FWST: For the playoff selection committee, TCU’s win against Texas Tech won’t be enough

[TopFrog]

For the playoff selection committee, TCU’s win against Texas Tech won’t be enough

BY Big Steaming Pile

There were some empty seats at kickoff.

TCU’s fog machine was almost too good, as it created a haze that took several minutes to dissipate.

The fly-over before TCU’s game against Texas Tech on Saturday was a B-52 from Louisiana. Couldn’t even get the Blue Angels, or Maverick from Top Gun.

Read more at: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mac-engel/article268231127.html#storylink=cpy

 

[East Coast]

After those first 3 snarky lines, why would anyone not a TCU hater want to read that?

 

[RollToad]

Did not read, did not click.

 

[HToady]

Man this guy HATES us. Hates our school ( school rankings) hates our football team, hates our alum and students,and now hates hypnotoad. His life must be miserable!

 

[DirtyJerseyFrog]

Why is this guy such a miserable individual? Does anyone know what happened in his past to make him this way?

 

[Relic]

I think the article - which is clearly tongue-in-cheek - is spot on...

 

[Bonner4Prez]

A new low, even for Muck

 

[y2kFrog]

I’m sure a non win against Georgia would look great on our resume.

 

[Frognosticator]

You guys trashing the article are idiots. It’s clearly tongue-in-cheek, and he’s really making fun of the committee.

 

[frogetaboutit]

Tongue in cheek but he’s still a dick.

 

[BleedNPurple]

Actually one of Muck's best articles - very pro TCU. Here's his summation -

TCU scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to take the lead, and blow it open. By any metric or rational measurable, TCU is one of the best teams in the nation at this point in the season. This is an undefeated team in a power-five conference. That should be enough, and we all know it isn’t because of the name on the jersey. “You have to play it all out,” Dykes said. “At times we’ve been really good, and at times, like today, pretty average. You are going to have to win some games when you don’t play your best.” All of it can change, and it will, but what will not change is how the selection committee treats TCU. TCU’s only chance is to be perfectly perfect.

Read more at: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mac-engel/article268231127.html#storylink=cpy

 

[HornyWartyToad]

Tongue in cheek but he’s still a dick.

So, dick in cheek? NTTAWWT

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

Actually one of Muck's best articles - very pro TCU. Here's his summation -

TCU scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to take the lead, and blow it open. By any metric or rational measurable, TCU is one of the best teams in the nation at this point in the season. This is an undefeated team in a power-five conference. That should be enough, and we all know it isn’t because of the name on the jersey. “You have to play it all out,” Dykes said. “At times we’ve been really good, and at times, like today, pretty average. You are going to have to win some games when you don’t play your best.” All of it can change, and it will, but what will not change is how the selection committee treats TCU. TCU’s only chance is to be perfectly perfect.

Read more at: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mac-engel/article268231127.html#storylink=cpy

I think the name on the jersey thing is overblown, tbh. I think pre-season expectations are a bigger deal. We were coming off a poor season and were off everyone's radar. Teams starting outside of the top 25 always have a longer road to hoe. The other issue is that our "Las Vegas" metrics (for lack of a better term) are lagging. A lot of voters and pundits are bettors and they know how Vegas perceives a team, and I think that gets underestimated in the analysis. We have been fighting an uphill perception battle more because of those two factors than some sort of brand bias.

 

[LVH]

I think the name on the jersey thing is overblown, tbh. I think pre-season expectations are a bigger deal. We were coming off a poor season and were off everyone's radar. Teams starting outside of the top 25 always have a longer road to hoe. The other issue is that our "Las Vegas" metrics (for lack of a better term) are lagging. A lot of voters and pundits are bettors and they know how Vegas perceives a team, and I think that gets underestimated in the analysis. We have been fighting an uphill perception battle more because of those two factors than some sort of brand bias.

