FWST: TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor’s future as Power 5 schools depends on ESPN, Fox and Big Ten

[HG73]

The ACC GOR runs for another 10 years, IIRC. That is, if the ACC remains as a legal entity. The loss of four Conference members may drop them below some magical number, and Poof! The Conference no longer exists, and the GOR revert back to their institutions with the dissolution. Don't have any idea if that is even a possibility, but if it is, then it is in the calculus for the SEC.

They may have made a solemn vow to A&M about not bringing another Texas program onboard, but they have since demonstrated their fidelity and honor. Florida and others might just get ready for some in-State company.

I like to think that they would keep things at 4 Power Conferences for the present. In the end, they are really looking for compelling content, and having Regional rivalries across the Nation keeps the locals interested. I know this is Old Thinking, but those matchups still have to carry some weight.

Also, with 22 potential members, isn't the B1G a little large? Are they going to shed some dead wood?

You mean about a third of their conference?

 

[asleep003]

Being the 3rd best league is meaningless if only the Top 2 leagues are relevant when it comes to national relevance, postseason access, and prime TV slots.

Agree with the concept of sounding like SMU trying to wishcast their way into the Big 12. "Here's how Bernie can still win" vibes abound.

Think one has to understand that the Big12 has 3 Top 25 Metro pop. markets(including #s 4 and 5) and could very easily add another 6 Top 25 metro markets during it's next expansion.

That league is very capable of producing programs at the Level of the "Super" league franchises. It is very conceivable that if the ESPN/FOX ownership chooses to ignore the 3rd league, that a major Contributor(s) sees the value of such an expanded 3rd league.

And let's not diminish any of the additional 6-7 markets ... anymore than those of BIG's recent choices of Rutgers/Maryland's college football markets.

 

[LisaLT]

how is that different from the metroplex, houston, the bay area or so cal?

Unlike those markets - there is no real major university playing football in a power 5 conference to even care about. Rutgers is Jersey. UConn is basketball only (for the most part). There is no one in NY. And keep in mind Syracuse is upstate NY, and certainly not a football powerhouse even if they pull they occasional upset. Those other markets you mention all have college football watching fans.

Keep in mind too, that for many years, So Cal had NO pro football team. College football at USC and UCLA was it. Kinda the reverse situation. Bay area is really spread out and has many universities and pro teams. I think way more than the NY metro area.

 

[TopFrog]

Think one has to understand that the Big12 has 3 Top 25 Metro pop. markets(including #s 4 and 5) and could very easily add another 6 Top 25 metro markets during it's next expansion.

That league is very capable of producing programs at the Level of the "Super" league franchises. It is very conceivable that if the ESPN/FOX ownership chooses to ignore the 3rd league, that a major Contributor(s) sees the value of such an expanded 3rd league.

And let's not diminish any of the additional 6-7 markets ... anymore than those of BIG's recent choices of Rutgers/Maryland's college football markets.

Agree. Good TV markets and large fan bases.

 

[East Coast]

How so? Basically the state university of New Jersey with over 60k students. You can’t be comparing DFW with the tri state area tv audience of NYC?

I live in NJ and while Rutgers does have 60K students they are spread over multiple campuses. Rutgers does have a decent fan base, but it is pretty comparable to ours. College sports are not that big a deal in the tri state area, and it does not have "a team". Closest to that are Penn State in football and St. Johns in basketball. Now it does give alums of Big 10 universities a way to combine a trip to NYC with a football game, so there is that.

 

[East Coast]

The value of Rutgers to the B10 was all about the NYC market and it had nothing to do with actual viewership. It didn't matter if 0 New Yorkers were actually watching Rutgers football, having them in their footprint allowed for the B10 Network to be mass distributed in lower tier cable and satellite packages in the NYC area, thereby resulting in slightly higher costs for those packages which resulted in revenue for the network and the conference. In a city as massive as New York, those tiny little additional fees that more cable and satellite customers had to pay (whether they were watching the B10 Network or not) was worth millions.

You could make the argument that TCU could bring the same type of value to the BIG for the same reasons. The 2 drawbacks to that argument are that as large as the DFW market is, it still pales in comparison to NYC so the money wouldn't be as large and also as the television landscape changes over the coming years the old constructs that resulted in Rutgers becoming valuable may not matter as much 5-10 years from now. So I don't think the Rutgers model for BIG membership could actually be correctly applied to TCU.

