Wynn Opener: Ohio State -13
- Thread starter LVH
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FrogAbroad
Full Member
Suckeyes will easily cover -13.
Ron Swanson
Full Member
7.5 I think?
But I think we were rated higher last year, too, which has to be factored in (I could be wrong on that).
They have OSU as #2 behind Bama
BigPurple87
Active Member
If we play like we did at SMU we will be lucky to stay within 20.
McFroggin
Active Member
I was fairly accurate in the thread about score predictions as I’ve got OSU by 14.
We haven’t played a team with a pulse, and neither has OSU. The hype of Game Day at TCU, Cowboys stadium, and the inexperience at QB on both sides increases the odds that 1 team will win by a sizeable amount. OSU has more depth and is ranked much higher, so a wide spread was to be expected.
Any given Saturday, anything could happen though. Go Frogs!
We haven’t played a team with a pulse, and neither has OSU. The hype of Game Day at TCU, Cowboys stadium, and the inexperience at QB on both sides increases the odds that 1 team will win by a sizeable amount. OSU has more depth and is ranked much higher, so a wide spread was to be expected.
Any given Saturday, anything could happen though. Go Frogs!
When was the last time a Frog opponent was favored by ten or more?
Shawn Robinson, although inexperienced, is comfortable in Jerry’s world.
He has good memories there.
2/3 of the games he has started has been in bad weather.
Indoors in a controlled environment, I think he will do just fine. It’s the other parts of the team that needs to step up.
This will be like a bowl game, nothing new.
He has good memories there.
2/3 of the games he has started has been in bad weather.
Indoors in a controlled environment, I think he will do just fine. It’s the other parts of the team that needs to step up.
This will be like a bowl game, nothing new.
SnoSki
Full Member
Let’s hope it doesn’t rain inside jerryworld
SnoSki
Full Member
This is a good point I hadn’t yet considered.
BigPurple87
Active Member
True but the rain didn't seem to bother SMU much in the 1st quarter
Ray Finkle
Active Member
You are a rational fan. Welcome to the board. We look forward to discussing the upcoming game with you. It’s a lot more fun discussing football than talking trash. We appreciate your insight going forward this week.
May the refs not dictate the outcome!
WhiteHispanicFrog
Curmudgeon
If you’re interested, this article from a few years ago gives an overview of TCU’s 4-2-5 defense.
http://grantland.com/features/hard-knocks-playing-defense-with-tcus-gary-patterson/
The Degenerate Frog
Active Member
Here is what the data suggests. Rather than trying to pick winners, take the picks where true value differs most from Vegas value (lines). Unfortunately, it looks like true value is closer to 3 TDs for OSU than 2TDs. Doesn't mean the frogs won't win, it just means that as of now, OSU is more efficient per offensive and defensive play relative to the competition it is facing.
Bill Connely developed his S&P+ Ratings and does the deep analytics on this. Its the most in depth model out there for NCAAF. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a close 2nd.
The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).
OSU Off S&P + 51.4
OSU Def S&P + 15.6
OSU ST S&P + 0.1
OSU S&P margin 36.0
TCU Off S&P + 34.2
TCU Def S&P + 17.6
TCU ST S&P + 0.0
TCU S&P margin +16.6
I do this for most soccer leagues, baseball, international basketball leagues, and NCAAF. I don't do this for NFL as the amount of games with significant value is too few.
Bill Connely developed his S&P+ Ratings and does the deep analytics on this. Its the most in depth model out there for NCAAF. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a close 2nd.
The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).
OSU Off S&P + 51.4
OSU Def S&P + 15.6
OSU ST S&P + 0.1
OSU S&P margin 36.0
TCU Off S&P + 34.2
TCU Def S&P + 17.6
TCU ST S&P + 0.0
TCU S&P margin +16.6
I do this for most soccer leagues, baseball, international basketball leagues, and NCAAF. I don't do this for NFL as the amount of games with significant value is too few.
Horny4TCU
Active Member
DeuceBoogieNights
Active Member
I think whoever wins it will be by less than 7. I have a feeling OSU wins this one though. I think Robinson will make a couple of young QB mistakes that will end up being the deciding factor.
