• The KillerFrogs

My biggest regret about this season....

LVH

LVH

Active Member
We haven't covered a conference game all year and the books still haven't adjusted.

The manager at Stations I talked to this morning was really confident TCU would cover which is why the line wasn't moving. Said all the respected bettors were putting money on us.
 
Punter1

Punter1

Full Member
LVH said:
We haven't covered a conference game all year and the books still haven't adjusted.

The manager at Stations I talked to this morning was really confident TCU would cover which is why the line wasn't moving. Said all the respected bettors were putting money on us.
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Its insane. The OU and WVU games should have at least been 24. We just can't score so even when the D plays good for a while the game will eventually get outtahand...

Shocked the sharps and the books can't see what is extremely painfully obvious...
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Punter1 said:
....is not betting against us starting with the Tech game. Every single freaking line seemed like the lock of the year. Today might have the biggest mystery.

I should really have made about $500k the past 5 games to put a silver lining on this dumpster fire...
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Agree completely. I have never bet against TCU but I thought about it today. Seemed like an easy / low-risk way to double my life savings.

The computers have thought we are better than we are all year long and have not adjusted near enough. This team has a knack for giving up free points like I’ve never seen before.
 
LVH

LVH

Active Member
Punter1 said:
Its insane. The OU and WVU games should have at least been 24. We just can't score so even when the D plays good for a while the game will eventually get outtahand...

Shocked the sharps and the books can't see what is extremely painfully obvious...
Click to expand...

I compare models with other bettors around here. Everyone had this game between 10 and 13. Line was what it was. The problem is computer models factor in more than just scores. Looking at box scores we really only got dominated statistically vs Oklahoma before today. That's why we continued to get respect at the books

I think a 37 point loss should be enough to adjust the computers that set lines for our last 2 games.
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Volare said:
should be at least 7 point dogs in both remaining games. If not, you know what to do.
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Based on the Sagarin ratings going into this week, we were basically dead even with Okie St and 6.5 points better than Baylor.

I’m not sure what effect this week’s results will have on the computers, but I’m guessing we will be low single-digit favorites on the road against Baylor and close to a pick em at home against Okie St.
 
Punter1

Punter1

Full Member
Ron Swanson said:
Agree completely. I have never bet against TCU but I thought about it today. Seemed like an easy / low-risk way to double my life savings.

The computers have thought we are better than we are all year long and have not adjusted near enough. This team has a knack for giving up free points like I’ve never seen before.
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On paper or on the computer that sounds good...but realisticly we aren't gonna score more then 24 against either team...maybe not even 20. Is Okie Lite or BayLOL gonna score more then 20? Probably OSU....and I like Baylors chances to get to 20 better then ours...
 
LVH

LVH

Active Member
Punter1 said:
On paper or on the computer that sounds good...but realisticly we aren't gonna score more then 24 against either team...maybe not even 20. Is Okie Lite or BayLOL gonna score more then 20? Probably OSU....and I like Baylors chances to get to 20 better then ours...
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Baylor is getting shut out by Iowa State right now. They lost to WVU and Oklahoma worse than us.

I think too many on this board drastically overrate Baylor.
 
W

WestTXFrog

Active Member
Is anyone going to mention Turpin playing half of a season or the coaching staff getting tricked by a 20 something with academic issues as a regret?
 
Punter1

Punter1

Full Member
Pharm Frog said:
I don't know about people overrating Baylor as much as figuring that they will get up for that game and we've shown almost no desire or demonstrable fire.
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That is exactly my thought. Our Give a Darn factor is about zilch and I'm not as high on Baylor as much as I am down on us...and we just seem to turn the ball over in crazy ways this year which always leads to losses...and in this case blown covers...

Baylor seems to have a much more "professional" offense with limited turnovers and actual gaining of 1st downs.

I think Baylor wins 23-20, 23-17...something like that...I darning hope in wrong but that's my feel...

And if we lose to Baylor I'm betting my house on any line under 21.
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Ron Swanson said:
Based on the Sagarin ratings going into this week, we were basically dead even with Okie St and 6.5 points better than Baylor.

I’m not sure what effect this week’s results will have on the computers, but I’m guessing we will be low single-digit favorites on the road against Baylor and close to a pick em at home against Okie St.
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Frogs open -2.5 against Baylor
 
D

DieHardFrog2020MBA

Turd
Ron Swanson said:
Agree completely. I have never bet against TCU but I thought about it today. Seemed like an easy / low-risk way to double my life savings.

The computers have thought we are better than we are all year long and have not adjusted near enough. This team has a knack for giving up free points like I’ve never seen before.
Click to expand...

It would not be wise to bet entire life savings on any sporting event. Especially with healthcare system in your country being so awful.
 

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