Big 10 Network was already on most of not all NY metro cable networks as part of their sports package BEFORE Rutgers joined. That's exactly where it is placed now so no change.

 

[BrewingFrog]

You mean about a third of their conference?

I was told there would be no math...

 

[Creeperfrog]

Lvh - your opinions seem all doom and glume. We can't change what is happening, so I wouldn't pee on everything good that we have.

At the very least, we will be in the 3rd best conference in Merica. We aren't in the 5th or the 8th best conference.

If it does become power 2, I don't think you can completely ignore the top 5 conferences

 

[Virginia Frog]

I think that is a great point. TCU in the BIG TEN would change TCU’s dynamic in DFW and Texas. It would be offering something unique, worth going to the game for or turning on the TV to see BIG TEN teams playing a Texas school in Texas, OR on the road in the BIG TEN. We currently don’t have that uniqueness in the Big 12.

I can't wait until Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, et.al. come to the Carter - Man, that'll get DFWs attention.

Outside OSU, Michigan, State Penn, USC, and maybe Wisky or UCLA, The BIG is a bit of an empty suit.IMO.

All this acclaim and cash for a conference that is NOT the SEC! Doesn't make logical sense to me.

 

[geezer]

The value of Rutgers to the B10 was all about the NYC market and it had nothing to do with actual viewership. It didn't matter if 0 New Yorkers were actually watching Rutgers football, having them in their footprint allowed for the B10 Network to be mass distributed in lower tier cable and satellite packages in the NYC area, thereby resulting in slightly higher costs for those packages which resulted in revenue for the network and the conference. In a city as massive as New York, those tiny little additional fees that more cable and satellite customers had to pay (whether they were watching the B10 Network or not) was worth millions.

You could make the argument that TCU could bring the same type of value to the BIG for the same reasons. The 2 drawbacks to that argument are that as large as the DFW market is, it still pales in comparison to NYC so the money wouldn't be as large and also as the television landscape changes over the coming years the old constructs that resulted in Rutgers becoming valuable may not matter as much 5-10 years from now. So I don't think the Rutgers model for BIG membership could actually be correctly applied to TCU.

Interesting conversation on ESPN XM radio show today.

Sobering fact thrown out was that the B10 rights package (including USC + UCLA) will mean $100 million per year per school.

The talking heads concluded that be to in contention to join the B10 party, a school would have to prove it would bring in an additional $101 million/year.

Does that sound like TCU?

 

[Virginia Frog]

Well, that's the thing: The NYC Media Market is the undisputed #1, but it is hardly monolithic in it's viewing habits. The vast majority of Big Apple denizens could care less about Rutgers. Yes, it is in this majestic market, but they can't draw flies even in their own neighborhood. And still, no one cares if Michigan or tOSU is beating the living crap out of them. This is the fallacy of the Big TV Market: There is no guarantee that those in proximity have any interest.

There's always been a lot of talk about the Big's acquisition of Rutgers (subname: The State University of NJ) and that was a bogus effort to "get" the NY City market.

I think that a lot of that criticism is valid and it's a true that RU doesn't "bring" NYC eyeballs per-se. What is always lost in the conversation is that the state of NJ is #11 population n America - nearly 9 million in 2022 - and by far the densest state. And being so small geographically, NJ people state-wide are interested in RU's sports fate. (What exit do you live off of? is the number #1 question people there have for each other (NJ Turnpike.)

So bring in RU was far from a fail for the BIG.

 

[DirtyJerseyFrog]

I live in NJ and while Rutgers does have 60K students they are spread over multiple campuses. Rutgers does have a decent fan base, but it is pretty comparable to ours. College sports are not that big a deal in the tri state area, and it does not have "a team". Closest to that are Penn State in football and St. Johns in basketball. Now it does give alums of Big 10 universities a way to combine a trip to NYC with a football game, so there is that.

I live in NJ too. Nice to see fellow Frogs in the Garden State. Agreed totally with the above as well.

 

[tetonfrog]

The biggest thing we can sell is the D/FW market.

