• The KillerFrogs

DEGENERATE GAMBLERS WEEK 2

The Degenerate Frog

Active Member
Starting this up early for whoever started this thread last week. Below are the S&P numbers for week 2. Bill Connelly developed S&P which is college footballs deepest advanced analytics system used for predictive modeling. Its worth taking a look at Vegas numbers and S&P projections before making a bet. Betting NCAAF and NFL is different because there are so few data points. This is a good tool for value betting and gets better as the season goes on. No point betting the lopsided games as spreads and totals depend more on a coaches willingness to put more points on the board or play first team players.

TEAMS // S&P PROJ TOTAL // VEGAL O/U // S&P PROJ SPREAD // VEGAS SPREAD
No. 16 TCU (-23.5) 46, SMU 19 (Sep. 7, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2) 65 // 59 // -27 // -23.5
No. 3 Georgia (-10) 36, No. 24 South Carolina 23 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) 59 // 56.5 // -13 // -10
No. 10 Stanford (-5.5) 32, No. 17 USC 24 (Sep. 8, 8:30 p.m. ET, Fox) 56 // 56.5 // -8 // -5.5
No. 1 Alabama 52, Arkansas State (+35.5) 17 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) 69 // 66 // 35 // 35.5
No. 2 Clemson 32, Texas A&M (+12.5) 20 (Sep. 8, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN) 52 // 54.5 // 12 // 12.5
No. 4 Ohio State 43, Rutgers (+35.5) 10 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN) 53 // 63 // 33 // 35.5
No. 5 Wisconsin 51, New Mexico (+35) 22 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m. ET, BTN) 73 // 59 // 29 // 35
No. 6 Oklahoma 43 (-30.5), UCLA 7 (Sep. 8, 1 p.m. ET, Fox) 50 // 64 // -36 // -30.5
No. 7 Auburn 80, Alabama State 0 (Sep. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET, SECN) NA // NA // NA // NA
No. 8 Notre Dame 39, Ball State (+35.5) 10 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC) 49 // 62 // 29 // 35.5
No. 9 Washington 45, North Dakota 0 (Sep. 8, 5 p.m. ET, Pac-12) NA // NA // NA // NA
No. 11 LSU 55, SE Louisiana 0 (Sep. 8, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) NA // NA // NA // NA
No. 12 Virginia Tech 45, Willam & Mary 0 (Sep. 8, 2 p.m. ET, ACCN) NA // NA // NA // NA
No. 13 Penn State 42, Pittsburgh (+9.5) 33 (Sep. 8, 8 p.m. ET, ABC) 75 // 56.5 // 9 // 9.5
No. 14 West Virginia 34, Youngstown State 7 (Sep. 8, 6 p.m. ET, ATTPI) NA // NA // NA // NA
Arizona State (+7) 33, No. 15 Michigan State 31 (Sep. 8, 10:45 p.m. ET, ESPN) 64 // 54 // -2 // 7
No. 18 Mississippi State (-9) 35, Kansas State 10 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m.ET, ESPN) 45 // 53 // -25 // -9
No. 19 UCF 56, SC State 0 (Sep. 8, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN3) NA // NA // NA // NA
No. 20 Boise State (-31.5) 58, UConn 12 (Sep. 8, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPNU) 70 // 64 // -46 // -31.5
No. 21 Michigan (-28) 44, Western Michigan 16 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m.ET, FS1) 60 // 56.5 // -28 // -28
No. 22 Miami 63, Savannah State 0 (Sep. 8, 6 p.m. ET, ACCN) NA // NA // NA // NA
No. 23 Oregon 49, Portland State 0 (Sep. 8, 2 p.m.ET, Pac-12) NA // NA // NA // NA
No. 25 Florida (-14) 34, Kentucky 16 (Sep. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET, SECN) 50 // 51 // -18 // -14
Colorado (+3.5) 33, Nebraska 28 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) 61 // 64.5 // -5 // 3.5
Duke 34 (+3), Northwestern 32 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU) 66 // 48.5 // -2 // 3
Iowa (-4.5) 26, Iowa State 15 (Sep. 8, 5 p.m. ET, Fox) 39 // 47 // -11 // -4.5
Virginia (+6.5) 29, Indiana 27 (Sep. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET, BTN) 56 // 52.5 // -2 // 6.5
Appalachian State 36, Charlotte (+14) 24 (Sep. 8, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 60 // 48.5 // 12 // 14
Arkansas (-14.5) 47, Colorado State 26 (Sep. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN) 73 // 70 // -21 // -14.5
Baylor (-16) 51, UTSA 30 (Sep. 8, 7 p.m. ET, Facebook) 81 // 51 // -21 // -16
Buffalo (+5) 28, Temple 23 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3) 51 // 51 // -5 // 5
BYU 23, California (+3) 21 (Sep. 8, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2) 44 // 46.5 // 2 // 3
Central Michigan (-5.5) 21, Kansas 15 (Sep. 8, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 36 // 50 // -6 // -5.5
Cincinnati (+1) 29, Miami (Ohio) 27 (Sep. 8, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN3) 56 // 50 // -2 // 1
Florida Atlantic 23, Air Force (+9.5) 23 (Sep. 8, 2 p.m. ET, Facebook) 46 // 65 // 0 // 9.5
Florida International (-1) 34, Old Dominion 26 (Sep. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET, beIN) 60 // 51.5 // -8 // -1
Fresno State (+2.5) 32, Minnesota 28 (Sep. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET, FS1) 60 // 47.5 // -4 // 2.5
Georgia Southern 36, UMass (+2.5) 34 (Sep. 8, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 70 // 63 // 2 // 2.5
Hawaii 46, Rice (+18) 39 (Sep. 8, 11:59 p.m. ET, Stadium) 85 // 70.5 // 7 // 18
Houston (-3.5) 36, Arizona 32 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2) 68 // 71 // -4 // -3.5
Liberty (+9) 31, Army 30 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN) 61 // 59 // -1 // 9
Maryland (-16) 45, Bowling Green 29 (Sep. 8, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 74 // 65.5 // -16 // -16
Memphis (-7) 55, Navy 28 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN) 83 // 68 //-27 // -7
Missouri (-18.5) 42, Wyoming 24 (Sep. 8, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU) 66 // 52.5 // -18 // -18.5
NC State 32, Georgia State (+24.5) 12 (Sep. 8, 12:30 p.m. ET, ACCN) 44 // 57.5 // 20 // 24.5
North Carolina (-17) 23, East Carolina 4 (Sep. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU) 27 // 60 // -19 // -17
Oklahoma State 47, South Alabama (+33) 16 (Sep. 8, 8 p.m. ET, FSN) 63 // 63 // 31 // 33
Purdue 33, Eastern Michigan (+17) 31 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m. ET, BTN) 64 // 54.5 // 2 // 17
Southern Miss (-5.5) 35, UL-Monroe 17 (Sep. 8, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN3) 52 // 69 // -18 // -5.5
Texas 36, Tulsa (+23) 20 (Sep. 8, 8 p.m. ET, LHN) 56 // 62.5 // 16 // 23
UAB (-10) 36, Coastal Carolina 19 (Sep. 8, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 55 // 55 // -17 // -10
UNLV 37, UTEP (+24) 13 (Sep. 8, 9 p.m. ET, MWC Video) 50 // 55.5 // 24 // 24
USF (+3.5) 25, Georgia Tech 23 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2) 48 // 61.5 // -2 // 3.5
Utah (-10.5) 28, Northern Illinois 4 (Sep. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNN) 32 // 47.5 // -24 // -10.5
Utah State 45, New Mexico State (+24) 24 (Sep. 8, 8 p.m. ET, Facebook) 69 // 62 // 21 // 24
Vanderbilt (-8) 37, Nevada 28 (Sep. 8, 12 p.m.PM ET, SECN) 65 // 62 // -9 // -8
Washington State (-34.5) 54, San Jose State 12 (Sep. 8, 11 p.m. ET, Pac-12) 66 // 65 // -42 // -34.5
 

