• The KillerFrogs

Diehards: TCU opens as 23.5-point favorite over Baylor

Jet Set Frog

Full Member
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TxFrog1999

The Man Behind The Curtain
We get Howard and Morris back, so the defense will do their thing and shut the Bears down. Not worried. The big question will be if the short week is enough time for Hill to clear the concussion protocol so he’s able to get some practice time in before Friday.
 

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Might be a little high given our injuries and the rivalry aspect of this game. BU has been able to hang close with OU and a few others even though losing.

It should be about 26 based on the computer rankings, but I’m guessing they took all the injuries and unknowns into consideration, which is why it’s only 23.5
 

Purp

Active Member
It should be about 26 based on the computer rankings, but I’m guessing they took all the injuries and unknowns into consideration, which is why it’s only 23.5
Yeah, there was quite a bit of concern over our injuries that they valued at about 8.5 points and then the rivalry aspect took it down another 8 just b/c this is the biggest rivalry in college football. So from 26 points as a starting point it went down quickly to under 10 points. Then, after accounting for the fact that they're going to give us their best effort of the season Baylor actually got another 14 points and became the favorite by 4.5.

But then the Baylor sucks factor was considered and, worth 21 points by itself, that took the Frogs back to a heavy favorite at 16.5. After finally accounting for karma (another TD) the line settled at the Frogs being 23.5 point favorites.

It's crazy what they take into account in Vegas putting these lines together.
 

VA Froggie

Active Member
Yeah, there was quite a bit of concern over our injuries that they valued at about 8.5 points and then the rivalry aspect took it down another 8 just b/c this is the biggest rivalry in college football. So from 26 points as a starting point it went down quickly to under 10 points. Then, after accounting for the fact that they're going to give us their best effort of the season Baylor actually got another 14 points and became the favorite by 4.5.

But then the Baylor sucks factor was considered and, worth 21 points by itself, that took the Frogs back to a heavy favorite at 16.5. After finally accounting for karma (another TD) the line settled at the Frogs being 23.5 point favorites.

It's crazy what they take into account in Vegas putting these lines together.
Would you repeat that please.....
 

Ron Swanson

Full Member
So if you saw this line as a dispassionate gambler, what would you do?

I don’t know, because you have to factor in that Baylor is much improved over the first half of the year, so I feel like their computer ratings might be a little negatively skewed from where they’re currently playing.

I have no idea what to make of this game. I could see us blowing them out or winning a tight one.
 

Pharm Frog

Full Member
It would be completely be in character for me as a non-gambler but I'm thinking I wouldn't go anywhere near this game with my money. I've been keeping a list of games this season to see how I would have done if I'd put money down on certain games. As of this week I'm very slightly to the winning side (and by slightly I mean negligibly over and probably would be down if I had to pay someone to place the bets -- not sure how that works).
 

Purp

Active Member
I don’t know, because you have to factor in that Baylor is much improved over the first half of the year, so I feel like their computer ratings might be a little negatively skewed from where they’re currently playing.

I have no idea what to make of this game. I could see us blowing them out or winning a tight one.
I see this one going more like the Tech game except I think our offense moves the ball a little better, especially if Kenny is back. I just don't see their offense getting much going. They are playing better than they did to start the season, but they are not very good so I don't think that will matter much.
 

FrogAbroad

Full Member
TCU -20 on a neutral field. Playing at AGCS, -3; DA's absence, +7; SR's lack of experience, +3. All of that yields TCU -13. If offered TCU -23.5 take Baylol.
 

y2kFrog

Active Member
They did lose to Tech by 2 TD's (with a late garbage time TD). I seriously doubt they will be able to score more then 7 on our D.
 
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