The recruiting area here is awesome, but getting the top recruits to go north is a whole lot easier when a coach can tell a recruit from the inner city, “Don’t worry about missing your family & friends, just use your NIL $ & fly them up to see you play every weekend!”

And then the next thing will be the schools flying their family & friends up for free on the new school charter flight program.

TCU’s #1 priority should be getting a spot in the 3rd Superconference & making sure it is never eliminated. Who cares if we have to go in the road for a opening round playoff game? A special, undefeated TCU team would have a great chance to pull off an upset.

Do you think the Rose or Peach Bowl teams would have been scared playing Oregon or Ohio State those years? Of course not & our chance of pulling off an “upset” would be strong.

 

[ticketfrog123]

The biggest thing we can sell is the D/FW market.

The recruiting area here is awesome, but getting the top recruits to go north is a whole lot easier when a coach can tell a recruit from the inner city, “Don’t worry about missing your family & friends, just use your NIL $ & fly them up to see you play every weekend!”

And then the next thing will be the schools flying their family & friends up for free on the new school charter flight program.

TCU’s #1 priority should be getting a spot in the 3rd Superconference & making sure it is never eliminated. Who cares if we have to go in the road for a opening round playoff game? A special, undefeated TCU team would have a great chance to pull off an upset.

Do you think the Rose or Peach Bowl teams would have been scared playing Oregon or Ohio State those years? Of course not & our chance of pulling off an “upset” would be strong.

We have a spot in the 3rd super conference. Depending on if USC blocks Oregon it’s just a matter of who the big 12 invites.

Clemson / FSU are going to the SEC. Everybody else is scrambling to figure out where they end up.

 

[ticketfrog123]

Interesting conversation on ESPN XM radio show today.

Sobering fact thrown out was that the B10 rights package (including USC + UCLA) will mean $100 million per year per school.

The talking heads concluded that be to in contention to join the B10 party, a school would have to prove it would bring in an additional $101 million/year.

Does that sound like TCU?

I don’t think UVA brings $100mm but they’re in the discussion for big ten.

Obviously, half the big ten is nearly worthless from a brand perspective with Illinois, Purdue, northwestern in there. Don’t think minnesota or Maryland are close to that value either.

 

[Virginia Frog]

I don’t think UVA brings $100mm but they’re in the discussion for big ten.

Obviously, half the big ten is nearly worthless from a brand perspective with Illinois, Purdue, northwestern in there. Don’t think minnesota or Maryland are close to that value either.

And Virginia Tech football has beaten UVa 9 out of the last ten tries.

How can ANYONE say UVa is more deserving to "move up" over VT. Oh yeah, it's about "markets"

I live in a big population area in No Va, more than 1/3 of the state. You see VT gear everywhere - UVa not so much. There are many more (interested) VT eyeballs in Virginia. (For applicants.matriculants UVa is the egghead choice, VT is the "cool" choice!)

Who's making these judgements? Very uninformed people I'd bet.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Lvh - your opinions seem all doom and glume. We can't change what is happening, so I wouldn't pee on everything good that we have.

At the very least, we will be in the 3rd best conference in Merica. We aren't in the 5th or the 8th best conference.

If it does become power 2, I don't think you can completely ignore the top 5 conferences

Glume
In botany, a glume is a bract below a spikelet in the inflorescence of grasses or the flowers of sedges.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

DFW is the 5th largest media market. The DFW area watches college football. Rutgers has never been good at college athletics and no one cares about them in New jersey or NYC.

True enough. NYC is at the top. Perhaps not the biggest college football viewing area, but then again DFW isn’t killing it either ranked as #37.

 

[CountryFrog]

Big 10 Network was already on most of not all NY metro cable networks as part of their sports package BEFORE Rutgers joined. That's exactly where it is placed now so no change.

Not going to get into the weeds of dozens or even hundreds of various cable and satellite providers but this is the reason why Rutgers was added. Did it have the exact same effect for every single individual provider? Obviously not. To act like ALL the providers were doing the exact same thing before and/or after the change would be wrong. But without this then there would've been no actual value provided by adding Rutgers.

 

[YA]

True enough. NYC is at the top. Perhaps not the biggest college football viewing area, but then again DFW isn’t killing it either ranked as #37.

#37 what? DFW is #5 media market