Bob Sugar

Active Member
MSU -9 @ KSU
TCU - 23.5 @ SMU
S Car +10 vs UGA
Stanford -5.5 vs. USC
Liberty +9 @ Army
UF -14 vs Kentucky
PSU - 9.5 @ Pitt
ASU +7 vs. MSU

Thats-About-It-Shrimp-In-Forrest-Gump.gif
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I took....
Clemson -13 at Aggies
Miss St -9 at K-State
Memphis/Navy over 69
Penn State -9 over Pitt
Baylor -15 over UTSA (I'm happy with either result on this one).
 

The Degenerate Frog

Active Member
Based on S&P analytics vs Vegas line, here are the picks with the most value. Again, this has nothing to do with most likely to win, but rather the picks in which you will get most bang for your buck because the Vegas line is much different than true value. Goal is to net 10% profit on every dollar wagered. If I wager $1000 over the weekend, I expect to be up $100 on average as S&P predicted outcome is more than 10% difference vs Vegas line. I trust data more than I trust gamblers that shift the line in Vegas. Unfortunately, there are very few data points so far this season, so S&P is usually a slow start. Recommend using this to confirm/deny your own pick. Also add in your own home field advantage based on how important that is at a given location.

SPREADS WITH MOST VALUE IF PLAYED AT NEUTRAL SITE
1st - Mississippi State (-9) at Kansas State
2nd - Eastern Michigan (+17) at Purdue
3rd - UConn at Boise State (-31.5)
4th - Utah (-10.5) at Northern Illinois
5th - UL-Monroe at Southern Miss (-5.5)

OTHERS WITH MORE THAN 10% VARIABLE
New Mexico (+35) at Wisconsin
UCLA at Oklahoma (-30.5)
Ball State (+35.5) at Notre Dame
Michigan State at Arizona State (+7)
Colorado (+3.5) at Nebraska
Iowa State at Iowa (-4.5)
Virginia (+6.5) at Indiana
Arkansas (-14.5) at Colorado State
 

The Degenerate Frog

Active Member
Now for Over/Unders with most value based on S&P analytics vs the Vegas Line. Again, early in the season so we still need more data points with first team reps to get these numbers on point (50-60 snaps per team on each side of the ball so far.. vs 1 team), but still it is the best deep analytics system out there.

