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Name Brand Bias

Wexahu

Full Member
Look at Tennessee...USC lost on the road to Florida 38-6...then beat Tennessee at home 63-38...margin really doesn't matter.
I remember when Minnesota was a common opponent with a certain team. We played them at home, they played them on the road. Point margin of those games was brought up ad nauseam that year. Interesting.

Amazing how the narrative changes very quickly depending on the end goal.
 

TCUWIN

Active Member
This post reeks of TCU bias. I’m sorry, I don’t care how you want to slant it, there is no way we should be #1 or #2 based on results of games so far. I see you completely ignore scoring margin. Why?

Georgia beat the team that is currently #9 by 46 points, and the team that is currently #10 by 14 points. We beat the team that is #13 by 10. About the same you say? They are beating league opponents by an average of 29 points.

Ohio State beat ND in OOC and is winning their conference games by an average of 18 points more than we are.

Can’t compare conferences. The Big 10 sucks. As someone posted earlier, Big 12’s last place team beat the winner of the Big 10 West. And our strength of schedule is better than the other 3 playoff teams. Can’t compare!!!
 

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Well, ND was ranked #5 at the time, but they absolutely should NOT get credit for beating a Top 5 team, because Notre Dame is not a top 5 team. It doesn't matter what they were ranked at the time the game was played, that's one of the dumbest arguments people make.

Wherever ND ends up ranked is what that win should be judged on. Obviously if ND beats USC Saturday they are going to move up a few spots and that win by OSU looks better than it does now.

And Ohio State shouldn't be ranked higher than based on that one game. They should be ranked higher than us primarily because they have the same record we do but are beating teams by a way larger margin. The Notre Dame wins partially offsets the differences in league schedules to this point. Not that hard to understand, and shouldn't be all that controversial.
I agree in general that you should judge a team’s strength of schedule based on where their opponents rank at the end of the season as opposed to where they ranked when they played them, but not always. For instance, the Oklahoma St we played is way better than the Oklahoma St team right now. You could also argue that the Kansas team we beat was a better team than they are now. On the other end of the spectrum, the OU team we beat is nowhere near as good as current OU. No chance we beat them 55-24 if we played this weekend.

I understand that you can’t sit there and go through every team’s schedule and judge whether they were playing them when they were hot or cold, but it’s absolutely a factor.

Also, with the Big 12’s round robin schedule, our league will naturally end up with fewer ranked teams due to more losses because we cannibalize ourselves.
 

DeuceBoogieNights

Active Member
3 of the top 6 teams in scoring margine this year are Big Ten schools. Is it because they have great offenses or do they get to benefit from playing Rutgers, Iowa, Northwestern and Maryland?
I remember when Minnesota was a common opponent with a certain team. We played them at home, they played them on the road. Point margin of those games was brought up ad nauseam that year. Interesting.

Amazing how the narrative changes very quickly depending on the end goal.

Yeah because it was a common data point... What common data point do we have this season?

You accuse Tcu fans of using data points in their arguments but you're just as guilty. Go ahead and tell me how Penn state is good....
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I agree in general that you should judge a team’s strength of schedule based on where their opponents rank at the end of the season as opposed to where they ranked when they played them, but not always. For instance, the Oklahoma St we played is way better than the Oklahoma St team right now. You could also argue that the Kansas team we beat was a better team than they are now. On the other end of the spectrum, the OU team we beat is nowhere near as good as current OU. No chance we beat them 55-24 if we played this weekend.

I understand that you can’t sit there and go through every team’s schedule and judge whether they were playing them when they were hot or cold, but it’s absolutely a factor.

Also, with the Big 12’s round robin schedule, our league will naturally end up with fewer ranked teams due to more losses because we cannibalize ourselves.
Agree for the most part with all of this.

And I honestly don't know how much it really matters whether a team is ranked #23 or just outside the poll, I guess it would go as another win over a ranked team which is supposedly a big deal but it's not an all-or-nothing game. You're not going to give one team a material edge because they beat #25 and the other one beat #26, so all the "wins over ranked teams" stuff is just another thing for people to talk about and post charts about. I mean, in the case of Baylor and Texas, I'm pretty sure we're getting some props for winning those games because I think they realize those are pretty good teams that we beat on the road, regardless of where they were ranked when we played them. And probably not getting much credit for struggling to beat "ranked at the time" Kansas" or "Top 10 or whatever at the time" Oklahoma State. All things considered I think our ranking is very fair.

