener are, as well as, where the shot clock is (time wise). That will be defended a lot differently.
You can go under the screen if the player isn't a good shooter. You can hard hedge and recover. You can blitz or trap it. Too many more to mention
As for rebounding, I agree with you for the most part. One day thing to consider- While 'lack of size' does hurt with defensive rebounding. 'Quickness' and 'anticipation' can help you on the offensive glass, especially for a team spreads the floor. Offensive Rebounds usually lead to good things. The best time to get an open step in 3 is off an offensive rebound.
You may be my favorite new poster on this board in a half dozen years. Very insightful stuff.
I was a Mavs season tix holder for close to 20 years before giving them up a few seasons ago. Great TCU basketball made that a much easier call. The point is, I saw a lot of Mavs rosters similarly built to what it looks like we'll have this season. If I were the opposing coach I know how I would try to defend us and how I would try to attack our defense because I saw the Mavs' weaknesses exploited so often it was maddening they couldn't do anything to address them. What I see from our eligible roster right now would have me a little anxious about my defense, but confident about my offense.
I'd start by going at Samuel. Until he proves he can stay out of foul trouble I'd make him defend me hard around the basket. If he blocked my first 10 shots of the game I'd still keep going at him. The idea is that once he's in foul trouble or worn out I perceive a big hole in the defense that I could exploit.
With Samuel out I'd take advantage of your switching to get my best ball handler on your slowest/least agile perimeter defender. He may be a great athlete, but it's doubtful he can consistently keep my best ball handler out of the paint 1v1. Whether he's playing the 3/4 won't matter; I'll find him and get the match-up I want as long as you're predictably switching. From there I can beat that guy off the dribble with more open paint and less of a shot blocking presence for an easy bucket under the rim or find an open shooter vacated by a help side defender. I could also fake penetration and pull up for an open jumper or another open teammate with a better perimeter look.
Another strategy I'd deploy is getting my 4 with a size advantage some opportunities with his back to the basket. When Samuel goes out I can get a lot more athletic to match you and my 4 can play the 5 and you still can't defend me on the block. If my 4 can pass well that creates even more challenges for you on defense.
All of these scenarios depend on 3 assumptions.
1) Barlow is a significant step down from Samuel
2) Our size and depth at the 4 is significantly dropped off from last season
3) The 1-4 positions aren't so athletic that they can prevent me from penetrating in man defense
If Barlow shows a lot of improvement from last year to this year (not unreasonable for young players) and your possible eligibility waiver goes through my assumptions are shot to hell and we suddenly are much more difficult to match up against. If assumption #3 is true then assumptions 1 and 2 aren't as worrisome, though they would still be opportunities for opponents with the right players to expose it.
I'm sure CJD and his staff have already run through these scenarios and more with the team to be prepared for the opponents we'll face, but knowing what's coming and stopping it are two different things. Until those 3 assumptions change that's what I see for our defense and is the reason I have concerns. I am encouraged by your thoughts on our ability to defend the 1-4 positions interchangeably. If we can really execute at that level we may be able to get stops after all. It's not like the B12 has a ton more quality and depth at the 5 than we do. Each of our opponents will also have weaknesses to exploit.