1st - UNC vs ECU // u60
2nd - Baylol vs UTSA // o51
3rd - AF vs FAU // u65
4th - Penn St vs Pitt // o56.5
5th - Duke vs NW // o48.5

Other with 20% variance or more
Wis vs NM o59
OU vs UCLA u64
ND vs Ball St u62
App St vs UNCC o48.5
CMU vs KU u50
Fresno St vs Minn o47.5
Hawaii vs Rice o70.5
Mem vs Navy o68
Mizzou vs Wyo o52.5
NCSU vs Geo St u57.5
South Miss vs ULM u69
USF vs GT u61.5
Utah vs N Ill u47.5
 

The Degenerate Frog

Active Member
I've got a 3 teamer...Nebraska -4, Pitt +9 and ASU +6
Looks good to me. I like the Nebraska pick with the new Scott Frost show, but I am hesitant to pull the trigger because there is so much $$ on that side. I feel like Vegas is very confident on this on not being a blowout by Nebraska and bullish on CU.
 

MN Frog

Active Member
Looks good to me. I like the Nebraska pick with the new Scott Frost show, but I am hesitant to pull the trigger because there is so much $$ on that side. I feel like Vegas is very confident on this on not being a blowout by Nebraska and bullish on CU.

Yeah I figured home game boys me 3, the crowd will be insane and they will be amped. I actually dont see it close. I think UNL rolls.
 

The Degenerate Frog

Active Member
I know NOTHING about soccer, nor do I watch any soccer outside of the World Cup, but here is where the value is for soccer games. I look for at least 10% difference in value between my mathematical model winning percentage prediction and actual Vegas lines. If there is value, I make the bet. Im showing about 4% ROI on every dollar wagered in long term.

European Cup Soccer Inter Milan (UCL) +172* vs Tottenham (UCL)
European Cup Soccer FC Brugge (UCL) +348*vs Borussia Dortmund (UCL)
European Cup Soccer Crvena zvezda (UCL) +791* vs Napoli (UCL)
European Cup Soccer Draw (Napoli (UCL) vs Crvena zvezda (UCL)) +344* (UCL)
European Cup Soccer Liverpool (UCL) +125* vs PSG (UCL)
European Cup Soccer Galatasaray (UCL) +104*vs Lokomotiv Moscow (UCL)
Brazil Soccer Sport Recife PE (BRA-A) +188*vs Cruzeiro MG (BRA-A)
Spain Soccer Malaga (ESP-2) +106* vs Tenerife (ESP-2)
Spain Soccer Zaragoza (ESP-2) +347* vs Real Oviedo (ESP-2)
USA MLS Soccer New York City (USA-MLS) -146*vs DC United
USA MLS Soccer Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) -229*vs Orlando City
USA MLS Soccer Portland Timbers (USA-MLS) -207*vs Colorado Rapids
 

The Degenerate Frog

Active Member
Here were this mornings games with value. Haven't done the math yet. Could be good or bad. Again.. I couldn't even tell you what league this is... lower level English league maybe?

Spain Soccer 404 Cadiz (ESP-2) +242* vs Mallorca (ESP-2)
England Soccer 702 Bury (ENG-2) -134*vs Grimsby (ENG-2)
England Soccer 704 Carlisle (ENG-2) +286*vs Cambridge (ENG-2)
England Soccer 711 Exeter (ENG-2) +131*vs Notts County (ENG-2)
England Soccer 714 Forest Green (ENG-2) -106*vs Port Vale (ENG-2)
England Soccer 717 Lincoln (ENG-2) -154*vs Crawley Town (ENG-2)
England Soccer 719 Swindon (ENG-2) +150*vs Morecambe (ENG-2)
England Soccer 726 Oldham (ENG-2) +130*vs Newport County (ENG-2)
England Soccer 614 Charlton (ENG-1) +117*vs Wycombe (ENG-1)
England Soccer 617 Doncaster (ENG-1) +150*vs Luton Town (ENG-1)
England Soccer 628 Peterborough (ENG-1) +193*vs Southend (ENG-1)
England Soccer 611 Blackpool (ENG-1) -102*vs Bradford (ENG-1)
England Soccer 620 Gillingham (ENG-1) +188*vs AFC Wimbledon (ENG-1)
England Soccer 623 Portsmouth (ENG-1) -104*vs Shrewsbury (ENG-1)
England Soccer 626 Scunthorpe (ENG-1) +188*vs Rochdale (ENG-1)
England Soccer 632 Sunderland (ENG-1) -109*vs Fleetwood Town (ENG-1)
 
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