• The KillerFrogs

Is CFP really out of the question if we beat OU?

Frogcrates

Frogcrates

Active Member
Ron Swanson said:
I don’t think they would give it to OU over us if we beat them to end the year.

That being said, I’m not holding my breath. I don’t think we are a national championship caliber team this year, and I feel like we are playing with house money anyway. I’m just gonna enjoy it.
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Agree completely. Would be thrilled to win the conference championship. But I’ll be honest (and would love to be proven wrong), the scenario that really scares me is winning the CCG, sneaking into the playoffs after all this time of wanting our chance only to have a bad day and get trounced in that first playoff game. That would do severe damage to chances of getting into the playoffs in future years.
 
TCUownstheBig12

TCUownstheBig12

Active Member
I really think that we have a good chance if...

1 - Alabama wins out
2 - Wisconsin wins out OR loses to Minnesota (essentially eliminating a Big 10 runner-up getting the 4th spot)
3 - Stanford beats Notre Dame
4 - Stanford/Wazzu beats USC

Our biggest challenges (outside of beating OU) are an 11-2 USC, 10-2 Notre Dame, 12-1 Wisconsin, and 11-1/12-1 Alabama (loss to Auburn OR UGa).

Would love some chaos tomorrow to clear the road.
 
Bizarro Frog

Bizarro Frog

Active Member
I still think we are in if we beat OU unless Auburn beats Bama. That would complicate things but I have been operating under the assumption the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 all get one tram in. These playoff rankings are not like the AP Poll where you can’t leap frog lots of teams in one week. That thinking is extinct now but the talking heads don’t realize it. They are just paid to blow hot air.
 
F

FBallFan123

Active Member
Possible.

But it would require real chaos....the kind like #2 Miami losing at Pitt.

Ohio State and Norte Dame losing tomorrow would help.

Clemson too.
 
F

Frog-O-Rama

Full Member
Bizarro Frog said:
I still think we are in if we beat OU unless Auburn beats Bama. That would complicate things but I have been operating under the assumption the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 all get one tram in. These playoff rankings are not like the AP Poll where you can’t leap frog lots of teams in one week. That thinking is extinct now but the talking heads don’t realize it. They are just paid to blow hot air.
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LVH

LVH

Active Member
TCUownstheBig12 said:
I really think that we have a good chance if...

1 - Alabama wins out
2 - Wisconsin wins out OR loses to Minnesota (essentially eliminating a Big 10 runner-up getting the 4th spot)
3 - Stanford beats Notre Dame
4 - Stanford/Wazzu beats USC

Our biggest challenges (outside of beating OU) are an 11-2 USC, 10-2 Notre Dame, 12-1 Wisconsin, and 11-1/12-1 Alabama (loss to Auburn OR UGa).

Would love some chaos tomorrow to clear the road.
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Don't forget UCF. I could see the committee shafting us to claim the system totally isn't biased against G5 teams. They would have no problem sacrificing us but would never put a UCF in over an 11-2 Ohio State
 
FROG PARENTS 1961

FROG PARENTS 1961

Active Member
Planks said:
Not impossible, but would require a lot.


Here’s what needs to happen

Week 13:
Stanford beats Notre Dame
Michigan beats Ohio State
Alabama beats Auburn

CCG week:
TCU beats OU
Stanford/Washington State beats USC
Alabama beats Georgia
Wisconsin beats Ohio State
Clemson beats Miami
Memphis beats UCF