As someone who has an idea on how the "Las Vegas" metrics work... variables like talent composites, recruiting rankings and preseason expectations are still factored into those models. I understand why - they do provide predicative values with low enough P-Values to be included into any model, but models are not perfect, and I think we have shown this year to overperform expectations a model sets - talent composities, recruiting rankings and preseason expectations are not predicative in terms of our team specifically. On a macro level sure, but not team by team.

 

[BrewingFrog]

As someone who has an idea on how the "Las Vegas" metrics work... variables like talent composites, recruiting rankings and preseason expectations are still factored into those models. I understand why - they do provide predicative values with low enough P-Values to be included into any model, but models are not perfect, and I think we have shown this year to overperform expectations a model sets - talent composities, recruiting rankings and preseason expectations are not predicative in terms of our team specifically. On a macro level sure, but not team by team.

How many of those models have long latency? Like, using player metrics from last year for example?

 

[Wexahu]

I think the name on the jersey thing is overblown, tbh. I think pre-season expectations are a bigger deal. We were coming off a poor season and were off everyone's radar. Teams starting outside of the top 25 always have a longer road to hoe. The other issue is that our "Las Vegas" metrics (for lack of a better term) are lagging. A lot of voters and pundits are bettors and they know how Vegas perceives a team, and I think that gets underestimated in the analysis. We have been fighting an uphill perception battle more because of those two factors than some sort of brand bias.

I don't disagree, but with every passing week that dissipates. Just keep winning.

As has been said here about a zillion times, people make WAY too big a deal out of Week 10 or 11 or 12 CFP rankings. They are almost totally meaningless. And the fact that they say we have a 16% chance of making the playoffs right now is 100% indicative of the fact that they don't think we can win from here on out. It has almost nothing to do with the fact that IF we win, how will the committee perceive us. Win these next two and that goes to about 70% I would bet. Heck, we are 7 point underdogs this week.

 

[Frognosticator]

I don't disagree, but with every passing week that dissipates. Just keep winning.

As has been said here about a zillion times, people make WAY too big a deal out of Week 10 or 11 or 12 CFP rankings. They are almost totally meaningless. And the fact that they say we have a 16% chance of making the playoffs right now is 100% indicative of the fact that they don't think we can win from here on out. It has almost nothing to do with the fact that IF we win, how will the committee perceive us. Win these next two and that goes to about 70% I would bet. Heck, we are 7 point underdogs this week.

You have a good point here, and its because there is no Big Dog in the Big XII anymore. OU is 2-4 and out, 5 teams are 6-3. Baylor can screw everything up because they play KSU, TCU and UT in the last three games. scheissing Kansas is going to a bowl game.

The Big XII is actually really wide open, except for us, who should be guaranteed in the Big XII championship if we beat UT this weekend. And we were picked 7th.

 

[Wexahu]

You have a good point here, and its because there is no Big Dog in the Big XII anymore. OU is 2-4 and out, 5 teams are 6-3. Baylor can screw everything up because they play KSU, TCU and UT in the last three games. scheissing Kansas is going to a bowl game.

The Big XII is actually really wide open, except for us, who should be guaranteed in the Big XII championship if we beat UT this weekend. And we were picked 7th.

IS it true that if we just win one more game (any of them) we have clinched a spot in the CCG?

With Texas, KSU and Baylor all playing each other yet that would seem to be the case but is my math wrong?

 

[West Coast Johnny]

IS it true that if we just win one more game (any of them) we have clinched a spot in the CCG?

With Texas, KSU and Baylor all playing each other yet that would seem to be the case but is my math wrong?

Yes, that is true. Since Baylor and Texas play each other at the end of November, it means we will own enough tie breakers to get into the CCG.

 

[JogginFrog]

IS it true that if we just win one more game (any of them) we have clinched a spot in the CCG?

With Texas, KSU and Baylor all playing each other yet that would seem to be the case but is my math wrong?

Assuming this site is correct (current TCU odds of 99% chance of making CCG), I'd say yes.