A 5% chance of making a 4-team playoff, coupled with a 10% chance of winning 2 games equals a 0.5% chance of winning a NC under a 4-team format.
A 100% chance of making an 8-team playoff, coupled with a 1% chance of winning 3 games equals a 1.0% chance of winning a NC under an 8-team format.
So an 8-team format, using your numbers, doubles a G5’s chance of winning a NC.
Math.
Yes, it does. But it much more measurably improves the odds that the Alabamas and Ohio States ultimately win. That's my point.
Whether the G5s odds are .5% or 1%....they aren't going to be winning.