• The KillerFrogs

Did we act like whiny sore winner [hundinnen ] after winning the Rose Bowl like UCF fans have been doing?

Wexahu

Full Member
A 5% chance of making a 4-team playoff, coupled with a 10% chance of winning 2 games equals a 0.5% chance of winning a NC under a 4-team format.

A 100% chance of making an 8-team playoff, coupled with a 1% chance of winning 3 games equals a 1.0% chance of winning a NC under an 8-team format.

So an 8-team format, using your numbers, doubles a G5’s chance of winning a NC.

Math.

Yes, it does. But it much more measurably improves the odds that the Alabamas and Ohio States ultimately win. That's my point.

Whether the G5s odds are .5% or 1%....they aren't going to be winning.
 

YA

Active Member
Some people no matter what you show/tell them are never going to change their minds because it isn't in their DNA to admit they are ever wrong.
 

PurplFrawg

Administrator
Some people no matter what you show/tell them are never going to change their minds because it isn't in their DNA to admit they are ever wrong.
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Uncle_Frog

Active Member
I'm fine with that, but I'd bet everything I own that a G5 team wouldn't win a championship in that format in my lifetime unless the current conference structure in college football is changed.

I would be willing to bet significant money that either 2004 Utah, 2006 Boise State, 2008 Utah (beat Bama btw), 2009 Boise State, 2009 TCU, 2010 TCU, 2015 Houston, or 2017 UCF would have been able to win it all.

That's 8 teams that would have had a legit shot in the last 14 years so I'm certain you would see more than one in your lifetime.
 
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I would be willing to bet significant money that either 2004 Utah, 2006 Boise State, 2008 Utah (beat Bama btw), 2009 Boise State, 2009 TCU, 2010 TCU, 2015 Houston, or 2017 UCF would have been able to win it all.

That's 8 teams and that would have had a legit shot and that's just in the last 14 years so I'm certain you would see more than one in your lifetime.
Left off 2014 TCU. Probably the best odds of any of them. Lightning in a bottle that year.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I would be willing to bet significant money that either 2004 Utah, 2006 Boise State, 2008 Utah (beat Bama btw), 2009 Boise State, 2009 TCU, 2010 TCU, 2015 Houston, or 2017 UCF would have been able to win it all.

That's 8 teams and that would have had a legit shot and that's just in the last 14 years so I'm certain you would see more than one in your lifetime.

First of all, I disagree with you but there's no way to prove it so let's just agree to disagree. Winning three games is WAY harder than winning one.

Secondly though, since the conference realignment in 2012, IMO there is a substantially greater difference between the haves (P5s) and the have-nots (G5s) than prior. I can't really put my finger on exactly why (other than the breakdown of the Mountain West, which was far and away the best "non P5" conference, but there is such a significant divide now it seems. Maybe as a TCU fan seeing it from the other side just makes it seem wider now, I don't know, but I don't think this UCF team compares at all to those TCU and Boise teams of 2008-2010. Houston 2015? Meh, they weren't going to run through two more games against Clemson and Bama.
 

Chieves

Active Member
First of all, I disagree with you but there's no way to prove it so let's just agree to disagree. Winning three games is WAY harder than winning one.

Secondly though, since the conference realignment in 2012, IMO there is a substantially greater difference between the haves (P5s) and the have-nots (G5s) than prior. I can't really put my finger on exactly why (other than the breakdown of the Mountain West, which was far and away the best "non P5" conference, but there is such a significant divide now it seems. Maybe as a TCU fan seeing it from the other side just makes it seem wider now, I don't know, but I don't think this UCF team compares at all to those TCU and Boise teams of 2008-2010. Houston 2015? Meh, they weren't going to run through two more games against Clemson and Bama.

The new AAC is better top-to-bottom than the MWC ever was. The highs may not be quite as high but are very comparable (TCU/ Utah vs. UCF/ USF/ Good Memphis or Houston) and there is a much more tolerable middle (Air Force? SDSU? vs. Average Memphis/ Average Houston/ Navy clownball).
 
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