All this angst over Michigan being one spot ahead of us is dumb anyway. If they were #4 and we were #3 and we both win our games this week, next week we are going to still be #3 and they'll be #2........in the same place we'd be anyway. Barring us really struggling with Iowa State and USC winning convincingly over Notre Dame or something, then I guess they could keep us at #4 but I doubt that.
 

NewFrogFan

Full Member
It’s as if they have us ranked #10 or something. We are #4.
You are not watching the talking craniums, even scoring margin gets way too much coverage if they are not going to keep using it. Georgia, beotch stomped Oregon to the point Oregon is not a factor until EVERY team near them has the same or worse record. USC has beaten one ranked team, barely, that is 1 loss away from that proverbial 4 loss plateau Finebaum just used to dismiss TCU’s win over Texas that even he predicted would have a different ending the week it was played. If I flew airplanes as bad as some of these dudes predict games, there would be an accident investigation on every leg. Every week it is the SOS.
 
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Wexahu

Full Member
You are not watching the talking craniums, even scoring margin gets way too much coverage if they are not going to keep using it. Georgia, beotch stomped Oregon to the point Oregon is not a factor until EVERY team near them has the same or worse record. USC has beaten one ranked team, barely, that is 1 loss away from that proverbial 4 loss plateau Finebaum just used to dismiss TCU’s win over Texas that even he predicted would have a different ending the week it was played. If I flew airplanes as bad as some of these dudes predict games, there would be an accident investigation on every leg. Every week it is the SOS.
USC has beaten two ranked teams. And now we’re supposedly penalizing them for barely beating them? We are ranked two spots ahead of USC right now. If USC is ranked too high, who should be ahead of them?

I couldn’t give a rats ass what the “talking craniums” say. It doesn’t matter.
 

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Agree for the most part with all of this.

And I honestly don't know how much it really matters whether a team is ranked #23 or just outside the poll, I guess it would go as another win over a ranked team which is supposedly a big deal but it's not an all-or-nothing game. You're not going to give one team a material edge because they beat #25 and the other one beat #26, so all the "wins over ranked teams" stuff is just another thing for people to talk about and post charts about. I mean, in the case of Baylor and Texas, I'm pretty sure we're getting some props for winning those games because I think they realize those are pretty good teams that we beat on the road, regardless of where they were ranked when we played them. And probably not getting much credit for struggling to beat "ranked at the time" Kansas" or "Top 10 or whatever at the time" Oklahoma State. All things considered I think our ranking is very fair.

All this angst over Michigan being one spot ahead of us is dumb anyway. If they were #4 and we were #3 and we both win our games this week, next week we are going to still be #3 and they'll be #2........in the same place we'd be anyway. Barring us really struggling with Iowa State and USC winning convincingly over Notre Dame or something, then I guess they could keep us at #4 but I doubt that.
Completely agree that the wins over ranked teams metric is stupid. You shouldn’t get credit for beating a #25 team but not a #26 team. That’s just an arbitrary line in the sand that was developed however many decades ago. They could’ve decided to have a top 20 or top 30 rankings just as easily.

Maybe a metric that says how highly ranked the average of your top 6 wins were or something would have more value. Determine those rankings by computer models or whatever.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
Completely agree that the wins over ranked teams metric is stupid. You shouldn’t get credit for beating a #25 team but not a #26 team. That’s just an arbitrary line in the sand that was developed however many decades ago. They could’ve decided to have a top 20 or top 30 rankings just as easily.

Maybe a metric that says how highly ranked the average of your top 6 wins were or something would have more value. Determine those rankings by computer models or whatever.
I think the Massey Composite is probably as good a thing out there to use. 50 or so different computer rankings all combined to get a result, and obviously some of the computers weight certain factors way more than others, but it's about as close as you can come to get an average that makes sense. As it stands now.....