TCU is in the playoff in that scenario. TCU and OU would both be tied for the 4th best record in the country out of the Power 5. Ohio State would now have four losses, so OU’s OOC win over them would no longer be enough of a resume boost to trump TCU’s status as conference champion
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Planks said:
Wisconsin has to win the Big 10 for TCU to have a chance. If Ohio State wins, the the Big 10 might get two in the playoffs (11-2 Ohio State and 12-1 Wisconsin). And even if the Big 10 only gets one in the playoff, a Big 10 champion Ohio State would be a huge resume advantage Oklahoma would have over TCU. TCU has absolutely NOTHING from a OOC standpoint. OU would make it in over TCU, even with TCU being conference champion.
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come on Planks. Both of your lengthy posts are layed out with a bunch of musts and little to nothing you stated is 100% guaranteed if these scenarios that you point to take place. There are not this entire list of who beats who that will determine Frog Fate, but rather variables that assist or hurt our chance that matters. I do not even agree with certain must needs you insist are needed Ohio State needs 2 more losses? what? lol I think some may suffer from the 2014 committee corruption syndrome but don't fear. It is very simple to move UP or down and here is my games of interest during the next 2 week period that will make it or break it for "our dream shot" just like in TOP GUN. You're going to get your dream shot TCU I have to give you your dream shot. I have to send you up against the best. You characters are going to Top Gun. You Horned Frogs are going to the Final Four.
Ok Planks week 13 I agree with some statements you have down
Stanford over 8 Notre Dame (9-2) is GOOD
Mich beats 9 Ohio State (9-2) is GOOD
1 Alabama (11-0) beats 6 Auburn (9-2) is UNDETERMINED 1 team will get another loss is GOOD
other games of F4 interest
24 South Carolina at home beats 3 Clemson (10-1 before game) is GOOD
4 Oklahoma at home beats West Virginia is ALMOST TO A TOTAL MUST
Pittsburgh beats 2 Miami (10-0) is GOOD it is now a fact add a loss to Miami who has not controlled many games 1 loss now (10-1) will drop down in rank
12 TCU (9-2) beat Baylor was a MUST now a fact and ends the reg season 10-2
South Florida would have beat 15 UCF (10-0) would have been GOOD fact UCF won and stays undefeated now 11-0
Georgia Tech beats 7 Georgia (10-1) is GOOD
Minn beats 5 Wisconsin (11-0) is GOOD
17 Wash (9-2) at home beats 13 Wash St. (9-2) is LIKELY GOOD
11 USC 10-2 reg season done awaiting Stanford / Wash St / Wash Stanford winning the division with 3 losses is GOOD
Maryland at home beats 10 PSU (9-2) is GOOD

will lay out championship week soon with more information about the teams still vying for the F4
 
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Purple Cavalier

Purple Cavalier

Active Member
All depends on tomorrow.

Michigan Beats OSU

South Carolina beats Clemson

Stanford beats ND

OU beats WVu

Washington beats WSU

Bama beats Auburn

A bonus for GTech to beat Georgia (won’t happen), but best if Georgia looks bad

Then next week:

We beat OU -and do so with a shut down of BakerM

Bama wins big - embarrasses Georgia

Wisconsin beats OSU

Miami kills Clemson

Stanford beats the other USC


———-

Alabama

Wisconsin

Miami

TCU

Am I missing something. Other than the odds of this are so slim that no one should have their hopes up. There may be other scenarios, but definitely in the two loss scenario we can make it over Georgia and Oklahoma more easily than OSU or USC
 
FROG PARENTS 1961

FROG PARENTS 1961

Active Member
Championship Week Musts to get to the F4 (Final Four)

TCU beats Oklahoma is a MUST (Beat OU)

Myths about TCUs fate

Wisconsin does NOT have to win the BIG Championship
The BIG will ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE 1 or less F4 teams
TCU winning the Big12 Championship ALMOST CERTAINLY ranks TCU ahead of OU, however Ohio State winning out is NOT GOOD and the committees ranking would be UNDETERMINED and rank CONFERENCE CHAMPION AND MOST RECENT GAME (TCU) VS STRENGTH OF OUT OF CONFERENCE SCHEDULE (OU)

Truths and more Myths about the remaining scenarios

PAC12 Stanford / Wash State / Washington div champ beats USC knocks out USC. Stanford has zero chance of F4 Wash and State could get in as conference champions with LOTS OF HELP. USC winning puts them in the mix but NEED HELP

BIG12 could have 0, 1 0r 2 teams in the F4 Having 2 would NEED LOTS OF HELP having TCU ONLY would mean that HELP happens as a conference championship puts the Frogs in the mix.

