• The KillerFrogs

Name Brand Bias

Endless Purple

Full Member
Margin of victory is a stupid argument or metric as a general rule.

It is only applicable if you dig into the specifics.
1) Type of offense makes a difference. Someone with a fast paced offense has potential to score significantly more points over weaker competition than a time control ground game offense. Thus changing the overall averages.
2) Defensive style can also make a difference. Some are more shut down completely and others are a bend don't break attitude which can also have an impact. What re the head coaches goals.
3) Opponents. A few no defense opponents can skew the average a great deal by simply having two 50 point margins.
4) coach philosophy. Some believe in running up the score and others quickly pull starters.
5) how specific teams match up to their opponents strengths and weaknesses.

That is just a few. Take all that into consideration, then compare margin of victory, and it might have good value.


That said. This year really is not a good one to claim bias against TCU at this point. So far, it sounds reasonable in the rankings. Of course, the final week is the only one that matters and they have shown the committee can completely screw it up in one week.
 

An-Cap Frog

Member
Margin of victory is a stupid argument or metric as a general rule.

It is only applicable if you dig into the specifics.
1) Type of offense makes a difference. Someone with a fast paced offense has potential to score significantly more points over weaker competition than a time control ground game offense. Thus changing the overall averages.
2) Defensive style can also make a difference. Some are more shut down completely and others are a bend don't break attitude which can also have an impact. What re the head coaches goals.
3) Opponents. A few no defense opponents can skew the average a great deal by simply having two 50 point margins.
4) coach philosophy. Some believe in running up the score and others quickly pull starters.
5) how specific teams match up to their opponents strengths and weaknesses.

That is just a few. Take all that into consideration, then compare margin of victory, and it might have good value.


That said. This year really is not a good one to claim bias against TCU at this point. So far, it sounds reasonable in the rankings. Of course, the final week is the only one that matters and they have shown the committee can completely screw it up in one week.

 

Wexahu

Full Member
Illinois is .500 on the road this year...what if they had played 6 road games to this point?
I don't know. They are 2-2 at home and 2-2 on the road in the Big 10. Looking at the scores of the games, you could almost make the argument that they play better on the road. Maybe they'd have another loss, maybe they wouldn't, hard to say for sure.

Not sure what you're getting at. Home/road is about 5-6 points per game, not 20 like some people think. Good teams win at home and on the road, bad teams lose at home and on the road.
 

An-Cap Frog

Member
I don't know. They are 2-2 at home and 2-2 on the road in the Big 10. Looking at the scores of the games, you could almost make the argument that they play better on the road. Maybe they'd have another loss, maybe they wouldn't, hard to say for sure.

Not sure what you're getting at. Home/road is about 5-6 points per game, not 20 like some people think. Good teams win at home and on the road, bad teams lose at home and on the road.
Schedules matter...so many of these "good" teams hardly ever play on the road. I think that we would look at all these 7-4 teams differently if they were all 6-5.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
Oh look here comes Wex with a contrarian view. Imagine that. You are the voice of reason this board so desperately needs. Thank you for keeping everyone in check and abreast of of the Big 10. Such a tired scheissing bit
You know what else is a tired scheissing bit? The "nobody respects us, it's not fair, they are trying to keep us down" bit.
 

HFrog1999

Member
You know what else is a tired scheissing bit? The "nobody respects us, it's not fair, they are trying to keep us down" bit.

Not as tired as the Big 10 is better than the Big 12 bit.

That’s absolutely ridiculous.

We’re the better team in the better conference. You should just learn to enjoy it.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
Schedules matter...so many of these "good" teams hardly ever play on the road. I think that we would look at all these 7-4 teams differently if they were all 6-5.
You act like playing an extra road game means an extra loss for everyone. It doesn't.

I think for the first 8 years of the Big 12, we had a better road conference record than home record. Still might be the case, haven't checked the updated records. Texas Tech and Oklahoma (and I think maybe West Virginia?) were in that same boat too.
 

froginmn

Full Member
The only counter to this would be whether a team sustains key injuries during the season that can dramatically change the potential outcome of its games. I agree that ND had a generous preseason ranking, and didn’t look so great the first half the season but has improved during the course of the season.

Do you think they will beat USC? Isn’t that a home game for ND? That might be helpful to us :)
I'm quite sure that QJ would have liked to have a week where we played Northwestern (or Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland) when he could have healed up. He's played hurt for a few weeks because we need him. We wouldn't need him for 3-4 games in tOSU's schedule.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
Not as tired as the Big 10 is better than the Big 12 bit.

That’s absolutely ridiculous.

We’re the better team in the better conference. You should just learn to enjoy it.
And I never said that the Big 10 is better than the Big 12.

Better team than who?
 

An-Cap Frog

Member
You act like playing an extra road game means an extra loss for everyone. It doesn't.

I think for the first 8 years of the Big 12, we had a better road conference record than home record. Still might be the case, haven't checked the updated records. Texas Tech and Oklahoma (and I think maybe West Virginia?) were in that same boat too.
On average, teams that play 4 road games would have 1 more loss if they played 6 road games. IT'S MATH.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
On average, teams that play 4 road games would have 1 more loss if they played 6 road games. IT'S MATH. Colorado, SMU, West Virginia and Kansas on the road.
That Colorado road game was brutal. Makes our schedule look so much more challenging than if that was a home game.

Ohio State has beaten teams by 11, 33, 56, 31, 39, 44, and 42 points at home. I don't think if any of those games were on the road they would have been losses, maybe you do. So that's the new mantra for this year, huh, number of road games. With little or no context beyond that?
 

An-Cap Frog

Member
That Colorado road game was brutal. Makes our schedule look so much more challenging than if that was a home game.

Ohio State has beaten teams by 11, 33, 56, 31, 39, 44, and 42 points at home. I don't think if any of those games were on the road they would have been losses, maybe you do. So that's the new mantra for this year, huh, number of road games. With little or no context beyond that?
OSU's schedule has to this point not been all that tough. To your point, no but they did struggle against Northwestern on the road. So if one of those home games had been on the road they may not have won. If you don't think that they could lose on the road, then you need to downgrade their wins even more...
 
Last edited:

An-Cap Frog

Member
That Colorado road game was brutal. Makes our schedule look so much more challenging than if that was a home game.

Ohio State has beaten teams by 11, 33, 56, 31, 39, 44, and 42 points at home. I don't think if any of those games were on the road they would have been losses, maybe you do. So that's the new mantra for this year, huh, number of road games. With little or no context beyond that?
Look at Tennessee...USC lost on the road to Florida 38-6...then beat Tennessee at home 63-38...margin really doesn't matter.
 

An-Cap Frog

Member
That Colorado road game was brutal. Makes our schedule look so much more challenging than if that was a home game.

Ohio State has beaten teams by 11, 33, 56, 31, 39, 44, and 42 points at home. I don't think if any of those games were on the road they would have been losses, maybe you do. So that's the new mantra for this year, huh, number of road games. With little or no context beyond that?
Another point is that OSU might be able to win two more road games, but what about the teams that it is playing? All of a sudden they might have only beaten a team or two above .500 if on average everyone had 1 more loss due to the road/win differential.
 
Top