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. TCU
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Clemson
8. Penn State
9. LSU
10. USC
and KSU is #11.

Seems SEC weighted but it does have LSU down there at #9. And we are #1 in a few and all the way down to #16 in one, so obviously those computers have some glitches, but there is something in there that is spitting those results out. But the average gets you back to a place that makes sense. And I'm sure this will change over the next couple weeks, will be interesting to see how, especially in USC's case.
 

East Coast

Tier 1
But they beat Northwestern! And Rutgers, and Indiana, and Michigan State, and Toledo, and Arkansa

I agree in general that you should judge a team’s strength of schedule based on where their opponents rank at the end of the season as opposed to where they ranked when they played them, but not always. For instance, the Oklahoma St we played is way better than the Oklahoma St team right now. You could also argue that the Kansas team we beat was a better team than they are now. On the other end of the spectrum, the OU team we beat is nowhere near as good as current OU. No chance we beat them 55-24 if we played this weekend.

I understand that you can’t sit there and go through every team’s schedule and judge whether they were playing them when they were hot or cold, but it’s absolutely a factor.

Also, with the Big 12’s round robin schedule, our league will naturally end up with fewer ranked teams due to more losses because we cannibalize ourselves.
Actually you can judge everyone who is in the top 12 or so's schedule by where their opponents were when they played them WHEN IT IS YOUR DARNING JOB to do so. If you don't want or can't put the time in, don't serve on the committee. It would take me 2 to 3 hours to do it right now.
 

East Coast

Tier 1
Agree for the most part with all of this.

And I honestly don't know how much it really matters whether a team is ranked #23 or just outside the poll, I guess it would go as another win over a ranked team which is supposedly a big deal but it's not an all-or-nothing game. You're not going to give one team a material edge because they beat #25 and the other one beat #26, so all the "wins over ranked teams" stuff is just another thing for people to talk about and post charts about. I mean, in the case of Baylor and Texas, I'm pretty sure we're getting some props for winning those games because I think they realize those are pretty good teams that we beat on the road, regardless of where they were ranked when we played them. And probably not getting much credit for struggling to beat "ranked at the time" Kansas" or "Top 10 or whatever at the time" Oklahoma State. All things considered I think our ranking is very fair.

All this angst over Michigan being one spot ahead of us is dumb anyway. If they were #4 and we were #3 and we both win our games this week, next week we are going to still be #3 and they'll be #2........in the same place we'd be anyway. Barring us really struggling with Iowa State and USC winning convincingly over Notre Dame or something, then I guess they could keep us at #4 but I doubt that.
Number of wins over ranked teams means nothing to me when the folks that are using it as a metric are also ranking the teams. It's the ultimate in gerrymandering.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
Actually you can judge everyone who is in the top 12 or so's schedule by where their opponents were when they played them WHEN IT IS YOUR DARNING JOB to do so. If you don't want or can't put the time in, don't serve on the committee. It would take me 2 to 3 hours to do it right now.
So if USC beats ND and ND drops to #22, Ohio State should still be credited for beating a Top 5 team? But Clemson’s loss should be considered to be to an unranked team since ND was not ranked at the time?

That makes no sense.
 

BleedNPurple

Active Member
I am a long time follower of Killer Frogs, 25 year Season Ticket Holder, MBA grad, and bleed purple. Just wanted to get my loyalties out in front. Doing my own research and looking at statistics, a case should be made that TCU should be ranked #1 or #2 currently. Just keep winning and we will be in, but should be in regardless, just like UGA.

View attachment 12795

Sorted based on Record, the SOS, then SOR. I think this is relatively clear. TCU has the highest SOS and SOR for the unbeaten teams. Best win about the same as everyone, we played more ranked teams at the time than anyone.

SEC teams are propped up by National Bias. You all have been saying that on this board for years. The reason that Georgia, Bama, LSU, Tennessee are ranked this high is because they beat other teams in the SEC that are overrated as well.

Don't want my first post to be so long that nobody reads it. But here you go.
Excellent analysis. We all know this - and once again look how weak the B10 and Pac 12 are. We just need to keep winning. We have 4 more games to go to win the Natl Championship but we won’t get there unless we keep winning. Go Frogs!
 
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