ACC I'll address this conference now because only 2 teams have a chance of making the F4 but 1 or 0 could be the number depending on who beats who. If Clemson loses at South Carolina and beats Miami the result will be Clemson in the mix and Miami OUT. If Clemson beats SC and Miami beats Clemson in the conference championship both teams are in the mix with Miami VERY LIKELY

SEC did not live up to its recent reputation as the strongest conference. 2 teams could get in or only 1 with 0 EXTREMLEY UNLIKELY Georgia beating Ga Tech this week and winning the CCG GETS THEM IN. If Georgia takes its 2nd loss vs Ga Tech then wins the CCG MOST LIKELY GETS THEM IN of course but makes things messy for the SEC West representative or even a 1 loss Alabama who gets beat by Auburn tomorrow. If Bama beats Auburn that VERY LIKELY puts the Tigers OUT and VERY LIKELY GETS THEM IN EVEN WITH A CCG LOSS. If Bama wins the CCG they are IN at the 1 SEED. If Auburn wins the Iron Bowl Bama slides to IN THE MIX moving on if Auburn then losses to Georgia in the CCG they slide back after sliding up the week before. They would be considered UNLIKELY BUT still nearby the final mix for the F4. Finally if Auburn wins the CCG they are IN and Georgia would SOMEWHAT LIKELY BE IN if they beat Ga Tech.

BIG (also known as Big10) Wisconsin beats both Minn and Ohio State (who is who they want to face in the CCG) They would be VERY LIKELY IN. A loss in either makes them OUT. Ohio State losing to Mich is GOOD and puts them OUTand if they then get into the CCG and beat Wisconsin the BIG IS DEAD 0 TEAMS. No other scenarios matter in the decision of getting a BIG into the F4

Notre Dame last game vs Stanford. A loss means they are OUT. A win puts them in the mix NEEDING HELP.

I will give my final analysis after the week 13 games pertaining to any certainties that now are reducing the field as the week is completed tomorrow. Unless you are in the top 4 now and WIN OUT, all contenders in the mix NEED HELP
 
Bizarro Frog

Bizarro Frog

Active Member
I don’t think we need to fear ND or USC getting into the playoff in front of us if we beat OU. ND suffered a complete blow out loss to team they can’t get revenge on. Same goes for USC. USC is not going to get a boost from beating Stanford or Wash St. They are ranked in front of both.

Think in terms of this - our losses are against a pretty solid team by 7 on the road and against a team that will be ranked 1, 2, or 3 this week. We have a chance to erase that loss over a Top 3 team.
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Bizarro Frog said:
I don’t think we need to fear ND or USC getting into the playoff in front of us if we beat OU. ND suffered a complete blow out loss to team they can’t get revenge on. Same goes for USC. USC is not going to get a boost from beating Stanford or Wash St. They are ranked in front of both.

Think in terms of this - our losses are against a pretty solid team by 7 on the road and against a team that will be ranked 1, 2, or 3 this week. We have a chance to erase that loss over a Top 3 team.
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If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the committee’s thinking, it’s that the type of loss(es) you have don’t matter at all. Lose by double digits to a crappy team at home or lose by 3 on the road to a playoff contender, they don’t care, it’s all about the wins.

I think that’s ridiculous, but it is what it is.
 
Peacefrog

Peacefrog

Degenerate
Frogcrates said:
Agree completely. Would be thrilled to win the conference championship. But I’ll be honest (and would love to be proven wrong), the scenario that really scares me is winning the CCG, sneaking into the playoffs after all this time of wanting our chance only to have a bad day and get trounced in that first playoff game. That would do severe damage to chances of getting into the playoffs in future years.
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The Big 10 hasn't scored a single point in the past two playoff years. They continue to get consideration.
 

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