Your last sentence there is the key to all of this and with every recruit. I know fans love talking about this stuff (especially on message boards) and there's nothing at all wrong with that but none of us have even close to enough information to be making judgments about things that the staff or each individual athlete are doing in recruiting. Why they waited to offer this kid, why they never offered this other kid, why they offered someone we've never heard of over the 5 star guy, why that one de-committed, why we stopped pursuing that other one.
There's so much speculation and just flat out bad information out there on all this stuff that trying to make sense of it all as a fan is totally pointless imo. Some people enjoy the speculation, though, and that's certainly ok.