• The KillerFrogs

2018 TCU BASEBALL SEASON THREAD

Pharm Frog

Full Member
so basically we are getting more meaningless hits this year...which seems about right. Earlier this year, we had a good run where we were putting together 2 out rallies like we did last year a lot - but definitely feels like we have gotten a lot more hits this year where we couldn't get the runner around.

wonder what our LOB is this year vs last?

Okay, recognizing the LOB is a tricky metric since many potent offenses leave a high number on base because a lot actually get on base. On a per game basis...

2017 Frogs left 7.53 runners on base (opponents stranded 6.87) -- difference of .66 runners per game
2018 (to date) Frogs leave 8.24 runners on base (opponents stranding 7.82) -- difference of .42 runners per game

I think another explanation may be in the extra base hit arena

2017 Frogs hit doubles in 5% of their ABs compared to 2018 Frogs hitting them at 4%
Triples are rare enough to not really matter as much IMO but 2018 Frogs are slightly ahead of per-game pace than 2017 at .7% of ABs v .5% of ABs.
2017 Frogs hit home runs in 2.5% of their ABs compared to the 2018 Frogs at 1.9% (.85 per game v .64 per game). And this is with the recent power surge or it would be an even greater differential

And a lot of this shows up in the slugging percentage: 2017 at .402 with 2018 at .381. We just aren't getting as many bases per AB.

Also, the Sac Fly may be instructive:
2017 Frogs averaged .47 sac flies per game...2018 is seeing .35

But you can't hit sac flies unless you move runners around. And....check out the stolen base differences:

2017 Frogs averaged 1.92 SBs per game and were caught stealing 18% of the attempts (mostly picked off variety)
2018 Frogs averaging 1.44 SBs per game and are being caught 25% of the time
 

FrogsMcGee

Active Member
We sit at .5421 = 63rd as of today. SFA scenarios, all else equal:
W = +.0014 = .5435 = 63rd
L = -.0041 = .5380 = 70th

Very little to gain there and wouldn't surprise me if this game is nixed. Also doesnt hurt us as long as we win. As of today, the Texas series still looms very large and we have a decent RPI ceiling. Assuming we don't play SFA:
3-0: +.0127 = .5548 = 47th
2-1: +.0076 = .5497 = 58th
1-2: +.0023 = .5444 = 63rd
0-3: -.0031 = .5390 = 70th

Those figures will shift slightly with other games this week, but give you a general sense of the potential. Even with a sweep, I think we would need a very strong showing in the conf tournament to get to 40 or better in RPI for an at large bid. Otherwise, need to win the conf tourney.
 

Sebastian S

Active Member
For coach, playing SFA is about playing time. This group needs it.

If we need to win or go deep in the tournament, might as well get extra real game "practice".
 

Pharm Frog

Full Member
For coach, playing SFA is about playing time. This group needs it.

If we need to win or go deep in the tournament, might as well get extra real game "practice".

Would think it would have already been canceled if it was gonna be. This from 1 hr ago



But with Balta out and Hump looking like the season has worn him down (not surprising given his workload this year), I don't know if the team really "needs" practice and travel time. I do expect that the players want to play because players want to play. I don't know what we could accomplish at SFA that we couldn't accomplish with a fungo and BP.
 

Paint It Purple

Active Member
Would think it would have already been canceled if it was gonna be. This from 1 hr ago



But with Balta out and Hump looking like the season has worn him down (not surprising given his workload this year), I don't know if the team really "needs" practice and travel time. I do expect that the players want to play because players want to play. I don't know what we could accomplish at SFA that we couldn't accomplish with a fungo and BP.

Would think it would have already been canceled if it was gonna be. This from 1 hr ago



But with Balta out and Hump looking like the season has worn him down (not surprising given his workload this year), I don't know if the team really "needs" practice and travel time. I do expect that the players want to play because players want to play. I don't know what we could accomplish at SFA that we couldn't accomplish with a fungo and BP.

Balta said it. The things players remember are, "teammates and even the long bus rides." This team, at this point has nothing to lose. They need the long bus ride and a week on the road together. Play SFA. Win. Go to Austin, and play with no fear and play for each other. Have fun. No guts, no glory. Go play. (Or, they could stay at home. Hit fungos and take BP.)
 

Sebastian S

Active Member
I say play it.

The pessimist in me says they can't just magically get it together and win the tournament so might as well play every game you can, for the seniors.

Hope I am wrong.

How is the tournament bracket looking? 4th-5th in the conference our ceiling?

I am hoping they make it to the weekend so we can go up and watch.
 
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Sebastian S

Active Member
Most of our basketball games were televised anyways, our baseball team needs to find more ways to broadcast their games besides frogvision.

Some schools offer that for free or even a game pass for like $7.
 

boonecountyman

Active Member
Most of our basketball games were televised anyways, our baseball team needs to find more ways to broadcast their games besides frogvision.

Some schools offer that for free or even a game pass for like $7.
WVU offers all home events free and the camera work is usually very good.All it takes is a sponsor to provide the funding.You can watch events on Apple TV and ROKU free also.I have a ROKU streaming stick and it is great.One time fee for the stick.Many college teams can be seen thru ROKU.I think this is the way the B12 may be headed come contract time.
 

Casey T

Full Member
In the event we sweep UT and win a few in the B12 tourney, and the final spot is between us and a few teams with similar statistics, I like our odds based on the brand name we've built. 4 straight CWS, equivalent of 4 straight Elite 8. Might be time for another school to complain about us getting the brand name bias
 

FrogsMcGee

Active Member
Currently .5436 and 63rd. Texas scenarios updated post-SFA:
3-0: +.0125 = .5561 (47th)
2-1: +.0075 = .5511 (55th)
1-2: +.0024 = .5460 (60th)
0-3: -.0028 = .5408 (66th)
 

flyfishingfrog

Active Member
Currently .5436 and 63rd. Texas scenarios updated post-SFA:
3-0: +.0125 = .5561 (47th)
2-1: +.0075 = .5511 (55th)
1-2: +.0024 = .5460 (60th)
0-3: -.0028 = .5408 (66th)
47th and more than 1/2 games in the tournament may get us in on reputation.

Not sure 55th has any shot unless they committee just changes their traditional approach - anyone know of someone that high getting in before without the conference championship slot?
 

FrogsMcGee

Active Member
47th and more than 1/2 games in the tournament may get us in on reputation.

Not sure 55th has any shot unless they committee just changes their traditional approach - anyone know of someone that high getting in before without the conference championship slot?

Problem with only 1-2 wins in conf tournament is it means we either go 1-2 or 2-2, and our RPI likely goes down. I think we need to have at least 3 wins in conf tournament even if we sweep Texas. Can’t see sub-50 getting an at large.

Anyone know what WVU was in RPI a few years ago when they made tournament final and lost to us, and were among the first 4 out? Edit - 2016 they were 54th with 36 wins.
 

flyfishingfrog

Active Member
Problem with only 1-2 wins in conf tournament is it means we either go 1-2 or 2-2, and our RPI likely goes down. I think we need to have at least 3 wins in conf tournament even if we sweep Texas. Can’t see sub-50 getting an at large.

Anyone know what WVU was in RPI a few years ago when they made tournament final and lost to us, and were among the first 4 out? Edit - 2016 they were 54th with 36 wins.
That was my point - we need more than 1 or 2 wins with a 47 RPI to make it historically

We will see but I still feel like a sweep this weekend is a big ask and winning the tournament is probably our only realistic path
 
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